a series of recent tweets from Dave Wasserman of Cook political report just out"
IF that is correct, Herring (D) would net 116 votes, putting him in the lead by an estimated 72 votes even before Fairfax proviz #VAAG— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 10, 2013
1. Current SBOE shows Herring -55, or if you prefer, Obenshain +55
2. That does NOT include Richmond City provisionals, which netted 11 for Herring, lowering margin to 44.
3. The correction from this precinct in Richmond, if it holds, nets Herring 116 votes.
4. 116 - 44 = 72, which would be the margin for Herring, BEFORE Fairfax County Provisionals, which would break his way.
NOTE - I will not be updating diary further. Putting further Wasserman tweets in comments on thread.
UPDATE 06:12 AM Wasserman maintains a spreadsheet to track all the changes, to show when they are different than what the SBOE shows. State website still shows Obenshain with a 55 vote margin, and does not include the provisionals from Richmond. Ben Tribbett (@NotLArrySabato) has gone through all the changes and agrees with Wasserman that the base number should have included those Richmond changes, which would have put number at 44. Then there is the precinct with missing machine, with 116 advantage to Herring, and two additional Richmond corrections for another ten votes. That means the total margin for the state needed to be adjusted by 137 votes in favor of Mark Herring, who by this calculation now has an 82 vote margin, with no provisionals from Fairfax County, which will not be tabulated until Tuesday afternoon.