OK

I saw a diary by Dr. Squid and I decided to add my own bit on raw vote numbers.  In my case it was to analyze and put the lie to any accusation of fraud in the result of the election.  I know there's been so much yelling about fraud from the right wing that it's easy to tune out, and it seems to have settled down since the Tuesday but it's sure to raise its ugly head again soon.

What I wanted to know was, if you order states by the margin of winning as a percent of votes cast in the state for Romney and Obama then how many (and which) states could have swung the other way with Obama still winning.  The results may surprise you.

Continued under the squiggle...

The states with the smallest percentage win that could have gone to Romney without affecting the outcome were Florida, Ohio, and Virginia.  Colorado would have tipped the result to Romney.  

In some sense the states aren't a surprise - they are the known swing states.  What surprised me is that all three could have gone the other way without altering the results.

Looking at the margin, Florida is the closest.  To change the outcome over 26,000 votes would have had to change.  The other swing states would need over 50,000 votes changed each - representing ~1 to 2% of their electorate.  

Continuing, even if the necessary states had swung to Romney by the same number as decided the election for Obama, Obama would still have won the popular vote by over 2.6 million votes (not that it would matter in that instance).

That's the objective evidence.

My conclusion is that any hypothesis that Obamas reelection was somehow fraudulent or undeserved is rejected by the evidence.  But there are certainly conservatives and Tea Party "independents" who are making those statements and are not shy about doing so.  Searching for '"obama won by fraud" 2012' on google returns 1,270 results.  Variations on this return hundreds of millions of hits.

So are Republicans pursuing any charges of fraud seriously?  Or will any declarations of fraud be simple rhetoric (you have to love Trumps meltdown ;-)?  I'd argue that even if fraud had occurred (which I strongly contend did not happen) the margins are at a scale that would have been detected or could be discovered after the fact.  

On the other hand, if the charges of voter suppression for political purposes leveled by Democrats are true it would have significantly increased Obamas legitimate winning margin.

By the way, the numbers came from the Huffington Post election site.  Some were still changing as I extracted the data.  I double checked the data so I hope I didn't inject any errors.

State Abbr Obama Votes Romney Votes Elec Votes Obama Margin Margin % Running EV Total
District of Columbia DC 222,332 17,337 3 204,995 85.533% 3
Hawaii HI 303,090 119,494 4 183,596 43.446% 7
Vermont VT 199,259 92,700 3 106,559 36.498% 10
Rhode Island RI 274,342 155,355 4 118,987 27.691% 14
New York NY 3,873,680 2,225,482 29 1,648,198 27.023% 43
Maryland MD 1,527,686 904,970 10 622,716 25.598% 53
Massachusets MA 1,900,575 1,177,370 11 723,205 23.496% 64
California CA 5,658,572 3,685,045 55 1,973,527 21.122% 119
Delaware DE 242,547 165,476 3 77,071 18.889% 122
Connecticut CT 905,467 623,605 7 281,862 18.434% 129
New Jersey NJ 1,960,744 1,383,233 14 577,511 17.270% 143
Illinois IL 2,916,811 2,090,116 20 826,695 16.511% 163
Maine ME 397,754 290,437 4 107,317 15.594% 167
Washington WA 1,356,831 1,032,590 12 324,241 13.570% 179
Oregon OR 905,831 714,194 7 191,637 11.829% 186
New Mexico NM 408,312 331,915 5 76,397 10.321% 191
Michigan MI 2,490,290 2,097,107 16 393,183 8.571% 207
Minnesota MN 1,544,861 1,321,508 10 223,353 7.792% 217
Wisconsin WI 1,613,950 1,408,746 10 205,204 6.789% 227
Nevada NV 528,801 462,422 6 66,379 6.697% 233
New Hampshire NH 368,529 327,870 4 40,659 5.838% 237
Iowa IA 816,429 727,928 6 88,501 5.731% 243
Pennsylvania PA 2,907,448 2,619,583 20 287,865 5.208% 263
Colorado CO 1,238,490 1,125,391 9 113,099 4.784% 272
Virginia VA 1,905,528 1,789,618 13 115,910 3.137% 285
Ohio OH 2,697,308 2,593,789 18 103,519 1.956% 303
Florida FL 4,169,972 4,117,602 29 52,370 0.632% 332
^^ Obama
vv Romney
North Carolina NC 2,178,388 2,275,853 15 -97,465 -2.188% 206
Georgia GA 1,761,761 2,070,221 16 -308,460 -8.050% 191
Missouri MO 1,215,031 1,478,961 10 -263,930 -9.797% 175
Indiana IN 1,140,379 1,412,591 11 -272,212 -10.663% 165
South Carolina SC 845,756 1,049,507 9 -203,751 -10.751% 154
Arizona AZ 784,554 977,431 11 -192,877 -10.947% 145
Mississippi MS 526,671 671,832 6 -145,161 -12.112% 134
Montana MT 200,489 264,974 3 -64,485 -13.854% 128
Alaska AK 91,696 121,234 3 -29,538 -13.872% 125
Texas TX 3,294,440 4,555,799 38 -1,261,359 -16.068% 122
Louisiana LA 808,496 1,152,460 8 -343,964 -17.541% 84
South Dakota SD 144,988 210,541 3 -65,553 -18.438% 76
North Dakota ND 124,490 187,586 3 -63,096 -20.218% 73
Tennesee TN 953,043 1,453,097 11 -500,054 -20.782% 70
Alabama AL 793,620 1,252,453 9 -458,833 -22.425% 59
Kansas KS 427,918 678,719 6 -250,801 -22.663% 50
Kentucky KY 679,340 1,087,127 8 -407,787 -23.085% 44
Nebraska NE 289,154 462,972 5 -173,818 -23.110% 36
Arkansas AR 389,699 638,467 6 -248,768 -24.195% 31
West Virginia WV 234,925 412,406 5 -177,481 -27.417% 25
Idaho ID 212,560 420,750 4 -208,190 -32.873% 20
Oklahoma OK 442,647 889,372 7 -446,725 -33.537% 16
Wyoming WY 68,780 170,265 3 -101,485 -42.454% 9
Utah UT 229,463 671,747 6 -442,284 -49.077% 6
Total votes 61,173,727 58,167,248
Obama margin 3,006,479 -3,006,479
Romney win by same margins 2,621,581 -2,621,581
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