Here is my full analysis of the new Minnesota state legislative maps complete with individual race ratings for every seat.  Needless to say, I do not know everything about every region of the state nor did I research hardly any of the challengers in each race.  So ultimately, my ratings rely more on the numbers and less on personal or anecdotal information that can only be known by knowing each race on a deeper level.  I'd say this lead my ratings to being somewhat conservative, particularly in the suburbs.  But at the same time, by eliminating my personal feelings that can't be factually proven, my ratings become almost an over-all rating for the map itself versus an analysis of how I think 2012 will go.  Particularly since it's hard to judge how it will go here in Minnesota as even while Obama is expected to come close to his 2008 margins, I think we'll see differences in where those votes are coming from within the state.  And, we also have areas in the state where Obama winning by 10% isn't enough to carry state legislative races over the finish line.

The courts tried to change as little of the map as possible, while totally ignoring incumbent residency in the process.  Lots of people got screwed over, but ultimately, the map changed little.  It was a given that the DFL would lose a state house seat in Minneapolis and St. Paul apiece, with the a Greater MN seat of theirs also most likely.  This was to make room for new seats in the exurbs, and this thinking came to fruition.  But as I say above, this doesn't help the Republicans very much.  The main problem for them is that they won so many seats in 2010 that they have very few pick-up opportunities.  In fact, if it weren't for some opportune retirements, it's likely they wouldn't have picked up anything.  Below are a map of the state senate and the state house showing how I rate them along with the summation of the ratings.  The main thing to point out on these maps is that every single toss-up seat is held by Republicans.  Also, we only need 5 seats to tie, 6 to win, the state house, and four seats in the state senate to win the majority there.


Safe GOP: 21; Likely GOP: 4; Lean GOP: 3; Toss-Up: 10; Lean DFL: 2; Likely DFL: 3; Safe DFL: 24


Safe GOP: 44; Likely GOP: 8; Lean GOP: 6; Toss-Up: 14; Lean DFL: 7; Likely DFL: 7; Safe DFL: 48

Things to Know For this to Make Sense
First thing to note is how our districting works.  We have a map of 67 senate districts (SD's) and each of these broken down into two state house seats, an A and a B.

Second would be the tables.  Bolded seats in the "Prognosis" column are pick-ups.  New seats were gamed out to see where they came from and to see if it was a pick-up or not.

In the incumbent column, I included obviously all incumbents running for the seat and I also included state representatives looking for an upgrade to the state senate seat.  You can tell what type of "incumbent" they are by looking at the info in the parentheses after their name.  The info within that is their political party and also their old seat under the 2000-2010 map.  This way you can also see if they got moved to a different seat as I matched up new districts and old districts as well.  Also, people in italics are incumbents who lost in the endorsement.  Bolded people are ones who lost in the primary.

And one thing that could be a head scratcher is how could an SD get, say more DFL while both state house seats got more Republican.  In those situations, it's because senate seats ended up with different pairings of house seats so maybe the 34A got more Republican.  But it's still less Republican than the old 33B and now 34A got paired up with the old 33A making a new SD that is more DFL while both house seats got more Republican than their old iterations.

Edit: Should have noted that Presidential result numbers are the margin of victory, with D and R notating which party got that margin of victory.

Northwest Minnesota


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD1 D.37 SD1 D.36 D.01 DFL Safe DFL LeRoy Stumpf (DFL:SD1)
1A R3.54 1A R3.95 D.41 GOP Lean GOP Dan Fabian (R:1A)
1B D4.31 1B D4.59 R.28 GOP Toss-Up Debria Kiel (R:1B)
SD2 R3.32 SD2 D1.82 R5.14 DFL Lean DFL Rod Skoe (DFL:SD2)
2A R.13 2B R1.44 D1.31 GOP Toss-Up David Hancock (R:2B)
2B R6.67 2A D5.37 R12.05 DFL Toss-Up Open
SD4 D12.17 SD9 D9.85 D2.32 DFL Likely DFL Kent Eken (DFL:2A)
4A D18.41 9A D17.77 D.64 GOP Likely DFL Open
4B D6.43 9B D1.84 D4.59 DFL Safe DFL Paul Marquart (DFL:9B)
SD8 R11.35 SD10 R14.01 D2.67 GOP Safe GOP Bill Ingrebrigtsen (R:SD11)
8A R11.96 10A R9.68 R2.27 GOP Safe GOP Bud Nornes (R:10A)
8B R10.78 10B R18.44 D7.66 GOP Safe GOP Mary Franson (R:11B)
SD9 R16.7 SD4 R4.71 R11.99 GOP Safe GOP Paul Gazelka (R:SD12)
9A R16.11 11B 11.86 R4.25 GOP Safe GOP Open
9B R17.31 12B R16.36 R.95 GOP Safe GOP Open
The only major change from the current map in Northwest Minnesota would be the new 2B and new 4B, as the new 4B took the most DFL territory from the current version of 2B, so one becomes more DFL while another more GOP.  As a result, two DFL state house incumbents were paired into 4B, and 2B becomes 12.05% more GOP and is now open to boot.  The DFL still does have a chance to hold this seat with Brita Sailer running for us, who represented the district to the north from 2007-2011 but was moved into this district.  And, 4A is now an open seat as long-time public servant, Republican Morrie Lanning, is retiring so this should be an easy pick-up for the DFL.  Over-all, the DFL were better of under the old map, but Manning retires means we should at least break even.

Northeast Minnesota


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD3 D20.09 SD6 D22.21 R2.12 DFL Safe DFL Tom Bakk (DFL:SD6)
3A D15.01 6A D19.01 R4 DFL Safe DFL David Dill (DFL:6A)
3B D25.3 3B D25.4 R.1 DFL Safe DFL Mary Murphy (DFL:6B)
SD5 D5.47 SD3 D8.54 R3.08 DFL Safe DFL John Carlson (R:SD4); Tom Saxhaug (DFL:SD3)
5A D6.1 4A D6.3 R.2 DFL Likely DFL John Persell (DFL:4A); Larry Howes (R:4B)
5B D4.38 3A D13.36 R8.98 DFL Safe DFL Carolyn McElfatrick (R:3B); Tom Anzelc (DFL:3A)
SD6 D31.17 SD5 R31.26 R.09 DFL Safe DFL David Tomassoni (DFL:SD5)
6A D31.13 5B D29.63 D1.49 DFL Safe DFL Carly Melin (DFL:5B)
6B D31.21 5A D32.82 R1.61 DFL Safe DFL Open
SD7 D40.45 SD7 D41.01 R.56 DFL Safe DFL Roger Reinert (DFL:SD7)
7A D37.7 7A D36.1 D1.6 DFL Safe DFL Thomas Huntley (DFL:7A)
7B D43.36 7B D47.18 R3.82 DFL Safe DFL Kerry Gauthier (DFL:7B)
SD10 R6.06 SD12 R9.98 D3.92 GOP Toss-Up Open
10A R7.28 12A R3.97 R3.31 DFL Likely DFL John Ward (DFL:12A)
10B R4.93 3B D3.02 R7.95 GOP Toss-Up Open
SD11 D12.74 SD8 D9.17 D3.57 DFL Safe DFL Tony Lourey (DFL:SD8)
11A D27.33 8A D25.8 D1.53 DFL Safe DFL Open
11B R2.65 8B R7.32 D4.66 GOP Lean DFL Open
Northeastern Minnesota is where the DFL was given a major solid as the population loss could have easily meant a state house seat would be lost from the DFL.  Instead, the court eliminated a GOP seat from central MN and shifted accordingly.  The "left-over" Iron Range SD5 was made more Republican and without our benefit of incumbency, could become questionable in the future.  The courts did remedy this in other ways, but over-all, I'd say a DFLer should be content with this portion of the map.

5B becomes considerably more Republican without Koochiching County, but still in a manner where the DFL majority should always dominate over the new "tail-side" of the district.  And to help out SD5 over-all from 5B's reddening, they attach the new 5A to it, which has seen it's former SD-partner eliminated.  And that eliminated seat, the old 4B, which is where 10A, 5A, 5B, and the violet, yellow, and indigo districts that are cut-off meet up on the map, had a seven term GOP incumbent.  10B does become more Republican by losing it's Iron Range Cities and moving southwest, and 11B becomes more DFL and a solid pick-up opportunity as it's an open seat with the guy who just lost in 2010, Tim Faust, running for us once again.

St. Cloud


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD12 R8.23 SD11 R7.26 R.98 GOP Likely GOP Torrey Westrom (R:11A)
12A D.44 11A R2.8 D3.24 GOP Toss-Up Open
12B R18.22 13A R14.48 R3.74 GOP Safe GOP Paul Anderson (R:13A)
SD13 R10.62 SD14 R11.29 D.67 GOP Safe GOP Michelle Fischbach (R:SD14)
13A R10.63 14B R10.51 R.12 DFL Likely GOP Open
13B R10.59 14A R11.99 D1.4 GOP Safe GOP Tim O'Driscoll (R:14A)
SD14 D5.45 SD15 D5.16 D.29 GOP Toss-Up John Pederson (R:SD15)
14A R.81 15A R2.38 D1.57 GOP Lean GOP Steve Gottwalt (R:15A)
14B D11.61 15B D14.44 R2.83 GOP Lean DFL King Banaian (R:15B)
SD15 R16.83 SD16 R19 D2.16 GOP Safe GOP Dave Brown (R:SD16)
15A R11.5 16A R13.75 D2.25 GOP Safe GOP Sondra Erickson (R:16A)
15B R22.24 New Seat Safe GOP Open
The courts combined DFL portions along the Dakota border to make a competitive house seat for the DFL, but the Senate pairing rearrangements gave the GOP incumbent a pretty safe senate seat to run for.  So we do have a seat Obama won that's open, but it's hard to see much of this being a positive considering what happened in Southwestern Minnesota.  Further east, the courts, instead of creating another exurban seat, created another St. Cloud metro seat with 15B.  It's Republican as hell, but I like seeing extra representation for my hometown area.  13A is now an open seat and without DFL wonder boy Larry Hosch, we're pretty much doomed.  The central St. Cloud seat, 14B, does become a little less DFL, but we should still be able to pick it back up after an embarrassing loss in 2010 when we lost by 13 votes, and where the district hosts the second largest university in the state.

Southwest Minnesota


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD16 R5.41 SD21 R8.01 D2.59 GOP Likely GOP Gary Dahms (R:SD21)
16A D1.14 21A R4.46 D5.6 GOP Toss-Up Chris Swedzinski
16B R12.01 21B R11.54 R.47 GOP Safe GOP Paul Torkelson (R:21B)
SD17 R.3 13 R10.11 D9.81 GOP Toss-Up Lyle Koenen (DFL:20B); Joe Gimse (R:SD13)
17A D2.06 20B D3.67 R1.62 DFL Lean DFL Andrew Falk (DFL:20A)
17B R2.73 13B R5.57 D2.84 GOP Lean GOP Bruce Vogel (R:13B)
SD18 R16.77 SD18 R15.54 R1.24 GOP Safe GOP Scott Newman (R:SD18)
18A R14.38 18B R12.5 R1.88 GOP Safe GOP Dean Urdahl (R:18B)
18B R19.36 18A R18.46 R.9 GOP Safe GOP Glenn Gruenhagen (R:25A)
SD19 D14.69 SD23 D14.75> R.06 DFL Safe DFL Kathy Sheran (DFL:SD23)
19A D12.05 23A D5.67 D6.39 DFL Safe DFL Terry Morrow (DFL:23A)
19B D17.35 23B D19.16 R1.81 DFL Safe DFL Kathy Brynaert (DFL:23B)
SD22 R5.09 SD22 R5.88 D.79 GOP Lean GOP Open
22A R7.66 22A R8.47 D.81 GOP Safe GOP Joe Schomacker (R:22A)
22B R2.16 22B R3.14 D.99 GOP Safe GOP Rod Hamilton (R:22B)
SD23 R6.77 SD24 R6.46 R.31 GOP Safe GOP Julie Rosen (R:SD24)
23A R12.9 24A R11.45 R1.45 GOP Safe GOP Bob Gunther (R:24A)
23B R.62 24B R2.11 D1.49 GOP Safe GOP Tony Cornish (R:24B)
The Southwestern region saw the only true mash-up of districts where the two incumbents have a near even split between old constituents and new constituents.  This mash-up resulted in the DFL getting a map where we can run the table and end up better off, but the  more likely scenario is we got screwed. And the courts did this needlessly as to put it back to the old way, all we need to do is re-pair 12B with 17B and 12A with 17A.  But alas, our Lean DFL was combined with there Safe/Likely GOP, and we got washed out.  But as I said, it's possible we could run the table.

Southeast Minnesota


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD20 D.43 SD25 D.8 R.37 GOP Toss-Up Open
20A R15.15 25A R8.81 R6.33 GOP Safe GOP Kelby Woodard (R:25B)
20B D14.73 25B D9.15 D5.58 GOP Likely DFL Open
SD21 R.16 SD28 D1.69 R1.85 GOP Likely GOP John Howe (R:SD28)
21A D5.63 28A R6.27 R.64 GOP Likely GOP Tim Kelly (R:28A)
21B R6.17 28B R3.01 R3.16 GOP Safe GOP Steve Drazkowski (R:28B)
SD24 R4.19 SD26 R3.73 R.46 GOP Lean GOP Open
24A R6.08 26A R6.08 Same DFL Likely GOP Open
24B R2.05 26B D.09 R2.14 DFL Lean DFL Patti Fritz (DFL:26B)
SD25 D1.27 SD29 D.57 D.69 GOP Safe GOP David Senjem (R:SD29)
25A R5.96 29A R5.33 R.64 GOP Safe GOP Duane Quam (R:29A)
25B D8.17 29B D7.71 D.47 DFL Likely DFL Kim Norton (DFL:29B)
SD26 D2.68 SD30 D1.81 D.87 GOP Lean GOP Carla Nelson (R:SD30)
26A D14.28 30A D15.91 R1.63 DFL Safe DFL Tina Liebling (DFL:30A)
26B R8.2 30B R8.77 D.57 GOP Safe GOP Mike Benson (GOP:30B)
SD27 D19.17 SD27 D19.21 R.04 DFL Safe DFL Dan Sparks (DFL:SD27)
27A D15.63 27A D18.14 R2.51 GOP Toss-Up Rich Murray (R:27A)
27B D23.14 27B D20.35 D2.79 DFL Safe DFL Jeanne Poppe (DFL:27B)
SD28 D15.74 SD31 D17.11 R1.37 GOP Toss-Up Jeremy Miller (R:SD31)
28A D22.14 31A D22.11 D.03 DFL Safe DFL Gene Pelowski (DFL:31A)
28B D9.45 31B D11.85 R2.39 GOP Lean GOP Greg Davids (R:31B)
Southeastern Minnesota may have seen the least amount of change compared to any other region, particularly due to the city of Rochester continuing it's trend of growing in the lower 20th percentile, now making the city the third in the state to be over 100k pop.  This balanced out the long-term trend of rural areas losing population so we basically got left with tweaks instead of changes.  The most prominent tweak was in SD20, which is a swing district because the city of Northfield, with it's two private colleges, balances out the rural territory.  Within this SD, the courts gave 20A the dark-red exurban territory that was in 20B last decade, making the seat so heavily DFL now that it should be impossible for us to lose, even in a 2010 scenario.  Along with that almost automatic pick-up, the DFL stands to gain ground in this region since 2010 was such a disaster for us.



New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD29 R15.19 SD19 R17.35 D2.15 GOP Safe GOP Bruce Anderson (R:19A)
29A R18.05 19B R20.58 D2.52 GOP Safe GOP Joe McDonald (R:19B)
29B R1216 19A R13.28 D1.11 GOP Safe GOP Open
SD30 R18.7 New Seat Safe GOP Mary Kiffmeyer (R:16B)
30A R16 16B R23.49 D7.49 GOP Safe GOP Open
30B R21.44 New Seat Safe GOP Open
SD31 R20.5 SD48 R12.79 R7.71 GOP Safe GOP Michael Jungbauer (R:SD48); Michelle Benson (R:SD49)
31A R23.05 New Seat Safe GOP Kurt Daudt (R:17A)
31B R18.29 48A R17.27 R1.02 GOP Safe GOP Tom Hackbarth (R:48A)
SD32 R11.22 SD17 R12.25 D1.02 GOP Safe GOP Sean Nienow (R:17)
32A R12.02 17A R15.03 D3.01 GOP Safe GOP Open
32B R10.43 17B R9.69 R.75 GOP Safe GOP Bob Barrett (R:17B:)
As expected, the exurbs scored big with a new seat in the northwest exurbs and a new seat to the north of Minneapolis/St. Paul, coming at the expense of the two districts eliminated in each respective twin city.  This comes as no surprise as I graduated from high school in the new 30B, having moved there in 2000, and it's a completely different place.  It's practically suburban, at this point, so losing solid DFL seats to this solid GOP area came as no surprise.

Southwest Metro


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD47 R16.8 R34 R15.26 R1.54 GOP Safe GOP Julianne Ortman (R:SD34)
47A R23.3 34A R22.34 R.97 GOP Safe GOP Ernie Leidiger (R:34A)
47B R10.98 34B R6.63 R4.34 GOP Safe GOP Joe Hoppe (R:34B)
SD48 D5.02 SD42 D6.24 R1.22 GOP Safe GOP David Hann (R:SD42)
48A D7.6 42A D10.29 R2.68 GOP Toss-Up Kirk Stensrud (R:42A)
48B D2.24 42B D2.52 R.28 GOP Safe GOP Jenifer Loon (R:42B)
SD55 R10.39 SD35 R10.09 R.3 GOP Safe GOP Open
55A R.8 35A R5.22 D4.41 GOP Safe GOP Michael Beard (R:35A)
55B R18.36 35B R15.56 R2.8 GOP Safe GOP Open

The southwest metro saw a bit of change, but nothing very drastic.  The new SD55 loses the suburb of Savage, as population growth in Scott County was 45.2%.  This meant that the former 35A shrunk considerably to become the new 55A, which makes it a toss-up at the top of the ticket, but it's still a long way from electing a DFLer at the state legislative level.  The new 48A is a more Republican version of it's former self, which sucks considering it's a suburban seat that's been shifting our way and that we held from 2005-2010.  It's still a toss-up and that's because it's hard to predict if enough Obama voters will vote DFL down-ballot.

South Metro


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD51 D11.22 SD38 D10.77 D.45 GOP Toss-Up Ted Daley (R:SD38)
51A D14.42 38A D13.92 D.5 GOP Toss-Up Diane Anderson (R:38A)
51B D8.08 38B D7.65 D.44 GOP Toss-Up Doug Wardlow (R:38B)
SD52 D15.81 SD39 D15.27 D.54 DFL Safe DFL James Metzen (DFL:SD39)
52A D21.35 39A D19.26 D2.09 DFL Safe DFL Rick Hansen (DFL:39A)
52B D10.74 39B D11.41 R.67 DFL Safe DFL Joe Atkins (DFL:39B)
SD54 D9.01 SD57 D9.78 R.77 DFL Likely DFL Katie Sieben (DFL:SD57)
54A D14.14 57A D15.72 R1.58 GOP Lean DFL Open
54B D4.05 57B D4.44 R.4 GOP Likely GOP Denny McNamara (R:57B)
SD56 D.38 SD40 D10.52 R10.14 GOP Safe GOP Dan Hall (R:SD40)
56A R1.73 New Seat Safe GOP Pam Myhra (R:40A)
56B D2.26 40A D8.59 R6.34 GOP Lean GOP Open
SD57 D3.21 SD37 D4 R.79 GOP Lean GOP Open
57A D5 37A D5.86 R.86 GOP Likely GOP Tara Mack (R:37A)
57B D1.38 37B D2.29 R.91 GOP Lean GOP Open
SD58 R9.97 SD36 R9.47 R.51 GOP Safe GOP
58A R11.19 36A R10.31 R.88 GOP Safe GOP Mary Liz Holberg (R:36A)
58B R8.74 36B R8.67 R.07 GOP Safe GOP Pat Garofalo (R:36B)
As been kind of the theme of the map, much happened in this part of the state.  Because of population growth in the Scott County exurbs, we get the new 56A.  It's more of a southwest metro seat, but because of it's senate pairing, it ends up here in the south metro.  It's too Republican for us to win for the time being, but it does let us have a better shot at an open 56B.  54A is also open after newly elected GOPer John Kriesel decided after having been in the army and now being a politician, he is going to miss out on his kid's childhoods.  But he'll be back and he'll piss us off with his ability to win DFL constituencies once again.

North Metro


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD35 R11.55 SD49 10.63 R.92 GOP Safe GOP Branden Petersen (R:49B)
35A R6.88 48B R7.78 D.9 GOP Safe GOP Jim Abeler (R:48B)
35B R15.58 49A R19.94 D4.36 GOP Safe GOP Peggy Scott (R:49A)
SD36 D2.76 SD47 D4.25 R1.48 GOP Toss-Up Benjamin Kruse (GOP:SD47)
36A R1.71 47A R2.09 D.38 DFL Lean GOP Open
36B D7.83 47B D9.84 R2 DFL Likely DFL Melissa Hortman (DFL:47B)
SD37 D3.97 SD51 D6.05 R2.09 GOP Toss-Up Pam Wolf (GOP:SD51)
37A D8.02 49B D.45 D7.57 GOP Lean DFL Open
37B 0 51A D1.46 R1.46 GOP Lean GOP Tim Sanders (GOP:51A)
SD40 D32.99 SD46 D34.08 R1.09 DFL Safe DFL Chris Eaton (DFL:SD46)
40A D35.43 46A D36.09 R.066 DFL Safe DFL Michael Nelson (DFL:46A)
40B D30.76 46B D32.26 R1.49 DFL Safe DFL Debra Hilstrom (DFL:46B)
SD41 D19.85 SD50 D16.74 D3.12 DFL Safe DFL Barbara Goodwin (DFL:SD50)
41A D17.96 51B D12.2 D5.76 DFL Safe DFL Open; Tom Tillbery (DFL:51B)
41B D21.73 50A D25.2 R3.46 DFL Safe DFL Carolyn Laine (DFL:50A)
Our position at retaking the senate will be made tougher by the courts tweaking two seats we held for a long time in this region.  Both SD36 and SD37 get more Republican, and SD41 gets packed with more DFLers.  We do get a great pick-up opportunity with 37A, which is the reformed version of a seat that once sat slightly further north.  With this iteration, and with our former incumbent who lost in 2010 running again, we should have the slight favor, even with it being a suburban seat where Obama winning by a high-single digit margin isn't always enough.  36A is now open and we'll probably lose that one, which is a bummer.

Northeast Metro


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD38 R3.21 SD53 D2.18 R5.39 GOP Safe GOP Roger Chamberlain (R:SD53)
38A R5.1 53A R.94 R4.16 GOP Safe GOP Linda Runbeck (R:53A)
38B R1.43 53B D5.34 R6.77 GOP Likely GOP Matt Dean (R:52B); Carol McFarlane (R:53B)
SD39 R.58 SD52 R4.56 D3.98 GOP Lean GOP Open
39A R4.04 52A R8.95 D4.91 GOP Safe GOP Bob Dettmer (R:52A)
39B D2.78 56A D2.93 R.16 GOP Likely GOP Kathy Lohmer (R:56A)
SD42 D9.6 SD54 D17.25 R7.65 DFL Lean DFL Bev Scalze (DFL:54B)
42A D5.37 50B D9.29 R3.92 DFL Toss-Up Open
42B D13.74 54B D12.97 D.87 DFL Lean DFL Open
SD43 D15.67 SD55 D18.08 R2.41 DFL Safe DFL Charles Wiger (DFL:SD55)
43A D14.53 New Seat Safe DFL Open
43B D16.91 55A D20.61 R3.7 DFL Safe DFL Leon Lillie (DFL:55A)
SD53 D8.81 SD56 D5.01 D3.79 GOP Toss-Up Ted Lillie (R:SD56)
53A D16.05 55B D15.66 D.4 DFL Safe DFL Open
53B D.49 56B D6.8 R6.31 GOP Likely GOP Andrea Kieffer (R:56B)
The courts decided to even out the inevitable elimination of DFL seats in Minneapolis/St. Paul in the Northeast Metro here.  They eliminate the House Majority Leader's seat and create a Safe DFL seat with the new 43A, even going so far as to divide the city of Maplewood between four different state house seats.  This rearranges all of the state senate seats to boot, all in our favor.  SD39 becomes more DFL and is open after two incumbents were paired up here and one announced he'd retire after forcing the other incumbent to move to the much more DFL SD53, which is also another big pick-up opportunity.

West Metro


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD33 R11.2 SD33 R7.51 R3.69 GOP Safe GOP Open; Connie Doepke (R:33B)
33A R19.62 33A R11.22 R8.41 GOP Safe GOP Open
33B R3.13 33B R3.62 D.48 GOP Safe GOP Open; Steve Smith (R:33A)
SD34 R7.59 SD32 R10.37 D2.78 GOP Safe GOP Warren Limmer (GOP:SD32)
34A R12.26 32A R16.98 D4.73 GOP Safe GOP Joyce Peppin (GOP:32A)
34B R3.35 32B R1.31 R2.04 GOP Safe GOP Kurt Zellers (GOP:32B)
SD44 D8.53 SD43 D10.52 R1.99 DFL Likely DFL Terri Bonoff (DFL:SD43)
44A D3.08 43A D6.69 R3.61 GOP Likely GOP Sarah Anderson (GOP:43A)
44B D13.23 43B D14.57 R1.35 DFL Likely DFL John Benson (DFL:43B)
SD45 D22.69 SD45 D22.48 D.22 DFL Safe DFL Anne Rest (DFL:SD45)
45A D17.88 45A D18.08 R.19 DFL Safe DFL Lyndon Carlson (DFL:45A)
45B D27.4 45B D26.55 D.84 DFL Safe DFL Open
SD46 D35.59 SD44 D37.28 R1.69 DFL Safe DFL Ron Latz (DFL:SD44)
46A D34.4 44B D37.63 R3.23 DFL Safe DFL Ryan Winkler DFL:44B)
46B D36.91 44A D36.91 0 DFL Safe DFL Steve Simon (DFL:44A)
SD49 D10.76 SD41 D10.8 R.04 GOP Toss-Up Keith Downey (GOP:41A)
49A D12.24 41A D12.6 R.36 GOP Likely DFL Open
49B D9.37 41B D8.8 D.57 GOP Toss-Up Open
The Western suburbs have been holding their own when it comes to population growth with there being little to no extremes in loss or growth in any given city.  Thus, this portion of the map saw the least change of anywhere in the state.  Newly numbered SD44, where the DFL was able to have a couple of rare success stories in the upper-class, second ring suburbs last election, did become a smidge more Republican.  But the city of Minnetonka's new status as solid DFL should almost always be able to counter-balance any combination mapmakers can create, save for a Minnetonka plus Lake Minnetonka configuration, so our incumbents should be fine here.  

There was, however, a lot of action when it came to how the candidates for the general election shook-out.  First, in the Lake Minnetonka area encompassed by SD33, state house incumbent Steve Smith's hometown of Mound was thrown into Connie Doepke's house seat of 33B.  But, long-time state senator Gen Olson retired so Doepke ran for senate and Smith was able to avoid having to decide to move or face-off against an incumbent.  This all gets blown to shit, anyway.  Smith is more moderate and even though he went from a seat Obama lost by 11% to one he lost by 3%, thus making him a better fit politically, Smith still lost in the primary 70%-30% to a tea-party upstart due to the area being new to him.  Doepke also become a loser in the primary by 2% for reasons I can't quite figure out since she was a solid GOP vote.  She lost the GOP endorsement handedly and several local area legislators endorsed her opponent, including US Rep. Paulsen, and while a primary lost wasn't shocking, it seemed rather needless.

SD49 also had some candidate recruitment worth mentioning and unlike SD33, where Obama only won six precincts total, SD49 sees a lot of opportunity for the DFL.  First, the incumbent state senator decided to retire after his leadership position was revoked when he failed to publicly mention an affair the senate majority leader was having with a staff member. So, state Rep. Keith Downey decided to seek a promotion to the state senate instead of seek re-election to his house seat, which Obama won by over 12%.  Downey was first elected there in 2008 with 36.7% of the vote as the GOP threw out an 18-year GOP incumbent, Ron Erhardt, because he voted with the DFL to override a Pawlenty veto and Erhardt decided to run as an Indy.  Downey managed to win by  3% in 2010, but 2012 should be a very different story in Edina and west Bloomington as Downey is a tea-party loon, thus making the state senate district he is running for a great pick-up opportunity for the DFL.  Also, with Downey leaving his state house seat behind, Erhardt is running again for the open seat, but this time as a DFLer so I consider this a likely flip, especially since Downey only got lucky before.  And to compound the problem further for the GOP, they won back 49B from us in 2010, but their incumbent is already retiring and we have our former incumbent running for us once again.  If one wants to find some of the most likely seats to flip, I'd choose SD49, even though my rankings show a bit of conservatism.

Minneapolis plus Southern Suburbs


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD59 D65.37 SD58 D68.65 R3.29 DFL Safe DFL Bobby Joe Champion (DFL:58B)
59A D64.92 58A D63.37 D1.55 DFL Safe DFL Joe Mullery (DFL:58A)
59B D65.8 58B D73.55 R7.74 DFL Safe DFL Open
SD60 D58.29 SD59 D58.3 R.01 DFL Safe DFL Kari Dziedzic (DFL:SD59)
60A D55.96 59A D55.79 D.16 DFL Safe DFL Dianne Loeffler (DFL:59A)
60B D60.82 59B D60.69 D.13 DFL Safe DFL Phyllis Kahn (DFL:59B)
SD61 D62.62 SD60 D63.85 R1.23 DFL Safe DFL Scott Dibble (DFL:SD60)
61A DD65.39 60A D62.74 D2.65 DFL Safe DFL Frank Hornstein (DFL:60B); Marion Greene (DFL:60A)
61B D59.64 60B D64.91 R5.28 DFL Safe DFL Paul Thissen (DFL:63A)
SD62 D75.64 SD61 D78.65 R3.01 DFL Safe DFL Jeff Hayden (DFL:SD61)
62A D78.02 61A D78.17 R.14 DFL Safe DFL Karen Clark (DFL:61A)
62B DD73.75 61B D79.09 R5.33 DFL Safe DFL Susan Allen (DFL:61B)
SD63 D58.52 SD62 D60.61 R2.09 DFL Safe DFL Patricia Torres Ray (DFL:SD62)
63A D66.94 62A D66.03 D.91 DFL Safe DFL Jim Davnie (DFL:62A)
63B D50.09 62B D55.52 R5.44 DFL Safe DFL Jean Wagenius (DFL:62B)
SD50 D20.96 SD63 D34.21 R13.25 DFL Safe DFL Open, Ken Kelash (DFL:SD63)
50A D27.96 63B D25.87 D2.09 DFL Safe DFL Linda Slocum (DFL:63B)
50B D14.53 40B D12.23 D2.3 DFL Safe DFL Ann Lenczewski (DFL:40B)
Minneapolis unsurprisingly lost a state house seat, as the previous map already featured a hybrid Minneapolis/suburban state house seat.  But incumbent state House Minority Leader, Paul Thissen, was put into his own southwest Mpls seat, nonetheless, with the new 61B.  The Uptown based seat, the new 61A, now picks up a few precincts further south, which spelt doom for recently elected Rep. Marion Greene, who lost to Rep. Frank Hornstein, even though she represents much more of the new district, currently.  The eliminated Mpls seat meant that the new 50A needed a new state senate pairing, which logically set it with 50B, as the old iteration had 50B go "south of the river", as we call it, to pair up with a Dakota County suburban seat to form a state senate district.  This has previously given the GOP a shot at the resulting state senate district, but with the new 50B paired up with an inner-ring suburban seat, the GOP has no shot here.  But, this doesn't result in a gain for the DFL since the elimination of a state house seat in Minneapolis equates to this being a former Minneapolis held state senate seat.

St. Paul


New Dist. 2008 Pres. Old Dist. 2008 Pres. Net Change Inc. Party Prognosis Incumbent
SD64 D51.45 SD64 D50.4 D1.05 DFL Safe DFL Richard Cohen (DFL:SD64)
64A D58.77 64A D57.41 D1.36 DFL Safe DFL Erin Murphy (DFL:64A
64B D43.56 64B D43.56 0 DFL Safe DFL Michael Paymar (DFL:64B)
SD65 D60 SD65 D59.96 D.04 DFL Safe DFL Sandra Pappas (DFL:SD65)
65A D65.68 65A D67.43 R1.76 DFL Safe DFL Rena Moran (DFL:65A
65B D54.99 65B D54.81 D.18 DFL Safe DFL Carlos Mariani (DFL:65B)
SD66 D40.37 SD66 D55.91 R15.54 DFL Safe DFL John Marty (DFL:SD54) ; Mary Jo McGuire(DFL:SD66)
66A D30.79 54A D21.44 D9.35 DFL Safe DFL Alice Hausman (DFL:66B)
66B D53.34 66A D54.58 R1.24 DFL Safe DFL John Lesch (DFL:66A)
SD67 D47.42 SD67 D46.11 D1.32 DFL Safe DFL Open
67A D48.24 67A D25.78 D2.46 DFL Safe DFL Tim Mahoney (DFL:67A
67B D46.69 67B D46.72 R.03 DFL Safe DFL Sheldon Johnson (DFL:67B)
St. Paul also lost a state house seat, but luckily for state Rep. Alice Hausman, the DFLer she was paired with decided to retire prior to redistricting was finalized, so suburban 66A was hers to win.  (66A now only contains three precincts in St. Paul proper.)   The suburbanite state senator, John Marty for SD66, did beat the St. Paulite, and that's because Marty is the de facto liberal progressive leader in that chamber.  But poor Mary Jo, she was ousted from legislative office after the last round of redistricting, as well.
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