OK

That last thread on the SUSA national poll is getting huge, so I'll use this as overflow.

Bowers took a look at the point spreads:

Solid Clinton--77 (eleven or more points): AR, DC, IL, MA, NY, RI

Lean Clinton--126 (six to ten points): CA, CT, FL, ME, MD, OH, VT

Toss Up--135 (five points or less): DE, HI, IA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NM, OR, PA, TN, WA, WV, WI

Lean McCain--136 (six to ten points): AL, CO, KS, KY, LA, MS, NV, NH, NC, OK, SC, TX, VA

Solid McCain--65 (eleven or more points): AK, AZ, GA, ID, IN, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY

[...]

Solid Obama--163 (eleven or more points): CA, CT, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, NY, RI, VT, WA, WI

Lean Obama--66 (six to ten points): CO, DE, MA, MN, NM, OH, OR

Toss-up--186: (five points or less): AK, FL, MI, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NC, ND, PA, TX, VA

Lean McCain--25 (six to ten points): IN, MO, MT

Solid McCain--98 (eleven or more points): AL, AZ, AR, GA, ID, KY, LA, MS, OK, TN, UT, WV, WY

Despite seemingly similarity in their performance against McCain, this breakdown shows real differences between Obama and Clinton in the general election. Against Obama, McCain's "solid" and "lean" states only add up to 123, while Obama's add up to 229. In a matchup against Clinton, the "solid" and "lean" states are of equal size: 201 for McCain, and 203 for Clinton. In other words, while McCain and Clinton appear evenly matched, McCain is only able to keep it close against Obama by running up a series of narrow wins in the toss-up states.

Excellent point. Obama does expand the map (what Mark Warner used to claim he'd be able to do as a "map changer"), and puts more pressure across the board on McCain.

Incidentally, people are incredulous about McCain's strength in Washington. Well, Rasmussen confirms it'll be a fierce battleground:

Rasmussen. 2/28. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%

Obama 44
McCain 45

Clinton 40
McCain 48

Can't take anything for granted.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 02:15 PM PST.

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