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David Nir's morning election digest brought this story to my attention today and he highlighted and interesting point this morning:


Could the open seat Arizona Senate race actually be moving into Tossup territory? Although the supply of nonpartisan public polls is scant, we keep seeing Democratic polls showing this a race within a few points one way or the other, with no GOP response (much like Indiana, another state the Republicans probably didn't anticipate having to contest).
Nir's analysis comes from this latest internal poll from Dr. Richard Carmona's (D) campaign that shows Carmona trailing Jeff Flake (R) by one point:


Flake led Carmona by 1 point in the poll. Forty-four percent of those surveyed said they backed Flake, while 43 percent backed Carmona. Three percent said they supported a libertarian candidate. - Roll Call, 9/26/12
The live-interview survey, conducted by Anzalone Lizst Research from Sept. 18-23, surveyed 600 likely voters.  It also highlights that both Flake and Carmona have great positive approval numbers but Flake, who is more well known, has higher disapproval views than Carmona:
Flake and Carmona have net positive ratings. Thirty-eight percent of respondents had a favorable impression of Flake, while 32 percent had an unfavorable impression of him. As for Carmona, 34 percent viewed him positively, while 15 percent had a negative view of him. - Roll Call, 9/26/12
If you've been following this race, it makes sense why this race is closer than it appears.  Flake had a nasty primary with Wil Cardon that hurt his image and the only real ads he keeps running are ones trying to tie Carmona to President Obama.  He's been going negative with his ads for a long time now whereas Carmona has hit Flake but also highlights his terrific resume, as seen in this new ad he released yesterday:

Real Clear Politics is taking notice of these polls and have moved Arizona into the Toss Up category:


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We've already seen two polls show Carmona either leading by five:


Or trailing by one:


Flake's nervous and he should be.  No doubt he's begging his Club Of Growth buddies to help bail him out.  Dr. Carmona has been running a terrific campaign, so lets help him win:


Originally posted to pdc on Wed Sep 26, 2012 at 06:00 PM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

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