WHY WE MAY WELL BE ONLY “TWO STEPS FROM ANOTHER CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS” & “THREE STEPS FROM A LIMITED WAR WITH RUSSIA”. CAN ANYONE STOP “THE GUNS OF MARCH” (16 MARCH, 2014)?
VERY EARLY THIS MORNING (9 March)—ABOUT 1:30 am I met my quota @2075 words & quit for the night—because of daylight savings time it was after 2. My last words were—“AND ALMOST CAUSED A WAR” [The dangerous events in the Crimea/Ukraine of 1-8 March, 2014.]
I took my three JRT’s for a short walk in the cool morning as a nearly half moon was rising in a perfectly clear night sky—went home expecting to fall asleep immediately. But first I checked my email and found, from my good friend Dr. Mort Levy, a forwarded article - “Genghis Christ, General Boykin, and the Fundamentalist Christian Holy War” [Sam Huntington’s “CLASH OF CIVILIZATIONS”?], by Mikey Weinstein founder of the Military Religious Freedom Foundation & reprinted by TRUTHOUT [MARK KARLIN], 08 March 2014. Mort said it sounded like I had written the truth about General Boykin & his CHRISTIAN DOMINIONISTS. Boykin was given a very important Intel position in the Pentagon by SECDEF Rumsfeld where he worked during the Bush Administration helping Rumsfeld/Bush & Cheney make their TORTURE/WATER BOARDING PROGRAM MORE EFFICIENT. Boykin is now a retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General and current Executive Vice President of the ultra-right wing Fundamentalist Research Council (FRC).
I woke up at 8:15 am & turned on MSNBC & then SWITCHED to NBC’s “Meet The Press”—strangely devoid of ANY MAJOR POLITICAL FIGURES & featuring a mild Ralph Reed emphasizing a revived TWO WINGED GOP for achieving the Presidency in 2016; C. Freeland just back from Kiev & author of a long OP-ED in the New York Times WEEK IN REVIEW; & I think I heard from Stephen Cohen on the IMPENDING GREAT CRISIS IN THE UKRAINE/CRIMEA.
My epiphany occurred when Cohen slowly, and matter of fact predicted that we AMERICA/RUSSIA/THE WORLD were very near but two steps from another CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS [OCT. 1962] or three steps from a war with Russia! Yes, that was my epiphany—of a similar strength as when Jerry Spingarn in June 1962 showed me that top secret page of all of president Kennedy’s NATIONAL SECURITY TEAMS APPROVAL OF SECDEF McNAMARA’S ANN ARBOR SPEECH OF 16 JUNE 1962—that sought to codify for the US/JFK Administration the RAND/US AIR FORCE AGGRESSIVE NEW FIRST STRIKE NUCLEAR STRATEGY CALLED COUNTERFORCE/NO CITIES . I told Jerry the ANN ARBOR SPEECH MEANT WAR WITH RUSSIA & PROBABLY A NUCLEAR WAR AT THAT.
FURTHERMORE, Cohen’s prediction this morning astounded me/frightened me: that we were but “two steps” from a new “CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS  & three steps from a war [PROBABLY LIMITED—because of the USA’s/Russia’s DOOMSDAY MACHINES] with Russia.My epiphany occurred when Cohen slowly, and matter of fact predicted that we AMERICA/RUSSIA/THE WORLD were very near but two steps from another CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS [OCT. 1962] or three steps from a war with Russia! Yes, that was my epiphany—of a similar strength as when Jerry Spingarn in June 1962 showed me that top secret page of all of president Kennedy’s NATIONAL SECURITY TEAMS APPROVAL OF SECDEF McNAMARA’S ANN ARBOR SPEECH OF 16 JUNE 1962—that sought to codify for the US/JFK Administration the RAND/US AIR FORCE AGGRESSIVE NEW FIRST STRIKE NUCLEAR STRATEGY CALLED COUNTERFORCE/NO CITIES . I told Jerry the ANN ARBOR SPEECH MEANT WAR WITH RUSSIA & PROBABLY A NUCLEAR WAR AT THAT.
Yes, the IDES OF MARCH ARE HERE, AS IS THE CRIMEAN VOTE TO JOIN RUSSIA, LEAVE UKRAINE. And I am playing the Greek CASSANDRA AGAIN —AS I DID IN LATE JUNE 1962. That was before we, my wife Charlotte, daughter Melissa and I, sailed to Paris on the USS UNITED STATES—very worried about P. Khrushchev’s reaction to McNamara’s new Marquis of Queensbury Rules for a limited/controlled nuclear WWIII. It would be a nuclear war that we would win—whatever that really means in the NUCLEAR AGE– because of our 10 to 1 superiority in strategic nuclear weapons— JET BOMBERS/ICBMS & INVULNERABLE POLARIS SUB-LAUNCHED SLBMS.
Recall the story/myth-- because Cassandra refused the sexual advances of Apollo he “brought it to pass that no one believed her predictions, although they were invariably correct.’’ [W. Benet, THE READER’S ENCYCLOPEDIA , p.185] –as mine have also been. As CHURCHILL OBSERVED –HIS PREDICTIONS HAVEN’T always been wrong! Despite what Pat Buchannan writes & believes, Churchill figured Hitler as the ANTICHRIST he was.
NOW, AS GOVERNOR AL SMITH USED TO SAY: LET’S LOOK AT THE RECORD OF UKRAINE ‘S Guarantees for giving up her nukes in 1991; the EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NATO/EU; & “WESTERNIZATION” toward the sacred BORDERS OF MOTHER RUSSIA—once protected from the WEST BY ITS VAST STEPPES/BUFFER STATES/THE USSR EMPIRE’S NUCLEAR/CONVENTIONAL WEAPONS POWER [since 1917-1991]; ”BALANCE OF POWER” DOCTRINE OF HANS MORGENTHAU—U. OF CHICAGO FRIEND/ADVISER & WORLD AUTHORITY ON THE “DOCTRINE OF THE BALANCE OF POWER”—SINCE THE TREATY OF WESTPHALIA 1648— THE END OF RELIGIOUS WARS WITHIN WESTERN CHRISTENDOM.
The best insights I have found into the roots of our [THE WEST’S] current crisis with Putin’s Russia are from a short article, “What’s behind Russia’s moves? Fear of NATO” that appeared in the Palm Beach Post, Friday 7 March 2014—part of which I included in PART THREE OF THIS SCREED, and repeated here again because it explains why Stephen Cohen is so worried about the next two weeks & why I’m convinced that Cohen is probably all too correct. Furthermore I base my worries on President George H. W. Bush’s & General Brent Scowcroft’s seminal primary source book, A World Transformed—including a key selection on “THE COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET EMPIRE.” It is literally littered with observations & warnings about the absolute necessity of treating the post 1991 relationship of the Ukraine/Crimea/Sevastopol to Russia with kid gloves—especially NATO’s future role in the new CENTRAL EUROPE after the disintegration of the Soviet Russian Empire [USSR] & its status as one of two of the Globe’s SUPERPOWERS from 1945-1991.
For example, note BUSH/Scowcroft’s cautious approach to the NATO-UKRAINE ENIGMA/ GORDIAN KNOT [NO LONGER POSSIBLE]MUTUAL INVULNERABILITY of RUSSIA’s/US’s GREAT NUCLEAR DETERRENTS since 1965 & PARITY since the late 1970s+ THE CURRENT OPERATIONAL RUSSIAN DOOMSDAY MACHINE—THE “ULTIMATE DETERRENT” since RWR’S “EVIL EMPIRE RHETORIC” (1981-83) & TWO BILLION DOLLAR “DEFENSIVE” BUILD UP/ARMS RACE WITH OURSELVES + THE CARTER/BRZEZINSKI-RWR “DE-CAP” STRATEGY AIMED AT 5,000 COMMUNIST PARTY CADRES [1980-1991(and beyond?)]-- FORCED P.M ANDROPOV TO ACCELERATE THE OPERATIONAL STATUS OF PERIMETER“DEAD HAND” TO 1 JAN. 1985—WHERE IT IS STILL CONTINUALLY UPDATED TO ENSURE ITS CURRENT OPERATIONAL STATUS AS A DETERRENT OF ANY OTHER NATION.
AND WHAT PRAY TELL IS A GORDIAN KNOT? TO GET OUT OF A DIFFICULT OR AWKWARD POSITION BY ONE DECISIVE STEP, TO SOLVE A PROBLEM [LIKE THE UKRAINE OR AN AGGRESSIVE “CHIP ON THE SHOULDER” “MESSIANIC” RUSSIAN ORTHODOX CHRISTIANITY, supported by MODERN RUSSIA/PUTIN’S VAST GAS & OIL FIELDS & STRATEGIC PIPELINES TO WESTERN EUROPE—ESPECIALLY BOOMING GERMANY UNDER A. MERKEL, ORIGINALLY FROM EAST GERMANY WHO SPEAKS PUTIN’S LANGUAGE & VICE VERSA. [Thanks, nephew Hans von Borcke, for the tip.]
General LeMay’s strategy was based on using the nuclear sword of SAC to carry out an updated American Strategy of ALEXANDER THE GREAT—the only general in nearly 2500 years of recorded history to conquer AFGHANISTAN [circa 350 B.C.E.].
“Alexander was told that ‘whoever undid the knot [of King Gordius] would reign over the whole East. ‘Well then’, said the conqueror, ‘it is thus I perform the task,’ and so saying, he cut the knot in twain with his sword.’’ THE BOMBER GENERALS OF SAC, under the unforgiving, but fearless leadership of General Curt Le May from 1948-1965 [his retirement] planned to use SAC’S NUCLEAR SWORD IN A SPLENDID, PRE-EMPTIVE FIRST STRIKE & THUS VICTORY OVER GODLESS COMMUNISM—IN ANY & ALL ITS FORMS. SAC’S NUCLEAR PREPONDERANCE was the MAGNIFICENT MILITARY INSTRUMENT THAT LE MAY had forged to bring GLOBAL CONTROL & TOTAL AMERICAN VICTORY THROUGH THE MASSIVE AIR-ATOMIC POWER SUPERIORITY OF SAC TO THE USA; the triumph of DEMOCRACY, CHRISTIANITY & CAPITALISM UBER ALLES from 1949-1992—when SAC was dissolved by General Butler. (FEW GOP ELECTED POLITICIANS—except President George H. W. Bush/James Baker & George Shultz/RWR—in his more lucid moments (1984-1988)—realized & acted on this GREAT NUCLEAR TRUTH.)
Consider the recent comments 4-11 March of GOP critics on Obama’s cautious polices—in contrast to Cheney’s recommended NATO military actions in CENTRAL EUROPE by our NATO ALLIES.
However, the most irresponsible, crazy, & civilization destroying suggestion of half-governor Sarah Palin’s loony option –WHICH SHE REALLY LIKES—“UNLIKE GREEN EGGS & HAM”—A PRE-EMPTIVE FIRST NUCLEAR STRIKE against PUTIN’S RUSSIA. ASAFP!!
– Has Palin ever been briefed on the fantastic power of H-bombs?
– How deep is Palin’s understanding of NUCLEAR DETERRENTS & THE DOCTRINE OF DETERRENCE?
– WHAT does Palin know about INVULNERABLE DETERRENTS & their basing mode? [Russian Nuclear Subs & their SLBMS are primarily based at Sevastopol, Crimea—one of Russia’s best of two ice free ports on the Black Sea and the other in the Sea of Oshkosh/Kamchatka Peninsula—base of PETROPAVLOVSK—featured in the KAL--007 Incident of September 1, 1983—which along with American Pershing II MRBM’s based in Germany nearly caused a nuclear war between the SOVIETS & Americans in late 1983].
– Has Palin been briefed on the American SIOP & its DE-CAPITATION TARGETING OF RUSSIAN LEADERSHIP— with 5,000 nuclear warheads from the SIOP?
– Does Palin realize that the Soviet/Russian DOOMSDAY MACHINE, called “PERIMETER””DEAD HAND,” has been operational deep in the URAL Mountains OF RUSSIA since 1 January 1985 & has been updated ever since—“THE ULTIMATE DETERRENT”?
– Is Palin aware that the fictional story line of Stanley Kubrick’s classic movie of 1964, DR. STRANGELOVE: OR HOW I LEARNED TO LOVE THE H-BOMB, IS NOW A FACT OF LIFE OR DEATH FOR RUSSIA & THE USA & the rest of the world community as well?
– Why does the GOP establishment allow such irresponsible & dangerous Russian “BEAR BAITING “ by the Tea Party Queen?
AT ONE TIME, LE MAY’s “SPLENDID PREVENTIVE AND PRE-EMPTIVE FIRST STRIKE’’(Herman Kahn) WERE DESIGNED TO FUNCTION AS SAC’S NUCLEAR SWORD, LE MAY’S PERSONAL EQUIVALENT TO Alexander the Great’s sword & ALL THOSE NUCLEAR OPTIONS of SAC’S TARGETS ON THE PRESIDENT’S NIGHT-TABLE WHICH WERE CONTAINED IN THE SIOP, CODES STORED IN THE “ARMAGEDDON FOOTBALL’’—WHICH STILL CONSTANTLY FOLLOWS THE PRESIDENT. DOES ITS MILITARY OFFICER GUARDIAN CAST A SHADOW? I CERTAINLY HOPE SO. [SEE THE MOVIE “Deterrence” (1999) ON HOW THE PRESIDENT USES THE ARMAGEDDON FOOTBALL IN A CRISIS LIKE THE ONE THAT’S COMING JUST AROUND THE CORNER OF THE IDES OF MARCH, 2014, LIKE THE CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS (15-28 OCTOBER 1962)— HAPPILY RESOLVED BY A TRUE RUSSO-AMERICAN COMPROMISE OF 28 Oct. 1962 THAT TIME!
WILL THERE BE A COMPROMISE THIS TIME? WILL KERRY & LAVROV FIND AN “OFF RAMP” THRU DIPLOMACY IN MID- MARCH OF 2014? OR WILL WE FACE THE H-Bomb “FIRE BALLS” RACING THROUGH THE VILLAGES & TOWNS OF US/Europe & Russia? RECALL Premier Khrushchev’s nuclear fire ball fears were expressed in his first letter to JFK on 26 Oct. 1962. That was the day before “BLACK SATURDAY” when MAJOR ANDERSON’S U-2 was shot down over Cuba & Captain Maultsby’s "lost U-2’’ over Eastern Siberia was nearly tricked by someone [US AIR FORCE/CIA ROGUE OFFICER] who knew Maultsby’s correct/active “code words” & ordered him to fly “WEST” deeper into Russian Siberia & sure death by Soviet MIGS.
Fortunately, for the peace of the world, Captain Maultsby disregarded his “AMERICAN “ orders & flew “EAST” instead, keeping the Russian Balalaika music behind & he safely landed at a crude Alaskan air strip. The Great Deterrent to WW III continued to hold for another day. On Sunday 28 Oct. 1962 JFK & “K” reached a GREAT [SECRET] COMPROMISE: JFK WOULD REMOVE OBSOLETE LIQUID-FUELED MRBMs [JUPITERS] IN TURKEY & “K” WOULD SEND HIS MRBMs [S-12s] back to the Black Sea ports they had left in August/SEPT.
Thus, the US invasion of Cuba, the Soviet nuclear response, & WW III did not begin as planned on 29/30 OCT. 1962. The Soviets did not NUKE our invasion fleet & General LeMay did not launch his splendid PRE-EMPTIVE first nuclear strike against the very weak Soviet Great Nuclear Deterrent—only FIVE VERY LARGE LIQUID-FUELED SOVIET ICBMs—sitting on top of their bases—sitting nuclear ducks for LeMay’s MMM/JUPITERS/TITIANS + B-52s—and the thermonuclear WW III did not begin!
And yes, dear friends of the GREEN VITAL CENTER IT CAN HAPPEN AGAIN—IF OBAMA USES HIS SIOP’S THERMONUCLEAR WEAPONS & RUSSIA RESPONDS WITH ITS OWN SUB-BASED NUKES [AT SEVASTOPOL IN THE Crimea or from PETROPAVLOVSK in the KAMCHATKA PENINSULA]. WHO WILL BE OUR CASSANDRA? PALIN? CHENEY? OBAMA? CLINTON? ME?
WHAT WILL BE THE NATURE OF THE HOPED FOR “NEW UKRAINE COMPROMISE” IN MID- MARCH 2014 that will provide PUTIN & OBAMA & NATO AN OFF-RAMP & THUS DETER the impending “LIMITED MARCH/APRIL WAR" IN THE UKRAINE [2014-????]? THE MODELS PERHAPS BEING THE SPANISH CIVIL WAR OF 1936-39/THE KOREAN WAR of 1950-53 or the SECOND VIETNAMESE WAR 1965-1975.
What then are the roots of our current potential “CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS” in CRIMEA/EASTERN UKRAINE?
Professor Edward Walker, Director of the UC Berkeley’s Program in Eurasian & East European Studies, begins his remarkable article thusly:
o—“The causes of the unfolding crisis in the Ukraine are many, but most fundamentally its roots can be found in an enormously consequential decision made by the United States and its allies in the early 1990s” [Bush ’41(?)/Clinton].
o—“Faced with a strategic challenge of constructing a security architecture for post-Cold War Europe, a decision was made to gradually expand NATO to the east.” [George Kennan said at the time that this was one of AMERICA’s biggest mistakes—but CLINTON & BUSH ‘43 CONTINUED TO EXPAND NATO TO THE VERY EDGE OF RUSSIA—almost including the UKRAINE & GEORGIA INTO NATO in 2008. Then in AUGUST 2008, during the McCAIN-OBAMA campaign, Randy Scheunemann [EX-DIRECTOR OF THE NEW AMERICAN CENTURY PROGRAM—1990s—McCain’s FOREIGN POLICY GURU & PALINs too [Singapore speech] & PAID LOBBYIST TO GEORGIA’S PRESIDENT—THE AMERICAN EDUCATED Saakashvili was conned into attacking the Russian protected enclave of Ossetia by U.S. Special Forces and trained GEORGIAN troops. The Russians intervened to save their Russian speaking brothers/sisters & drove the aggressive Georgians back toward Tbilisi—then the Russians stopped their invasion, absorbed OSSETIA & GEORGE BUSH DIDN’T DO A THING.
IN FACT, SUPER HAWK, “BENIGN EMPIRE MONGER” CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER defended BUSH’S INACTION by saying the entire event was no big deal & other neo cons agreed with KRAUTHAMMER/KRISTOL/WILL(?)]. The surprise early September selection of Sarah Palin as VEEP & the Soviet reaction to Georgia’s attack on Ossetia did not cause an INTERNATIONAL CRISIS TO DISCREDIT OBAMA as the neo-cons [Bill Kristol/Lowery] had planned for—a clever “DIRTY-TRICK” crisis—as conceived by Randy S. & his neo-con allies. However, the fall of the House of Lehman on Sept. 15th made the “OSSETIA conspirators” plans mute & OBAMA became our 45th President.
BUT, THE PRECEDENT REMAINS—PUTIN WILL NOT STAND ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF NATO. HE WILL IN FACT GO TO WAR TO PREVENT IT. HENCE THE VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION THAT’S ABOUT TO UNFOLD IN CRIMEA IF THE 15 MARCH voters decide to join Russia again. ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOSE AS THE RUSSIAN SEND 150,000 troops into EASTERN UKRAINE TO PROTECT “THE RUSSIANS” & THE LIMITED CIVIL WAR BEGINS—NEVER ASK TO KNOW THE REAL REASON WHY—JUST DO & DIE WILL BE THE ORDER OF THE DAY—as in 1914/1939/1941/1950/1965/1979/2001/2003 etc., AD NAUSEAM. . . only 160,00,000 killed in the 20th century? How many billions will die in the 21st century Quien Sabe? --Beginning in March 2014 yet?
And that next likely step is STUPIDITY ON SOMEONE’S PART— LIKE THE ALBANIANS IN “ON THE BEACH”/UKRAINE/NATO/AGENT PROVOCATEURS/PLANNED INCIDENTS LIKE THE GULF OF TONKIN—2-4 AUGUST 1964/PUCK POLAND/MARCO POLO GATE[1931?/33?] IN CHINA & JAPANESE INTERVENE—thru 15 August 1945 & THE WAR NOBODY WANTS & NOBODY CAN WIN—FOUGHT UNDER THE GREAT NUCLEAR DETERRENT & IN THE SHADOW OF THE DOOMSDAY MACHINES—BEGINS IN SPRING 2014.
NOW BACK TO PROFESSOR WALKER’S USEFUL explanation of the complex ROOTS OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS OF MARCH 2014 ON NATO’S EASTWARD EXPANSION NEAR THE POINT OF NO RETURN—UKRAINE/GEORGIA [ANYONE FOR A RUSSIAN CANADA OR A RUSSIAN MEXICO ON OUR NORTHERN/SOUTHERN BORDERS????]
o—“A first round of accession took place in 1999, with membership for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland.”
o—“That was followed in 2004 by membership for Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia, and in 2009 by Albania & Croatia.”
o—Both UKRAINE & GEORGIA WERE PUT ON THE WAITING LIST FOR FUTURE FULL MEMBERSHIP & THE ULTIMATE PROTECTION OF NATO’S TITLE 5—“AN ATTACK ON ANY NATO NATION IS AN ATTACK ON ALL NATO NATIONS.”
o—AND THAT DEAR FRIENDS IS WHERE PUTIN HAS DRAWN HIS OWN “RED LINE”. THERE WILL BE NO MORE EASTWARD EXPANSION OF NATO ON PUTIN’S WATCH—NATO HAS MOVED AS FAR EAST AS IT EVER WILL GO! AND THE WEST HAD BETTER GET OVER IT AND THE US NEO-CONS/THEO CONS—GREATER AMERIKANITES AS WELL. PUTIN HAS THE CONVENTIONAL MILITARY FORCES, AN INVULNERABLE NUCLEAR DETERRENT/TACTICAL NUKES +++ THE “ULTIMATE DETERRENT” THE DOOMSDAY MACHINE [PERIMETER/DEAD HAND] STILL TICKING AWAY SINCE 1 JAN. 1985 IN ITS GRANITE “COMMAND GLOBES’’ DEEP IN THE URAL MOUNTAINS. HENCE NO WESTERN SPLENDID FIRST NUCLEAR STRIKE IS FEARED BY PUTIN. COMPROMISES ARE NECESSARY OR “LIMITED WARS’’/INSURGENCIES WILL BE SOUGHT/FOUND/FOUGHT IN CENTRAL EUROPE.. . .
“Officially, NATO’s position is that any country that wishes to join the alliance and meets the accession criteria will be welcomed. In practice, however, there never was any serious prospect that Russia would be allowed in.
o—Indeed, for many of NATO’s new members, the primary incentive to join was to deter aggression by, and deflect pressure from , Moscow.’’
o–“Accordingly, Russians concluded that NATO expansion was directed first and foremost at containing Russia militarily and politically. [THAT HAS BEEN THE MAIN REASON SINCE TRUMAN HELPED CREATE NATO IN 1949 & NAMED GENERAL IKE TO LEAD NATO AS THE FIRST “SHAPE.” A VERY, VERY SUCCESSFUL INITIAL ALLIANCE AS JUDGED BY HISTORY 1949-1992 with the victorious end of the Soviet Empire/World Communism & creation of Russia on Christmas Day 1991. [See Bush & Scowcroft’s A World Transformed, 1998].
O –FURTHERMORE, WALKER WRITES : “Today, the Russian political elite is virtually unanimous in viewing NATO expansion as an acute threat to Russian NATIONAL SECURITY.” [JUST AS RUSSIA ON OUR CANADIAN & MEXICAN BORDER WOULD BE—AS I REPEAT MYSELF ON HOW SERIOUS THE SITUATION IS AT THIS EXACT MOMENT!!!—9 March, @10;30 pm, 2014—after watching COSMOS ON FOX—YET!
o—“It likewise views eastern enlargement of the EUROPEAN UNION as a first step toward full incorporation into Western institutions, including NATO—hence, Moscow’s intense opposition to Ukraine signing an EU association agreement in November.”
o—‘’The fundamental problem with the project was that at some point it would inevitably run up against the countervailing power of Russia.”
o—“We reached that point initially in 2008, when NATO officials indicated at a summit in April that Ukraine and Georgia would soon be offered membership, a decision that helped precipitate the brief war between Russia and Georgia that August.”
o—WE have reached it again, with far more at stake, today in Ukraine.
o—“For now, the immediate task is to try to defuse the crisis through diplomacy. Although it is appropriate to warn Moscow the dire political and economic consequences of further military intervention, as President Barack Obama did last Friday.”
o—“It is also incumbent on Western governments to warn the new leadership in Kiev that it would be reckless to provoke Russia further or to ignore Russian interests.”
o—“The stark fact is that even if Russian military intervention stops with the establishment of a pro-Russian vassal state in Crimea, Russia will have enormous leverage over the new government in Ukraine .”
o—“It can cut back on crucial gas deliveries, raise the price of gas and other commodities, impose painful tariffs & trade barriers, and above all , it can stir up endless trouble for Kiev, not just in the Crimea, but also in other Russian speaking regions.”
SO WHAT IS TO DONE? Professor Walker has some interesting suggestions for President Obama to consider:
1. “In the longer term, the crisis suggests that it is time to reconsider NATO expansion and to explore alternative institutional arrangements for European security.”
2. “Ukraine for example, would be better served by a NATO-RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN treaty that provided for military neutrality and some kind of common customs regime for trade with the EU and Russia, (or a Russian –led customs union).”
3. “More ambitiously an effort could be made to reinvigorate the security architecture built in the 1970s to reduce East-WEST tensions during the Cold War, notably the organization for security and cooperation in Europe, which includes all NATO members, all former Warsaw Pact countries and all 15 Soviet successor states.”
4. “A renewed commitment to conventional force limitation, confidence building measures and military transparency—using OSCE as the institutional focus—along with some kind of institutionalized neutrality for Ukraine might produce an international environment that helps rather than undermines Ukrainian political and economic stabilization.’’
5. “IT MIGHT EVEN CONTRIBUTE TO GRADUAL LIBERALIZATION IN RUSSIA AS WELL.” [PBP, March 7, 2014]
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT DURING THE NEXT FORTNIGHT [BEFORE/RIGHT AFTER THE 16th March vote in Crimea?] & HOW SPECIFICALLY CAN WE HEAD OFF/PREVENT/RESOLVE ANOTHER CUBAN MISSILE -LIKE CONFLICT WITH RUSSIA?
1. HOW ABOUT A SECRET PUTIN –OBAMA SUMMIT [VIRTUAL] WITH POPE FRANCIS? WHY? THE POOR WILL INEVITABLE SUFFER MOST IF THERE IS A LIMITED WAR OVER UKRAINE & so will God’s Creation.
2. SINCE REVELATION’s PREDICTIONS [16:16, 19] of all the world’s cities destroyed "by fires’’ & HALF OF MANKIND WILL BE KILLED this time, BRING/GATHER TOGETHER [by INTERNET] THE POPE & DALAI LAMA & ORTHODOX LEADERS [OTHER RELIGIOUS FOLK] WHO HAVE A DIRECT STAKE IN DETERRING ANY KIND OF WAR & RELATED SUFFERING TO THE LITTLE CHILDREN & the lower classes TO LOBBY AGAINST THE COMING WAR OVER THE UKRAINE’S FUTURE--& PERHAPS MANKIND’S AS WELL.
3. Use FACEBOOK & RELATED GLOBAL SOCIAL MEDIA TO PRESSURE NATO/Ukraine TO HOLD THE LARGEST Global PEOPLES March IN ALL History, DEMANDING “UKRAINE PEACE & COMPROMISE NOW” AT EASTER-2014.
4. CREATE A GLOBAL TELETHON DEDICATED TO FINDING NEW WAYS/PATHS FOR "UKRAINIAN PEACE & COMPROMISE’’—WITH THE FUNDS RAISED FOR SYRIAN HOMELESS & GLOBAL MASS MARCHES FOR UKRAINIAN PEACE/COMPROMISE NOW—BEFORE IT’S TOO LATE.
ON MARCH 10—THE CRISIS RIPENED AS PUTIN’s ANNEXING OF THE CRIMEA CONTINUED—ADDING THOUSANDS OF TROOPS ON THE GROUND AS THE ISSUE BECOMES MOOT—A FAIT ACCOMPLI WHICH ONLY BEGAN ON 4 MARCH—6 DAYS AGO UNTIL ??????
Former Governor Huntsman [R. Utah] continues to make the most sense ON OBAMA’S RESPONSE of any REPUBLICAN---or DEMOCRATIC Politician for that matter:
1. The U.S. needs a NEW GRAND STRATEGY for itself, our allies & our enemies to replace/supersede the two great components from the late 1940s [HST’S GREAT CONTRIBUTION—NUCLEAR DETERRENCE & THE WEAPONS SYSTEMS TO CARRY IT OUT PLUS AN ACTIVE CONTAINMENT POLICY [George Kennan] OF THE USSR & ALL THAT IT STOOD FOR.] Naturally, this new GRAND STRATEGY—2014—2033, ought to be built on the FRAME WORK/SHOULDERS OF THE SUCCESSFUL POLICIES/PROGRAMS of 1946-2014—NUCLEAR DETERRENCE & INTELLIGENT/RESTRAINED CONTAINMENT.
2. Huntsman again on T.V. stressed that the US must pay attention to building a European Coalition by imaginative Diplomacy. [That is exactly the point JIM BAKER makes when he reminds us that the essence OF DIPLOMACY is COMPROMISE—neither side gets all he wants, but each side can leave the DIPLOMATIC TABLE with something—not all. No one is humiliated. Once again Baker reminds us how wise he is/was—when his diplomacy eliminated the nuclear weapons of the 16 successor states of the old Soviet Empire—leaving just ONE—RUSSIA!! Surely such a feat deserves a Noble Peace Prize for Jim Baker & his Boss President George H.W. Bush.] Huntsman also stressed that the President coordinate a UNITED ECONOMIC PACKAGE FOR UKRAINE—to under-cut the Russian offers of $15 billion including the nearly $2 billion the Ukraine owes Putin for the cheap gas that Russia has been supplying/subsidizing her own people with. Furthermore, Huntsman suggests that the US carefully shape any sanctions as they may indeed ‘’boomerang” & to remember that A. Merkel speaks Russian, is from East Germany & knows Putin better than any other of our allies. And furthermore, Germany is our most important NATO ally & the economic key to increasing European prosperity. Please no new “European WEASELS” talk OR THE BANNING OF SAUER KRAUT. All is very sane & sensible advice to president Obama.
3. What a contrast is the wild/crazy/stupid /bellicose advice from Dick Cheney–the worst VEEP in American history. His growls are for the other military options on the President’s table rather than the introduction of American Ground troops into the Ukraine. For example why not more military aid to the Ukraine or joint NATO military exercise with Poland or in the Baltic nations? On 12 March , The Pentagon said the U.S. is sending 12 F-16 fighter jets to Poland to augment the Air Force detachment there. Last week, the U.S. sent six F-15 fighter jets to Lithuania to bolster air patrols over the Baltics, adding to the four planes already there.’’ [News services, PBP, 13 March 2014.]
4. However, it was left to Sarah Palin the uncrowned queen of the Tea Party to tell the delirious Sunday CPAC GANG, after dramatically misreading the message of Dr Seuss’s GREEN EGGS & HAM once again, following Senator Cruz’s example, to recommend NUCLEAR RETALIATION against that “thug” Putin. And then, in one of the most irresponsible pieces of advice I have ever heard—any time, Palin reminded a cheering CPAC that the “ONLY WAY TO STOP A BAD GUY WITH A NUKE, IS A GOOD GUY WITH A NUKE!” AND THE HALF-MAD GOVERNOR IMPLIED THAT A FIRST PRE-EMPTIVE NUCLEAR ATTACK SHOULD BE LAUNCHED AGAINST PUTIN IF HE SEIZES THE CRIMEA/EASTERN UKRAINE! [AFTER THE 16th OF MARCH]
As a memory refresher on Palin’s past nuclear wisdom recall George Will’s estimate of her actions & her faulty recollections on THE GEORGIAN INCIDENT OF AUGUST/SEPTEMBER 2008 when Bush & Cheney didn’t do one damned thing after the “Five Day War” between the aggressive, first-strike Georgian forces of President “S” with the covert advice of the GOP neo-cons—Randy Scheunemann & Bill Kristol—to send the NATO trained & equipped Georgian troops and the Russian protected enclave of OSSETIA. The Russian troops of Putin responded & routed the Georgian forces as the Georgians cried for NATO protection.
Here is how I described THE OSSETIA INCIDENT, TRIGGERED BY THE GEORGIAN PRESIDENT “S” covertly egged on by R.S/Senator McCain.
SUMMARY POINT (MINI CONCLUSION #30)—p. 130-131, “STALKING THE ANTICHRISTS”, VOL.#1
“Palin’s ‘smoking gun’ video on TPM exposes the Randy Scheunemann/Senator McCain “August-September Surprise” (2008) in the GEORGIA INCIDENT [The trigger to the Five Day War between Russia & Georgia.] Palin falsely maintains that Russia attacked Georgia first. In truth, the invasion of South Ossetia was initiated by U.S. trained “Special Forces” of Georgia, AND facilitated by Randy Scheunemann, the paid lobbyist of Georgia President Saakashvili. Palin invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty of 25 April 1949 and mentions aid owed to Georgia & the Ukraine! A question: Was Palin’s nomination as Vice president timed with the invasion of Ossetia? WAS IT PLANNED TO HAVE BEEN A “ONE-TWO PUNCH” TO WIN IN NOVEMBER?—that famous Hilary Clinton ‘3:00 am phone call’ to an inexperienced/weak Obama versus the warrior-hero McCain to the rescue? The New York Times ran stories about average Georgians asking, “’Where is NATO?’’’ [Stalking the Antichrists, vol. #1, p. 248]
Now Palin was either specifically briefed on the neo-con plot or she had just picked up a lot of scuttlebutt about the cabal/conspiracy of Schuenemann/Saakashvili to throw the hail “St. George” pass to win the election—and it almost worked. The polls showed the McCain-Palin ticket surging, until the Lehman Brothers’ disaster in mid-September. [See TPM’s video on ‘’witchcraft” for exact quotes of Palin letting the cat out of the “Black Bag” Operation. Be your own judge.]
Or consider please GEORGE WILL’S VIEWS ON SARAH PALIN & HER CUSTODY OF HER NUCLEAR WEAPONS IF SHE EVER BECAME PRESIDENT AFTER MCCAIN’S SUDDEN DEATH. The highly respected conservative columnist, George Will made this grave warning on 28 May 2011 on ABC’s THIS WEEK regarding ”President” Palin’s ‘’control” of nuclear weapons in a future crisis –over say Jerusalem [OR THE UKRAINE!]. “Should we, dare we, give this un-hinged person nuclear weapons?” The question answered itself—THEN & NOW!!—NO! Will’s warning was replayed on “Morning Joe” at 6:58 on June 3, 2011, and I put it on my FACEBOOK wall.
The GOP chicken hawks, warmongers & character assassins continue to attack President Obama’s Ukraine policy response as feckless, weak, not tough or macho enough unlike PUTIN’S who in quick fashion, acted & seized the Crimea, while Obama dithered—again.
They, the neo/theo cons, of course will never be satisfied until they shove or trick Obama-Putin into some kind of armed conflict. Slowly ever so slowly GOP partisan pundits are recalling that during “The Five Day War” between Georgia & Russia during the late summer of 2008 Bush ’43 did little to punish Putin for taking “the small Georgian provinces of South Ossetia & Abkhazia.” Thus, Putin paid no price for the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 or for the ‘’virtual annexation” of “nearly one fifth of Georgia” which currently sits under Russian occupation. But Western capitals, including Washington, have acted as though there was never an invasion of a fellow democracy at all.
As the DOOMSDAY CLOCK on the cover of The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists inexorably ticks toward our planet’s MIDNIGHT DOOM consider some advice/wisdom/lessons Kerry may be taking to his Paris meeting with his friend the Russian SECSTATE/FOREIGN MINISTER Lavrov.
1. Given the fact that Putin “paid no price for the Russian invasion of Georgia [After “S”, the Georgian president, was conned by Randy S. into first attacking the Russian-speaking enclave of Ossetia & THEN the Russian’s attacking the Georgia invaders of Ossetia resulting in a little “Five Day’s War'' which Putin won & the Georgians lost badly, why wouldn’t Putin think of slicing off part of Ukraine as a relatively cost-free exercise?
2. The second lesson is that as important as the European Union’s “soft’’ power tools of trade & diplomacy have been in helping stabilize Central & Eastern Europe in the post-- Cold War era, THAT HAS BEEN ACCOMPLISHED IN CONJUNCTION WITH, AND MORE OFTEN THAN NOT IN THE WAKE OF THE “HARD SECURITY GUARANTEES PROVIDED BY THE NATO EXPANSION. “But it is a useful reminder that efforts to create a Europe ‘whole and free’ absent the assistance of the trans-Atlantic alliance is a far iffier proposition.”[IN OTHER WORDS NO EU SPECIAL TREATIES WITHOUT THE PROTECTION OF NATO—IF UKRAINE IS NOT TO BE A MEMBER OF NATO, THEY CANNOT EXPECT TO BE WOOED BY THE EU & SIGN that controversial “FREE TRADE AGREEMENT”—the signing of which caused the sharp Putin reaction & the move toward the Crimean VOTE on March 16th .]
3. “The third lesson is that there is no getting around the character of the Putin government trying to ‘re-set’ relations. President Obama came into office wanting to focus on domestic affairs. This meant not only ending the wars America was in but also creating a less troublesome set of relations with China & Russia.” However, ‘’the greater and overriding priority for Putin was always reclaiming Russia’s great power status. In other words, Washington and Moscow were never truly on the same page when it came to the reset of U.S. relations.”
4. And the fourth lesson Obama should learn & act on is this: Washington has let its budget hopes drive its strategic decisions. In January, the Pentagon, at the White House’s direction, issued a new strategic policy guidance that famously announced the military’s “pivot’’ to Asia. What drove it was the administration’s desire to put forward a new global strategy that would square with existing and future defense spending cuts. But this global strategy depended on events in Europe staying calm & perhaps a deal could be made in the Middle East between Israel & her Arab neighbors—THE TWO STATE SOLUTION FOR “OLD PALESTINE.”—“Suddenly these two assumptions are in contention.”
KERRY ON FRIDAY 14 MARCH UNSUCCESSFULLY PRESENTED TO LAVROV, AMERICAN “OFF-RAMP” DIPLOMATIC SOLUTIONS. THERE WILL BE NO FINAL DECISION UNTIL AFTER THE CRIMEAN VOTE.
Gary Schmitt, director of the American Enterprise Institute’s Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies, concludes his useful above insights:
“Over the longer term, these [minor economic measures] will be insufficient if the larger lessons of the past are not understood and made to underpin the strategies. PBP, March 8/9? [MY LITTORAL GRAND STRATEGY—See LOWE’S STALKING THE ANTICHRISTS, APPENDIX #4, “’Rimlands Strategy’ Seen as Basis of a New Nixon Asiatic Doctrine”, NAVY, November, 1969].
THE NEXT AND PERHAPS “FINAL” STEPS, 13-17 MARCH, “RETHINK CRIMEA VOTE”—WITH A WARNING TO RUSSIA—WITH HOPE FOR EUROPEAN/AMERICAN SUPPORT OF UKRAINE’S INDEPENDENCE/SOVEREIGNTY.
“KIEV’S MESSAGE TO MOSCOW,” OLEKSANDR V. TURCHYNOV, The Acting President of UKRAINE. NYT, OP-ED, 12 MARCH 2014 INCLUDED THESE POINTS:
o—“Ukrainians want peace, but we will not submit to Soviet-style bullying.”
o—“We are fully aware that should force be used, containing the situation would be impossible. The resolve of the Ukrainians to die defending their country, the large stockpiles of weapons, the country’s nuclear power stations, and the strategic pipelines all point to the potential magnitude of a disaster.’’
o—“In 1994, Ukraine surrendered its nuclear weapons in exchange for security guarantees from the United States, Russia and Britain [the Budapest Accords?] , and for their pledge to respect its sovereignty and territorial integrity. If this agreement is violated, it may lead to nuclear proliferation around the world and the credibility of international institutions would be severely undermined as deterrents to military aggression.
o—“An escalation of conflict would be catastrophic for the whole of Western Europe. It would put an end to the global security system, breaching its very foundations. These are very real risks. Yet the Russians’ reckless actions would be unbecoming of Somali pirates.”
o—“Today, the people of Ukraine are united as never before in the idea of collective security and European values. We choose Western standards and reject this neo-Soviet imperialism.”
The acting president of Ukraine concludes his message to Moscow on a positive note:
“Ukraine is open to any constructive dialogue with the Russian Federation that is rooted in partnership. We wish to develop fair and mutually beneficial relations. Russia must choose how it will respond.”
“The Soviet Union is no more. We must all come to terms with that fact and begin a new era of cooperation based on equality and the right of the Ukrainian people to choose their own government and their own destiny.” NYT, 12 March, 2014 .
And now we are back to the frightening predictions of RUSSIAN SCHOLAR STEPHEN F. COHEN’S warning of last SUNDAY’S Meet The Press which triggered my current screed & fears-- THAT WE ARE: EITHER TWO STEPS FROM ANOTHER CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS WITH RUSSIA OR THREE STEPS FROM A WAR!
ALONG WITH HENRY KISSINGER, PROFESSOR COHEN AGREED THAT “THE DEMONIZATION Of VLADIMIR PUTIN IS NOT A POLICY; IT IS AN ALIBI FOR THE ABSENCE OF ONE.” AND DR. COHEN THEN CORRECTLY OBSERVES:
“THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS, THE WORST AND MOST FATEFUL OF THE 21st CENTURY, IS THE OUTCOME OF WASHINGTON’S 20 YEAR BIPARTISAN POLICY TOWARD POST-SOVIET RUSSIA, SPEARHEADED BY NATO’S EASTWARD EXPANSION. I HAVE BEEN ARGUING THIS SINCE THE EARLY 1990s, LONG BEFORE MR. PUTIN APPEARED ON THE SCENE…”
“IN THIS REGARD, I AM A TRUE PATRIOT OF AMERICAN NATIONAL SECURITY—PERHAPS A HERETIC, BUT CERTAINLY NOT THE ‘VILLAIN.’”- STEPHEN F. COHEN, NEW YORK, MARCH 7, 2014 NYT’S LETTER, 11 MARCH, 2014
AN OBSERVATION & CONCLUSION
FORMER CHANCELLOR HELMUT KOHL TOLD BILD “We cannot forget: War is not policy.”
Ms. Merkel’s governing partners, the Social Democrats, issued a similar warning. “Europe stands dangerously close to the brink of a military confrontation. . . . One hundred years after the start of World War I, military force should never become the means of conducting politics. . . Europe stands at a crossroads [and] We must do everything in our power to prevent a new division of our continent and a regression into a pattern of confrontation long considered overcome.” NYT, 13 March 2014.
THE DOW JONES fell 202 points last week & it was blamed on “GEO-POLITICAL FACTORS”—Russian troops massing on the East Ukraine border.
How will the markets of the world react to THE GUNS/ROCKETS/MISSILES OF MARCH 2014?
THOSE WHO DON’T LEARN FROM HISTORY ARE STILL DOOMED TO REPEAT IT– PERHAPS WITH A NUCLEAR VENGEANCE.