A new Qunnipiac poll of the Democratic primary in the New York City mayoral election released Monday afternoon shows Anthony Weiner moving from frontrunner to last place among the major candidates after dropping 10 points in the wake of his sexting scandal.While Bill Thompson is unchanged in his level up support, de Blasio has surged six points in a week.
Weiner was in first place with 26 percent in the last Quinnipiac poll, which was conducted just before the scandal spent days in the headlines. The new poll Monday showed Weiner in fourth place with 16 percent compared to 27 percent for City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, 21 percent for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, and 20 percent for former Comptroller Bill Thompson.
Everyone here knows de Blasio has my full endorsement and I have been predicting his substantial on the ground organization (he's been endorsed by powerhouse union SEIU 1199) will vault him into the runoff with Quinn. This poll bears that out. If de Blasio can get to the runoff, this election will be a damn good one between the centrist Quinn and the progressive de Blasio. It is also good timing for de Blasio to begin to make his name as NYC voters will begin tuning in just after Labor Day. I suspect de Blasio will make a big splash at Harlem Week and the West Indian Day Parade to begin to eat into support in black precincts that had been trending Weiner.
Of course, one cannot count out perennial milquetoast Bill Thompson. Thompson also has substantial Democratic support and came surprisingly close to beating Mike Bloomberg's money despite being basically broke in 2009. If Thompson clears it into the runoff, I suspect the race to get ugly, quickly.