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Some of you may remember that in the early morning hours of February 6 (the morning after Super Duper Tuesday) the Obama campaign "inadvertently" attached an excel spreadsheet that contained their projections on the pledged delegate count for the previous night's contests and all remaining contests.  

``This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios,'' Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said. He added that the information was released unintentionally.

Still I thought it might be fun to revisit those projections three weeks later after eleven more contests...

UPDATE (1:20 PM PST):  Thanks to Searching for Pericles I updated the Tennessee numbers giving one more delegate to Clinton (and one less to Obama).

First let's compare how Obama's campaign thought he had done on February 5th with how it turns out they did  (positive margins favor Obama, negative margins favor Clinton)...
StatePledged TotalActual ObamaActual ClintonActual MarginPredicted ObamaPredicted ClintonPredicted MarginError
Alabama522725229236-4
Alaska139459450
Am. Samoa312-112-10
Arizona562531-62531-60
Arkansas35827-19827-190
California370167203-36161209-4812
Colorado553718193718190
Connecticut4826224262240
Delaware159639630
Georgia876027336027330
Idaho1815312153120
Illinois153104495510152496
Kansas3223914239140
Massachusetts933855-173756-192
Minnesota724824244824240
Missouri7236360363600
New Jersey1074859-114859-110
New Mexico261214-213130-2
New York23293139-4695137-42-4
North Dakota138538530
Oklahoma381424-101424-100
Tennessee682840-122939-10-2
Utah231495131032
Total168185083119845836910

Those actual numbers are based on the best information I can find.  When possible I've been using official sources for the results.  Overall Obama did better than his campaign had initially thought as more votes were counted.  In particular he picked up 6 more delegates from Clinton in California (a 12 delegate swing) and 3 more in Illinois (a 6 delegate swing).  In New York he lost two delegates (a 4 delegate swing) and in every other state his count appears accurate up to +/- a delegate.

Now let's look at the remaining February contests we've had since then...
StatePledged TotalActual ObamaActual ClintonActual MarginPredicted ObamaPredicted ClintonPredicted MarginError
Louisiana56342212312566
Nebraska24168815962
Virgin Islands33032112
Washington785325284929208
Maine2415961014-410
Democrats Abroad74.52.52523-1
District of Columbia1512399636
Maryland704228143733410
Virginia835429254340322
Hawaii20146811926
Wisconsin74423210403464
Total454289.5164.51252522025075

As you can see his campaign knew he would do well in February.  They thought they would win every contest except Maine.  Their projections were modest, though.  With the exception of Democrats Abroad (where it looks like they'll take a 4.5-2.5 victory instead of a 5-2 victory) they did better in every single contest.  In Maine, Maryland, and Virginia they did much better than they had projected.  In total they got a swing of 75 more delegates than they had thought.  That's huge.  So before Tuesday, let's look at what the campaign was projecting for the remaining contests...
StatePledged TotalPredicted ObamaPredicted ClintonPredicted Margin
Ohio1416873-5
Rhode Island21813-5
Texas19392101-9
Vermont15963
Wyoming12752
Mississippi3320137
Pennsylvania1587583-8
Guam4220
Indiana7239336
North Carolina11561547
West Virginia281315-2
Kentucky512328-5
Oregon5228244
Montana16972
South Dakota15871
Puerto Rico552530-5
Total981487494-7

So back in early February Obama's campaign was projecting--yes, just one scenario--that they would not do quite as well as Clinton in the remaining contests, but that they would keep it close.  For Tuesday's states they thought they would only win Vermont, but stay within 10 delegates in each of the other states.  Interestingly it looks like they thought they would do better in Ohio than Texas.  After that they thought they would win Wyoming, Mississippi, Indiana, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota.  They thought they would split Guam and lose Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Puerto Rico.  Seems reasonable to me except that (1) I'm not sure what they believed would give them such an edge in Indiana and (2) I think their margins of victories in those other states they predict they'll win will be once again significantly larger.  Well, we'll see.

Originally posted to Galois on Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 12:45 PM PST.

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