OK

Arkansas politics

In elections for President, Arkansas has been solidly Republican in recent elections: Romney beat Obama 61-37 in 2012 and McCain beat Obama 59-39 in 2008, and Republican margins have increased recently.

Statewide, Arkansas' other senator, John Boozman is a Republican and all 4 of its members of the House of Representatives are Republicans. However, its governor, Mike Beebe, is a Democrat

The Senate race

Mark Pryor: The Democratic candidate for Senate from Arkansas

Pryor first won election in 2002. Progressive Punch ranks him the 52nd most progressive member of the senate, which marks him as one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate. On the Issues rates him as a "centrist". He has a mixed record on abortion and the environment, a liberal record on civil rights for gays and Blacks and on public health, and a conservative record on crime and gun rights.

Tom Cotton: The Republican candidate for Senate from Arkansas

Tom Cotton is unopposed to run against Pryor. He is currently a member of the House of Representatives. On the Issues rates him a "libertarian leaning conservative". He is anti-choice, opposed the violence against women act, wants same sex marriage to be illegal, wants ObamaCare repealed, wants extensive cuts in government services, opposes the UN and has a conservative record on conservation. Progressive Punch rates him the 367th most progressive member of the House.

The polls:
Most recent polling shows Cotton with a small lead. The latest poll from PPP shows the race even.

Fundraising

According to the FEC, at the end of 2013 Pryor had raised $5.3 million and had $4.2 million cash on hand. Cotton had raised $3.4 million and had $2.2 million cash on hand.

My take:

Although Arkansas is an increasingly Republican state, this race pits a moderate Democrat (indeed, one of the most conservative) against an ideologue and Pryor has the advantage of incumbency. I predict a close race and a Pryor victory.

Sources:

Election results: http://uselectionatlas.org/...

Fundraising and other stuff http://www.fec.gov/...

On the issues: http://www.ontheissues.org/...
PPP Poll: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

House of Representatives: http://www.house.gov/...

Poll

Who will win in Arkansas?

38%21 votes
53%29 votes
5%3 votes
1%1 votes

| 54 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.