Investors and traders (BIG difference) are a fickle, quirky lot whose brains are hardwired to endure pain and illogic. A lot of these financial gamblers are rabid Reds, but not as many as you would imagine. This DFH counts himself one of this caste. Warren Buffett and Geo Soros were dieties among investors long before they became huge progressive proponents. Many other professional marketeers have been driven to the Right out of tax induced self interest... It is a vocation that strictly recruits with greed you know. One notion that seems to cut clean through political lines however, is the fear of the "Fiscal Cliff".
I find it ironically hilarious that hard core conservatives would cringe at the notion of the FC. It does, after all, embody the ultimate element of Austerian Economics. Cure the patient through starvation. It's already worked soooo well in Europe. Heck, if they can cripple more of their periferral economies the European Union might starve itself out of Recession by 2014 and then... Free markets look out! Prosperity is always just a strong case of financial influenza away.
Look at last week to see the markets infatuation with Le'affaire du cliff. POTUS and the Boehn have a weekend playdate and US markets are up almost 2% in two days. The Earl Of Orange throws a tandrum Weds and the markets tanks. Plan B delusions bouy stocks a bit Thursday only to collapse after the congressional mis-count that rocked Boehners world. Wall Street it on FC pins and needles.
Half of the Cliff pain is found in gubmint spending cuts. Forget about where those cuts come from and just soak in that this is spending. Why should a conservative give a shiznit about anything that gets our budget closer to fitting in Grover Norquist's bathtub? Well I hear on CNBC Republican congress-critters saying just the defense cuts could mean a MILLION jobs! Bloomberg is charting OMB predictions that the FC could cut 3% from the Q1 GDP... Eggads!! Fox Financial is ... well, no one watches them, so we dont care what they say. if Gubmint spending is sooooo bad, why do so many smart people think it's soooo important to the economy?
Now, truth be told, just like bloggers, traders/investers feature a lot of Cliff Divers too but they all do seem to think that a massive austerity program would bring on an economeggedon. Some people just like post-apocalyptic scenarios because they always expect it will work to their advantage. "Thin the herd" and "Expose the assholes" are frequently used phrases in these discussions if you want to do a Google search.
Me, I am the eternal optimist. I am covered in Long Spyders. Sometime between now and Friday a short term, kick the can, non-grand bargain will be announced, probably to be retroactively voted on NEXT week. <$250k tax, AMT, Doc Fix and unemployment extension will be covered, spending will be delayed a month or two. stocks will pop 3% in glee at this absense of accomplishment.
Somehow however, in the days, weeks, months or years after this near-austerity moment, I do not expect a single mea culpa. Maria Bartiromo, who has been shitting her panty hose for two weeks crying "Rise Above ... And give up your social security for MY sake!" wont come on after the bell and say "Wow, my portfolio thanks you, President Obama, for keeping true conservative economic theory at bay.".
No, I wont hear that... But I will know and that will suffice.