GOPers are frantic to cut Social Security before the truth gets out - that people under 40 are in great shape to collect Social Security.

Why? Because by 2050, Baby Boomers will be dying off rapidly.  America had very high birth rates from the end of WW2 (1946) until the birth control pill became widely available (1965), and that is "Baby Boom," the demographic goat in the python that is supposed to bankrupt Social Security. The reason this is a looming problem is that the Boomers are hitting retirement age (1946+65=2011).

To see how long the Boomers will live, we can check the Social Security age/survival curves through 2100 (see the bottom of the page)

By 2050 the youngest Boomers will be 85 years old (2050-1965=85) and, according to the survival curves, half of even the youngest boomers will be dead. The oldest boomers will be 104 years old (2050-1946=104) and the number still living will be statistically insignificant.

By 2050, most of the Baby Boom will dead.

Fifty percent of the youngest Boomers will be dead at the age of 85, and only a tiny number of the oldest Boomers will still be alive.  Year by year, a new group of Boomers will pass their 90th birthday when survival really starts to plummet. After 90, only 25% of the population is alive and the survival curve is pointed almost straight down.

So why is the GOP trying to convince voters in the 30 to 40 year old age group that Social Security won't be around for them? By the time a 30 year old hits retirement age in 2048, the nations population of elderly retirees will be dropping like flies. This great die off will be unprecedented.

Not only will the number of Social Security recipients be dropping, but we may also be having a labor shortage, so wages and employment are likely to be picking up nicely. It is likely to be an era of prosperity and full employment.

The Republicans are desperate to slash Social Security before the public figures this out, and the big lie is that "Social Security won't be there for today's young people, unless we fix it now!!!" Of course, by "fix" they mean eliminate or privatize it. The Tea Partiers prefer eliminating it because they take exception to very concept of Social Security for ideological reasons.  On the other hand we can expect the financial industry to push privatization it to plow the money back into the stock market,  because that retired cohort of Boomers won't be buying much stock will they, and the markets will need fresh infusions of cash.

There is some push back, even from CNN, pointing out that benefits may get trimmed, but there is not need to scrap the system.

The message the public needs to hear is this - If you are 40 there is no "crisis" and Social Security will be there for you.

Originally posted to bernardpliers on Fri Mar 01, 2013 at 06:34 PM PST.

Also republished by Social Security Defenders.

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