With all of the talk to redo the primaries in Michigan and Florida and (I feel that it will happen) Obama needs to seriously focus on Michigan becuse the Democratic party is very much like Ohio.  Here is what he needs to do...  

  First of all the Dem party in Michigan heavily favors Hillary for many reasons the first one being that the party still has old strong union ties which tends to be more conservative and reluctant to support newcomers like Obama (This I believe was the case in Ohio). That may be an over generalization but a helpful snapshot none-the-less.

 Winning the state of Michigan depends on how well you do in the Saginaw/Bay City/Genesee County area which looks like it favors Hillary(strong union ties).  The areas that probably favor Obama would be the college towns of Ann Arbor and Lansing as well as parts of Detroit and the U.P. Wayne County is huge and will probably take up most of Obama's  time and money he should work on keeping it close there.

 The timing of the primary could be good or bad for Obama because it looks like the primary could take place in May or June.  College students will be away from campus in their home towns which can be good but overall the state of Michigan has an older population(favors Hillary).  

 Obama should start to work on getting the support of Gary Peters who is running against Joe Knollenburg and especially Mike Shauer who is running against Tim Walberg who is a very weak republican.

 Gov. Granholm, Rep.John Dingell, Rep.Dale Kildee, Rep. Sander Levin have endorsed Hillary. Sen. Debbie Stabenow has endorsed Hillary but has hinted at voting for Obama.  Sen. Carl Levin hasn't endorsed anyone that I know of mainly because he is up for reelection this year.  My feeling is that he is leaning towards Hillary but Obama should work on him if he already hasn't.

 NAFTA is a big issue in Michigan like Ohio and many blue collar Dem's blame NAFTA for the economic downfall of the state. On the other hand many blue collar Dem's feel that NAFTA was regulated better by Bill Clinton rather than Bush so using NAFTA against Clinton might not work.  Obama's message should mainly be on the economy in Michigan.  His message should include he comes from a state like Michigan (Illinois) and that can relate better to the voters than Hillary.

 The talk is that the state Dem party is considering a "Fire House" primary which would have less polling stations and less time to vote.  I can only see this favoring Hillary if anything the party should conduct a caucus which is paid for by the party and favors Obama.  If the state party favors a primary the state GOP could use that as ammunition against the Dems for wasting tax payers money which also favors Hillary.  Crossover voting for Hillary by republicans will definently happen.  Michigan has a history of crossover voting by both parties (How do you think Romney won?)

 One good thing that did come out of the Michigan primary is that a good chunk of voters voted "uncommited" despite the cold weather and heavy snow fall.  This is a result for the siezeable support for Edwards which an endorsement by him for Obama in Michigan would be huge.


 All in all the Michigan primary redo is a complete mess and we can only hope things turn out for the best soon.



Originally posted to Zachariahs Blood on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 08:42 AM PST.


Should Obama start deploying his campaign to Michigan ASAP?

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