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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (12/3-6 results)

If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

Young     (R) 40 (42)
Berkowitz (D) 50 (49)

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

Stevens   (R) 43 (41)
Begich    (D) 48 (47)

I was shocked to see the numbers after the first poll. I was even worried that they might be a bit of an outlier. But then Stevens' own pollster helpfully confirmed the numbers.

Local pollsters are not surprised by the numbers. Dave Dittman, who's firm Dittman Research is polling for Stevens, said the publicity on corruption investigations is hurting the Republicans.

"It's interesting and it's early but I wasn't shocked," Dittman said. "Both Congressman Young and Sen. Stevens have been under attack (or) at least the subject of a lot of negative information and news stories and things for almost two years. I would think it's got to have an effect."

So we knew they weren't off base.

This new poll confirms that we've just got a bit of float in the MoE. The Democrats are still leading their corrupt Republican incumbents. And Alaska is definitely a state where Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket will pay HUGE dividends:

McCain  (R) 49
Obama   (D) 42

McCain  (R) 55
Clinton (D) 37

You better believe Begich and Berkowitz are cheering Obama's primary victory. Meanwhile, Obama is legitimately competitive in the state. That's some map-changing mojo at work.

Must be all the black people and latte sippers that live in Alaska.

ALASKA POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008

The Research 2000 Alaska Poll was conducted from May 12 through May 14, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                290   (49%)              
Women              310   (51%)
Democrats          120   (20%)    
Republicans        191   (32%)    
Independents/Other 289   (48%)
18-29              102   (17%)
30-44              216   (36%)
45-59              198   (33%)
60+                 84   (14%)


U.S CONGRESS:

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 19%     30%     12%     11%     28%

MEN                 17%     27%     16%     13%     27%
WOMEN               21%     33%      8%      9%     29%  
DEMOCRATS           37%     46%      6%      5%      6%
REPUBLICANS          6%     16%     20%     18%     40%
INDEPENDENTS        21%     33%      9%      9%     28%
18-29               23%     34%      8%      5%     30%
30-44               16%     29%     14%     13%     28%
45-59               21%     31%     10%     10%     28%
60+                 15%     27%     16%     15%     27%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Don Young? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 11%     27%     35%     23%      4%

MEN                 13%     32%     31%     21%      3%  
WOMEN                9%     22%     39%     25%      5%
DEMOCRATS            4%      8%     53%     32%      3%
REPUBLICANS         19%     43%     20%     14%      4%
INDEPENDENTS         9%     25%     38%     25%      3%
18-29                6%     23%     39%     27%      5%
30-44               13%     29%     33%     21%      4%
45-59               10%     25%     36%     25%      4%
60+                 15%     30%     31%     20%      4%


QUESTION: If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

                   BERKOWITZ     YOUNG    UNDECIDED    

ALL                 50%         40%         10%

MEN                 46%         45%          9%
WOMEN               54%         35%         11%
DEMOCRATS           85%          6%          9%
REPUBLICANS         18%         71%         11%
INDEPENDENTS        57%         34%          9%
18-29               54%         35%         11%
30-44               47%         44%          9%
45-59               52%         38%         10%
60+                 46%         44%         10%


U.S. SENATE:

QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 21%     31%     14%     11%     23%      

MEN                 19%     28%     18%     13%     22%
WOMEN               23%     34%     10%      9%     24%  
DEMOCRATS           33%     40%      7%      5%     15%
REPUBLICANS          9%     21%     24%     18%     28%
INDEPENDENTS        24%     34%     11%      9%     22%
18-29               24%     34%     11%      7%     24%
30-44               19%     30%     17%     13%     21%
45-59               23%     32%     12%      8%     25%
60+                 18%     27%     16%     16%     23%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 10%     28%     34%     24%      4%

MEN                 12%     32%     31%     22%      3%
WOMEN                8%     24%     37%     26%      5%
DEMOCRATS            4%     14%     50%     30%      2%
REPUBLICANS         19%     41%     20%     17%      3%
INDEPENDENTS         7%     25%     37%     26%      5%
18-29                6%     23%     39%     29%      3%
30-44               12%     31%     32%     21%      4%
45-59                8%     25%     35%     27%      5%
60+                 13%     33%     30%     19%      5%

QUESTION: If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

                  BEGICH      STEVENS      UNDECIDED

ALL                 48%         43%          9%

MEN                 44%         48%          8%
WOMEN               52%         38%         10%
DEMOCRATS           84%          7%          9%
REPUBLICANS         14%         76%         10%
INDEPENDENTS        56%         36%          8%
18-29               53%         38%          9%
30-44               45%         45%         10%
45-59               50%         42%          8%
60+                 45%         46%          9%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

                  APPROVE     DISAPPROVE

ALL                 39%         61%

MEN                 42%         58%
WOMEN               36%         64%
DEMOCRATS            5%         95%
REPUBLICANS         73%         27%
INDEPENDENTS        31%         69%
18-29               35%         65%
30-44               42%         58%
45-59               37%         63%
60+                 43%         57%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

                   MCCAIN      OBAMA      UNDECIDED

ALL                 49%         42%          9%    

MEN                 55%         38%          7%        
WOMEN               43%         46%         11%
DEMOCRATS           10%         86%          4%
REPUBLICANS         78%          9%         13%
OTHER               47%         45%          8%
18-29               42%         50%          8%
30-44               53%         36%         11%
45-59               45%         48%          7%
60+                 55%         35%         10%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

                   MCCAIN      CLINTON     UNDECIDED

ALL                 55%         37%          8%    

MEN                 62%         32%          6%        
WOMEN               48%         42%         10%
DEMOCRATS           12%         84%          4%
REPUBLICANS         81%          7%         12%
OTHER               56%         37%          7%
18-29               47%         46%          7%
30-44               60%         31%          9%
45-59               51%         42%          7%
60+                 61%         30%          9%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu May 15, 2008 at 10:40 AM PDT.

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