Last year, while living away from my family for a year to do ethnographic fieldwork in a remote village on a tiny Lesser Antillean island, I kept myself sane and connected to the political news in my home country by creating a new hobby. I applied my knowledge of inferential statistics and computational simulation to use fact checker reports from PolitiFact.com and The Fact Checker at the Washington Post to comparatively judge the truthfulness of the 2012 presidential and vice presidential candidates, and (more importantly) to measure our uncertainty in those judgments.

The site (and its syndication on the Daily Kos) generated some good discussion, some respectable traffic, and (I hope) showed its followers the potential for a new kind of inference-driven fact checking journalism. My main conclusions from the 2012 election analysis were:

(1) The candidates aren't as different as partisans left or right would have us believe.

(2) But the Democratic ticket was somewhat more truthful than the Republican ticket, both overall, and during the debates.

(3) It's quite likely that the 2012 Republican ticket was less truthful than the 2008 Republican ticket, and somewhat likely that the 2012 Democratic ticket was less truthful than the 2008 Democratic ticket.

Throughout, I tempered these conclusions with the recognition that my analyses did not account for the possible biases of fact checkers, including biases toward fairness, newsworthiness, and, yes, political beliefs. Meanwhile, I discussed ways to work toward measuring these biases and adjusting measures of truthfulness for them. I also suggested that fact checkers should begin in earnest to acknowledge that they aren't just checking facts, but the logical validity of politicians' arguments, as well. That is, fact checkers should also become fallacy checkers who gauge the soundness of an argument, not simply the truth of its premises.

Now, it's time to close up shop. Not because I don't plan on moving forward with what I'm proud to have done here. I'm closing up shop because I have much bigger ideas.

I've started writing up an master plan for a research institute and social media platform that will revolutionize fact checking journalism. For now, I'm calling the project Sound Check. I might have to change the name because that domain name is taken. Whatever its eventual name, Sound Check will be like FiveThirtyEight meets YouGov meets PolitiFact meets RapGenius: data-driven soundness checking journalism and research on an annotated social web. You can read more about the idea from this draft executive summary

Anyway, over the next three years (and beyond!), I hope you're going to hear a lot about this project. Already, I've started searching for funding so that I can, once I obtain my PhD in June 2014, start working full time on Sound Check.

One plan is to become an "Upstart". Upstart is a new idea from some ex-Googlers. At Upstart, individual graduates hedge their personal risk by looking for investor/mentors, who gain returns from the Upstart's future income (which is predicted from a proprietary algorithm owned by Upstart). Think of it as a capitalist, mentoring-focused sort of patronage. Unlike Kickstarter or other crowd-funding mechanisms, where patrons get feel-good vibes and rewards, Upstart investors are investing in a person like they would invest in a company.

Another plan is, of course, to go the now almost traditional crowd-funding route, but only for clearly defined milestones of the project. For example, first I'd want to get funding to organize a meet-up of potential collaborators and investors. Next I'd want to get funding for the beta-testing of the sound checking algorithm. After that I'd get funding for a beta-test of the social network aspect of Sound Check. Perhaps the these (hopefully successfully) crowd-funded projects would create interest among heavy-hitting investors.

Yet another idea is to entice some university (UW?) and some wealthy person or group of people interested in civic engagement and political fact checking to partner with Sound Check in a way similar to how FactCheck.org grew out of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at University of Pennsylvania.

Sound Check is a highly ambitious idea. It will need startup funding for servers, programmers, administrative staff, as well as training and maintaining Sound Checkers (that's fact checkers who also fallacy check). So I've got my work cut out for me. I'm open to advice and new mentors. And soon, I'll be open, along with Sound Check, to investors and donors.

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