OK

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/3-6. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

Young (R) 42
Berkowitz (D) 49

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

Stevens (R) 41
Begich (D) 47

Wow, wow, wow. Berkowitz is already running hard, and it's clear his will be a top pickup opportunity as Young is weighed down with his corruption.

But those Senate numbers are shocking, as clearly the bribery and corruption legal cases currently creeping closer to Stevens (who is near a possible indictment) take their toll on his popularity. Begich won't announce any candidacy until sometime between March and May. But if he bows out of the race, he'll do so before the end of the year. So if we hear nothing in the next three weeks, we're home free and Republicans will face yet another top-tier battle in their fight to limit their losses.

Full results below the fold.

ALASKA POLL RESULTS - DECEMBER 2007
                                                                 

The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from December 3 through December

6, 2007. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 292   (49%)              
Women               308   (51%)
Democrats           114   (19%)    
Republicans         198   (33%)    
Independents/Other  288   (48%)
18-29                96   (16%)
30-44               210   (35%)
45-59               204   (34%)
60+                  90   (15%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 17%     28%     11%      7%     37%

MEN                 16%     26%     13%      9%     36%
WOMEN               18%     30%      9%      5%     38%
DEMOCRATS           33%     43%      5%      3%     16%
REPUBLICANS          5%     14%     19%     11%     51%
INDEPENDENTS        19%     31%      8%      6%     36%
18-29               20%     31%      8%      4%     37%
30-44               15%     27%     13%      8%     37%
45-59               19%     29%      9%      7%     36%
60+                 14%     25%     15%      9%     37%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 13%     27%     33%     21%      6%

MEN                 14%     30%     30%     20%      6%
WOMEN               12%     24%     36%     22%      6%
DEMOCRATS            6%      9%     49%     29%      7%
REPUBLICANS         20%     42%     19%     13%      6%
INDEPENDENTS        12%     24%     36%     23%      5%
18-29                9%     24%     36%     24%      7%
30-44               15%     29%     31%     19%      6%
45-59               12%     25%     34%     23%      6%
60+                 16%     30%     30%     18%      6%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 20%     28%     12%      7%     33%

MEN                 18%     26%     12%      7%     34%
WOMEN               22%     30%     10%      6%     32%
DEMOCRATS           32%     38%      6%      3%     21%
REPUBLICANS         11%     22%     18%     11%     38%
INDEPENDENTS        22%     29%     10%      6%     33%
18-29               24%     31%      9%      4%     32%
30-44               18%      2%     14%      9%     33%
45-59               22%     30%     10%      5%     33%
60+                 17%     25%     15%     10%     33%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 12%     27%     35%     23%      3%

MEN                 14%     31%     33%     21%      1%
WOMEN               10%     23%     37%     25%      5%
DEMOCRATS            6%     15%     49%     27%      3%
REPUBLICANS         19%     37%     23%     18%      3%
INDEPENDENTS        10%     25%     38%     25%      2%
18-29                9%     23%     39%     27%      2%
30-44               14%     30%     33%     20%      3%
45-59               10%     24%     37%     26%      3%
60+                 15%     31%     31%     19%      4%
-----


QUESTION: If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

                  YOUNG       BERKOWITZ     UNDECIDED        

ALL                 42%         49%          9%

MEN                 46%         46%          8%
WOMEN               38%         52%         10%
DEMOCRATS            8%         83%          9%
REPUBLICANS         72%         18%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        35%         57%          8%
18-29               38%         52%         10%
30-44               45%         45%          8%
45-59               40%         40%         10%
60+                 46%         46%          8%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

                  STEVENS      BEGICH        UNDECIDED        

ALL                 41%         47%         12%

MEN                 46%         43%         11%
WOMEN               36%         51%         13%
DEMOCRATS            7%         81%         12%
REPUBLICANS         81%          7%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        35%         55%         10%
18-29               37%         51%         12%
30-44               44%         45%         11%
45-59               39%         48%         13%
60+                 44%         44%         12%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

                  APPROVE     DISAPPROVE    NOT SURE        

ALL                 42%         57%          1%

MEN                 46%         53%          1%
WOMEN               38%         61%          1%
DEMOCRATS            7%         93%          0%
REPUBLICANS         75%         24%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        34%         65%          1%
18-29               39%         60%          1%
30-44               44%         55%          1%
45-59               41%         58%          1%
60+                 45%         53%          2%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 09:07 AM PST.

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