OK

Given Lieberman's high-profile efforts on behalf of John McCain, I wondered how his constituents were taking it. So I had independent pollster Research 2000 reprise a poll I commissioned last year testing a rematch between Ned Lamont and Joe Lieberman. I found last year that buyer's remorse had set in. It's even worse this year.

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 3/31-4/2. Regular voters. MoE 4% (9/10-12/2007 results)


If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

All

Lamont (D)      51 (48)  
Lieberman (I)   37 (40)
Schlesinger (R)  7  (9)

Democrats

Lamont (D)      74 (72)  
Lieberman (I)   19 (25)
Schlesinger (R)  2  (3)

Republicans

Lamont (D)       4  (7)  
Lieberman (I)   74 (69)
Schlesinger (R) 19 (24)

Independents

Lamont (D)      53 (49)  
Lieberman (I)   36 (38)
Schlesinger (R)  6  (9)

Lieberman has shored up his support with Republicans, who clearly see him as one of their own. He has predictably lost ground among Democrats. But interestingly, he also lost the same amount of ground (six points) with independents.

Clearly, his whole "independent" schtick isn't playing well with real independent voters. I'll have more on this poll later today. The crosstabs are below the fold. Crosstabs for last year's poll can be found here. Unfortunately, there's no approve/disapprove numbers from last time since I forgot to ask for that data (I think it was my first poll ever commissioned).

CONNECTICUT POLL RESULTS - APRIL 2008

The Research 2000 Connecticut Poll was conducted from March 31 through April 2, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURE:

Men                 282  (48%)              
Women               318  (52%)
Democrats           211  (35%)    
Republicans         113  (19%)    
Independents/Other  276  (46%)

18-29               108  (18%)
30-44               192  (32%)
45-59               174  (29%)
60+                 126  (21%)


QUESTION: For whom did you vote for in the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?
                             
            LIEBERMAN  LAMONT  SCHLESINGER    

ALL            48%       43%        9%

MEN            51%       39%       10%
WOMEN          45%       47%        8%
DEMOCRATS      33%       64%        3%
REPUBLICANS    69%       10%       21%
INDEPENDENTS   51%       41%        8%

18-29          40%       54%        6%
30-44          43%       48%        9%
45-59          53%       38%        9%
60+            55%       34%       11%


QUESTION: If you could vote again for U.S. Senate, would you vote for Ned Lamont, the Democrat, Alan Schlesinger, the Republican, or Joe Lieberman, an Independent?

              LAMONT  LIEBERMAN  SCHLESINGER  NOT SURE

ALL             51%       37%        7%        5%

MEN             47%       40%        9%        4%
WOMEN           55%       34%        5%        6%
DEMOCRATS       74%       19%        2%        5%
REPUBLICANS      4%       74%       19%        3%
INDEPENDENTS    53%       36%        6%        5%

18-29           67%       27%        2%        4%
30-44           55%       31%        8%        6%
45-59           44%       44%        7%        5%
60+             41%       46%        9%        4%


QUESTION: If John McCain selected Joe Lieberman to be his Vice Presidential running mate, would it make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or would it have no real affect on your vote?

               MORE      LESS     NO AFFECT        

ALL             18%       31%       51%

MEN             21%       27%       52%
WOMEN           15%       35%       50%
DEMOCRATS        7%       41%       52%
REPUBLICANS     43%       12%       45%
INDEPENDENTS    16%       32%       52%

18-29            6%       42%       52%                
30-44           15%       35%       50%                
45-59           22%       27%       51%                
60+             27%       23%       50%                  


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Joe Lieberman is doing as U.S. senator?

              APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

ALL             47%       40%       13%

MEN             52%       37%       11%
WOMEN           42%       43%       15%
DEMOCRATS       40%       45%       15%
REPUBLICANS     62%       32%        6%
INDEPENDENTS    46%       40%       14%

18-29           37%       52%       11%
30-44           45%       46%        9%
45-59           51%       34%       15%
60+             52%       30%       18%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

              APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

ALL             21%       78%        1%

MEN             24%       75%        1%
WOMEN           18%       81%        1%
DEMOCRATS        5%       94%        1%
REPUBLICANS     68%       31%        1%
INDEPENDENTS    14%       85%        1%

18-29           13%       87%        -
30-44           18%       81%        1%
45-59           24%       75%        1%
60+             27%       72%        1%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Dick Cheney is doing as Vice President?

              APPROVE  DISAPPROVE  NOT SURE  

ALL             15%       84%        1%

MEN             17%       82%        1%
WOMEN           13%       86%        1%
DEMOCRATS        2%       97%        1%
REPUBLICANS     60%       39%        1%
INDEPENDENTS     7%       92%        1%

18-29            4%       95%        1%
30-44           16%       83%        1%
45-59           18%       81%        1%
60+             20%       79%        1%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 06:19 AM PDT.

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