BREAKING: Up Is Down, Left Is Right & Americans Want To Elect RepublicansThat seems to be the persistent headline of the season. The drumbeat has been throbbing on the Sunday shows for a year...
(Very Concerned Troll) "Clearly Candy, with 7 Democrat Senate seats up for grabs in states that Mitt Romney won in 2012, Reids' Senate majority is seriously at risk."
(Repeatedly Defeated Campaign Genius) "George, Obama is in GW Bush territory, the Obamacare website is his New Orleans/Katrina and this models out to be exactly like the Democrat wave of 2006."
(Pundit Last Correct in 1994) "If Democrats in congress want to have any chance this fall they need to join the millions in the streets clamoring for total repeal of Obamacare and impeachment. Frankly, I feel confident they will do it Bob."
(Mr. Least Popular Senator) "Today, we are all Malaysian Air passengers, 'cause Obama. By the way David, can I keep a toothbrush in your sock drawer?"
Wow, no wonder Team Blue seems to be doing a collective self-emolation lately. Just look at the Rec List. Hell, it makes me glad to see a NASA prediction of apocalypse just to chase off some of the "Fuck You All - That's Why I'm Here" dairies. Talk about anti-informative thought-repellant navel-gazing. This is what happens when you basically are in charge for 6 years straight. You get bored with the responsibility of steering the car. Yes, GOPers in the Hizzie have done a great job of fucking over everyone. That was their plan and we all knew it! Push us into the ditch and blame the colored driver. Media certainly doesn't mind repeating the drivel 24/7.
It just ain't true and the majority of the 'Murican public sees it. Rather than listen to Charlie Cook or Chris Matthews spout 50 years worth of spittle at the issue lets look at the public.
- 2012 was also supposed to be a treacherous year for Dems. Yet, if you remember, they took a really, REALLY, big poll at the end of 2012 and to great shock amongst the RePundit-ocracy, not only did the Kenyan Usurper get reelected by a good margin, we picked up two Senate seats AND we garnered 1.5 million more votes for House Reps than Team Mean. Only gerrymandering on a treasonous scale kept the House Red.
- How about those House preference polls that have shown the Republicans all the way up to ... even... in generic ballots (like that's a win):
PPP (D) 3/6 - 3/9 1152 RV 43 40 Democrats +3Despite pollution by numerous Ras Polls you will note that in 10 polls over the past month only one shows a Republican lead. That poll, by famous lefties CBS News, is clearly the outlier of the bunch. While, due to our rigged system, Blues will probably need a 6-7 pt lead to take the lower chamber this year, clearly the public prefers Dems to be in charge of the House of Representatives. In fact this polling advantage has maintained itself since spring of 2011, when Tea Party policy began to sink in.
Rasmussen Reports 3/3 - 3/9 3500 LV 39 39 Tie
FOX News 3/2 - 3/4 1002 RV 40 38 Democrats +2
ABC News/Wash Post 2/27 - 3/2 RV 46 45 Democrats +1
Rasmussen Reports 2/24 - 3/2 3500 LV 39 36 Democrats +3
CBS News/NY Times 2/19 - 2/23 RV 39 42 Republicans +3
Rasmussen Reports 2/17 - 2/23 3500 LV 41 37 Democrats +4
Rasmussen Reports 2/10 - 2/1 3500 LV 41 37 Democrats +4
McClatchy/Marist 2/4 - 2/9 970 RV 46 44 Democrats +2
Rasmussen Reports 2/3 - 2/9 3500 LV 40 38 Democrats +2
- The defeat of Alex Sink in a very purple district by a jail-bait chasing lobbyist speaks more to the campaign deficiencies of our candidate, who previously managed to lose to the Borg-King in the 2010 Guv'nor's race. Lets compare that to November in VA, when Dems swept a Governor, Lt. Governor, Atty. General and TWO State Senate specials elections. Why does that not speak to Democratic strengths versus a loss of one micro-turnout, House special?
- As for the effect of the dread Obamacare, I'll let the Wall Street Journal state the truth for a change:
Support for candidates who voted for the health-care law has improved dramatically in recent months, a Washington Post/ABC News poll released Tuesday shows.- Democratic candidates in both KY and GA have shown polling leads. Grimes and Nunn are political legacies who have shown outstanding fundraising and campaign chops, but they wouldn't have leads if the Republican brand wasn't tarnished. Which brings me to some real Republican woos:
The survey found respondents almost exactly split on the question of whether they would be more or less likely to vote for a congressional candidate who supports the Affordable Care Act, with 34% saying they would be more likely to vote for the candidate and 36% saying they would be less likely to do so. Some 27% said it would not make a difference.
- The latest McLatchy polling showed Democrats in congress with a paltry 33% approval rating versus a regretful 60% disapproval. That 28% deficit however, is dwarfed by a Republican approval of 22% against a 72% disapprove. That makes for a 50% approval gap.
Surely Politico should be touting a headline "Are Republicans DOOOMED?" Yeah, right.
Are their several Democratic Candidates facing tough reelects in deep Red states? Sure! Will they lose some. Yes. Are South Dakota and W.Virginia prohibitive favorites to flip? Damn straight Skippy. However, note that in Iowa, with an open seat, the Dem candidate has double digit leads over all comers. Very recent polls also show Jeane Shaheen is popular and far ahead of even Super-Candidate Scottie Brown. There is no factual reason to believe that Colorado is in play. That leaves Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, North Carolina and Michigan as the battlegrounds on which the Republic will be defended. The GOP needs to take 4 out of those 5 states to take the Senate. Of course if Team Blue holds onto their current leads in KY and GA, the odds become far worse or insurmountable for Republicans in the Senate.
Yet the trolls keep rushing out of the shadows to proclaim the death of the Democratic Party. I indeed worry about poor Maureen Dowd as she seems to be paralyzed with a horrid case of Pearl Clutching Vapors over the idea that Scott Brown would dare run again for Senate. Heavens forfend Milady! Worse yet, Democrats insist on looking for the enemy from within themselves. Ruling is tough. You have to always focus on doing the best while also achieving the possible better.
Daily Kos, the Democratic Party and the USA need far left fire breathers to constantly chastise them for their shortcomings so we don't become that which we fought against. We also need those who are willing to listen to everyone at the table, lest we forget that our Democracy is in place for all Americans regardless of whether they are Right or wrong.
The enemy we need to focus on this year is the terrible mis-representation begat by the Red gerrymandering of 2011. All parties lose elections but we face a great disenfranchisement throughout our nation of a scale even political junkies and media fail to grasp. FLA, OH, WIS, PA, NC & MI all are big population states in which voters where split close to 50/50 in congressional voting in 2012, yet they each have congressional representation of 65% to 75% Republican. They have only won by cheating and we are quibbling over purity tests?
Instead of looking for the fault in our brothers lets look for brothers who are putting up the fight. If you live in an out of play congressional district with a super safe Dem or GOP rep look to your left or right for a district that is purple and support that candidate with money... as much as you can afford or effort if you can't afford.
My House district in suburban Pittsburgh is attached to a huge swath of Republican turf and has not seen a competitive election in decades. However, 150 yards to my north is the district of Mike Doyle, a Democrat who couldn't lose with a dead girl or a live boy in his bed. On the other side of Pittsburgh is a similar suburb/exburb monster PA-12th but it is far more purple. Cobbled from the districts of former conserve-Dems Mark Critz and Jason Altmire, Republican Keith Renfus squeaked a win in 2012 so it's winnable turf. Just as important, Dems have a great candidate in the 12th, Erin McClelland. She is a terrific campaigner and she has put together a professional staff that can win. The fact that Dems have had great luck with female candidates is no small feature. Yet, the DCCC isn't putting this campaign on the radar and that is chasing money from the race. While unions across the state have chipped in Pittsburgh's own Mike Doyle is no where to be seen.
In fact, if you feel like punching a Republican Gerrimander today, why not go to Erin McClelland's Act Blue pageand give her a twenty. It'll make you feel better and it will force others to take her seriously. If you have any candidates in makable purple districts who could benefit with help from safe districts, please mention them in the comments with a link to contribute.
Yeah, punch a Republican Gerrimander, not a Democatic Kossack.