The latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll finds that Republican Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott only has a six point lead on Democratic Texas State Senator Wendy Davis in a head-to-head, and Abbott only leads by 5 when the Libertarian candidate is included.
The poll(warning: contains PDF) was conducted from October 18 to October 27, 2013 with 1200 Registered Voters. The Margin of Error was +/-2.83% (3.3% adjusted for weighting) with 53/47 Female to Male. The racial breakdown was 60% White, 23% Latino, 13% African-American, 2% Asian, 2% Multi-Racial. Location breakdown is 29% Dallas/Fort Worth area, 23% Houston area, 11% Austin area, 10% San Antonio area and 27% Other parts of Texas. The Suburban/Urban/Rural breakdown was 51/29/20. Age breakdown was 16% 18-29, 28% 30-44, 38% 45-64 and 18% 65 and up. Responders thought themselves Republican 46%, Democrat 44% and Independent 10%. A plurality of voters(34%) said that they were in the middle. 19% were Somewhat Conservative while 18% lean Conservative while 10% lean Liberal.
The head to head numbers are Greg Abbott 40, Wendy Davis 34 with 25% Don't Know. The 3-way is Abbott 40, Davis 35, Libertarian Kathie Glass 5 with 20% Don't Know. Both Abbott and Davis have positive favorables. Abbott's are 36/24 with 23% neither favorable nor unfavorable and 18% Don't Know. Davis's are 37/31 with 16% neither favorable nor unfavorable and 16%. Davis has picked up a lot of name recognition since June 2013 when 58% didn't know her or had any opinion on her.
I would have liked to have seen crosstabs that compare Abbott and Davis among women. According to the Texas Tribune though:
In the head-to-head race between the two, Davis is predictably ahead with Democrats, 67 percent to 8 percent, and Abbott is predictably ahead with Republicans, 74 percent to 6 percent. Independent registered voters were split 32 percent to 31 percent in favor of Abbott.I think Wendy Davis is a rising star nationally for the Democratic Party, and I will be following the Texas Gubernatorial race with interest.