OK

Obama's victory may have proved the worth of statistical models based on probability, like Nate Silver's, but some Republicans have yet to acknowledge the value of math.  
Former New York  Republican Rep. Bob Turner (they guy who took Anthony Wiener's seat) lost his house to the fire on Breezy Point. Our sympathy to him for his loss.  But we have no sympathy for his statement to City and State that:

"You have two parts of global warming. On one, we have scientific measurements that there is global warming, and there is a both water temperatures and some average temperatures that are up maybe a degree in the past 20 years. Even the smallest of these—and it fits into historical and geological eras, and I am reasonably sure we’re going through a warm period; whether it’s temporary or long-term, I don’t know. Part B is the anthropogenic, where this is the man-made hydrocarbons that are changing the environment—I don’t know. We’ve spent billions trying to prove that, and the best we’ve come up with is scientific opinion. Now, the reason we have science is we don’t need opinion, but we haven’t been able to demonstrate that yet. And the levels of hydrocarbons are so miniscule that it takes a leap to say this is the cause; so before we rechannel all of our industry and lifestyles, I think we’re going to have to continue to prove the case, and I think all of the abuse and fraud on the part of many people who are getting these grants is a little telling."
In a recent entry, on his blog "Science as Culture, Culture as Science"  anthropologist Greg Laden notes a study by two scholars, Wigley, T., & Santer, B. (2012). A probabilistic quantification of the anthropogenic component of twentieth century global warming Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1585-8, which use the same kind of statistical math that Nate Silver used to predict President Obama's victory.  They find a greater than 90% change that global warming was caused by increases in greenhouse gases.  

Anthropogenic global warming is the truth, Congressman Turner, just like the truth that Romney was going to lose. We're glad you're what passes these days for a moderate Republican--as suggested by the your belief in "historical and geological eras."   So since you are liberal enough to accept Darwin, we'd like you to cross the bridge to reason.  Your house was destroyed as an effect of anthropogenic global warming.   It's not a matter of opinion, it's a fact that is over 90% likely to be true.  Just like Obama was over 90% likely to win. So do the math, Bob.      

Originally posted to jsoffer on Wed Nov 21, 2012 at 03:59 PM PST.

Also republished by Climate Hawks.

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