3:51 PM PT: While we wait for polls to close, check out this awesome precinct map from Matthew Isbell. Obama won the district 50-49, so this map gives a good idea of the kind of benchmarks Sink needs to hit for a narrow win.
3:58 PM PT (David Nir): There's a very good chance that this will be a short liveblog. January's primary was called in little over 30 minutes, and the results of St. Petersburg's race for mayor last November were clear after just 20 minutes. Of course, there's also a very good chance this will be an exceptionally tight election that will keep us up to the wee hours... and beyond.
4:07 PM PT (David Nir): Our first big dump of votes just hit, some 130,000. Alex Sink (D) has a 48.5 to 46.2 lead over David Jolly (R).
4:08 PM PT (David Nir): Note that those are all the early votes and most of the absentees. Also, Libertarian Lucas Overby is at 5 percent—higher than where I might have expected (which would be bad news for Jolly if that holds into the Election Day vote).
4:10 PM PT (David Nir): A good observation:
4:12 PM PT (David Nir): The first Election Day ballots have been tabulated (28 precincts, out of 225 total), and Sink remains up by 2%.
4:14 PM PT (David Nir): We're already up to 105 precincts. Sink's lead is now 47.6 to 47.3.
4:16 PM PT (David Nir): With 119/225 reporting, Jolly's taken his first lead, of 0.1%.
4:17 PM PT (David Nir): 151/225 and Jolly's lead keeps growing. He's now at 47.79 to 47.15 for Sink.
4:19 PM PT (David Nir): With 75% of precincts reporting, Jolly's lead is now almost a full point, 48-47.
4:21 PM PT (David Nir): Every update just keeps getting worse for Sink. Jolly's lead is now around 1.2% with 187 precincts in. At least Pinellas counts `em quick.
4:22 PM PT (David Nir): 48.2 Jolly to 46.8 Sink, with 87% of precincts in. Pretty much over, sad to say.
4:27 PM PT (David Nir): The AP hasn't formally called this one yet, but with almost all precincts counted, Jolly has an insurmountable 48.4 to 46.6 lead on Sink.
4:44 PM PT (David Nir): All precincts are counted, and Jolly wins, 48.4 to 46.6 for Sink. Thanks for joining us tonight.