OK

dKos reader poll. 1/31. 11,117 respondents.

                        Jan  Nov  Sep  Aug  Jul  Jun

Feingold        30  19  19  16  10  10
Clark           22  26  34  35  34  26
Warner          12  14   4   3   5   5
Edwards          8  12  10   7   7   8
No Freakin' Clue 6   6   6   9  13  17
Other            6   2   3   4   4   7
H. Clinton       3   6   8   9  10  10
Kerry            3   2   2   1   2   2
Richardson       3   5   3   4   4   4
Bayh             1   1   1   1   2   2
Biden            1   1   3   3   3   3
Vilsack          0   0   0   0   0   0

While this isn't a scientific poll of the Democratic Party rank and file, at 11K+ results it's a pretty darn accurate poll of the sentiments of the Daily Kos community.

And what do we learn? There are two tier's emerging -- the top tier includes those candidates with some traction in the netroots -- Feingold, Clark, Warner and Edwards, and those that have none -- Hillary, Kerry, Biden, Bayh, and poor, ol', forgotten Fox News Democrat Tom Vilsack. It's also a very nice division between the "insider" and "outsider" candidates.

I'm impressed with Kerry's numbers -- proving that to gain support with the netroots candidates have to do more than a one-off. Kerry took a tough stance on the filibuster battle. And while many might argue whether it was a "pander" or not, it's clear that community support is built with long-term constructive engagement. Of course, given his performance in 2004, Kerry has a higher hurdle than most.

H. Clinton still leads most of the 2008 polling among the general populace but is quickly sliding into irrelevance around these parts. Kerry in 2004 showed that the netroots didn't stand a chance against larger institutional forces. But Daily Kos traffic has nearly tripled from January 2005, and that traffic had nearly trippled from January 2004 when Dean hit the Iowa buzzsaw, and those growth trends (and those across the progressive blogosphere in general) aren't slowing. It'll be a radically different landscape in the 2007 primary battle.

I still think Warner is the person to watch, with Feingold a potential top-tier competitor for the "anti-Hillary" slot as he seemingly bleeds Clark's support away.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Feb 01, 2006 at 10:07 AM PST.

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