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President Barack Obama smiling and holding
On the last day for health insurance enrollment under the launch of Obamcare, millions more people have obtained health insurance, either directly through the exchanges or outside them, through Medicaid, and by staying on family plans. Based on state and federal reports, surveys and information from insurance executives, the Los Angeles Times estimates that at least 9.5 million previously uninsured people are now covered.

That includes:

  • At least six million in the new marketplaces, about 2 million of which were previously uninsured, a share that probably increased this month;
  • At least 4.5 million signed up through Medicaid or SCHIP (the children's health program+) either through expansion or discovering their eligibility when applying for private insurance—this means more on Medicaid in states that didn't accept the expansion;
  • At least three million young people, up to age 26, have gained coverage on their parents plans;

About nine million previously insured people have purchased new plans outside of the exchange. And, in a crushing blow to the Kochs and their minions, fewer than one million who had substandard plans in 2013 which were cancelled are now uninsured, compared to the five or six or even seven million the Kochs et al. claim. That's based on a Rand survey. The Republican claim that there has been a net decline in coverage because of cancellations is "not supported by survey data or insurance companies, many of which report they have retained the vast majority of their 2013 customers by renewing old policies, which is permitted in about half the states, or by moving customers to new plans."

These numbers are cautious, most well below Charles Gaba's (Brainwrap's) predictions of 13.1-16.8 million. To date, Gaba has been remarkably accurate in his forecasting at ACASignups.net. Gaba predicts that enrollments through the exchanges will hit at least 6.8 million, possibly 7 million before the end of the day. He counts between 4.7 and 6.5 new Medicaid/CHIP enrolled and 2.5 to 3.1 million young adults on their family's plans.

All of which is a big ol' problem for the GOP. Obamacare not collapse under its own weight, as they predicted. People did want to sign up for affordable health insurance, contrary to their deeply held belief. And the fact that they're still beating the repeal drum makes them look more out of touch than ever. If they really want to run on Obamacare in 2014, well, good luck to them with that.

Originally posted to Joan McCarter on Mon Mar 31, 2014 at 07:30 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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