OK

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/19-21. Likely voters. MoE 4% (12/10-12 results)

Wicker (R) 46 (47)
Musgrove (D) 42 (39)

That splits the previous poll's margin by half, well within the poll's margin of error. Not as delicious as the DSCC's poll released earlier this week showing an 8-point Musgrove lead, but still enough to suggest that this is now legitimately a top-tier race.

Full cross-tabs below.

Update: I guess that the question is a bit off. Ballots in Mississippi don't include partisan identification. So the question should be asked without mentioning that Musgrove is a Democrat and Wicker is a Republican. It's a little twist that likely helped us in the special election last week, and will help Musgrove this November. In fact, that might be a key difference between this poll and the DSCC poll.

Update II: Or maybe not. Nevermind. Chrississippi in the comments says they do carry partisan ID. The special election didn't, but that was apparently a special situation.

Update III: Original sentiment might be correct because this one WILL be a special election as well (Wicker was appointed to the seat to replace Trent Lott, who left for K Street like all good, corrupt Republicans). From the Cook Report (subscription required):

One factor that worked to [Travis] Childers's benefit [in his MS-01 special election victory] was that the candidates' party affiliations were not on the ballot because it was a special election.   They won't be on the ballot in the Senate race either since it is a special election.   This means that Republican-leaning voters can't simply rely on a party label to make their choice.

(From Singer at MyDD.)

I'll try to get concrete confirmation on the ballot status. If the ballot does not include partisan identification, my next edition of this poll will omit that information from the poll question.

Update IV: Rothenberg says no Party IDs as well:

Like the 1st District race, party labels will not appear on the ballot beside Wicker and Musgrove’s name, because the November race is technically a special election to fill Republican Trent Lott’s seat. That factor could help Musgrove win voters who are also planning to vote for Republican Sen. John McCain, who is winning the state 50%-41%, according to the poll. President Bush won Mississippi 59%-39% in 2004.

Update V: Yup, the DSCC's poll didn't include party ID.

The candidates in a special election for U.S. Senate this November are Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker – which one do you think you’ll support? (IF UNDECIDED) Well, which one do you lean toward at this time?

That could account for a large part of the difference between the two polls. We're looking EVEN BETTER in this race than this poll would indicate.

MISSISSIPPI POLL RESULTS - MAY 2008

The Research 2000 Mississippi Poll was conducted from May 19 through May 21, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.  

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.  


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                 290   (49%)              
Women               310   (51%)
Democrats           241   (40%)    
Republicans         269   (45%)    
Independents/Other   90   (15%)
18-29               103   (17%)
30-44               193   (32%)
45-59               191   (31%)
60+                 113   (19%)
White               390   (65%)
Black               210   (35%)
Delta/Jackson       216   (36%)
Northeast           149   (25%)
Southeast           235   (39%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ronnie Musgrove? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 12%     34%     21%     12%     21%

MEN                 10%     31%     25%     11%     30%
WOMEN               11%     33%     15%      9%     32%
DEMOCRATS           17%     43%      8%      3%     29%
REPUBLICANS          5%     22%     26%     17%     30%
INDEPENDENTS         8%     28%     20%     10%     34%
18-29               13%     35%     12%      6%     34%
30-44                9%     30%     19%     11%     31%
45-59                8%     29%     20%     11%     32%
60+                  8%     28%     20%     12%     32%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Roger Wicker? (If favorable or unfavorable, ask if it is very or not):

                    VERY                   VERY
                    FAV    FAV    UNFAV    UNFAV   NO OPINION  

ALL                 16%     36%     15%     10%     23%

MEN                 18%     38%     14%      9%     21%
WOMEN               14%     34%     16%     11%     25%
DEMOCRATS            7%     22%     24%     16%     31%
REPUBLICANS         24%     49%      7%      5%     15%
INDEPENDENTS        16%     35%     16%     11%     22%

18-29               12%     32%     19%     13%     24%
30-44               16%     37%     14%      9%     24%
45-59               18%     38%     14%      9%     21%
60+                 19%     38%     13%      8%     22%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote for Ronnie Musgrove, the Democrat, or Roger Wicker, the Republican?

                  WICKER      MUSGROVE    UNDECIDED

ALL                 46%         42%         12%

MEN                 50%         39%         11%
WOMEN               42%         45%         13%
DEMOCRATS            8%         82%         10%
REPUBLICANS         80%          6%         14%
INDEPENDENTS        45%         43%         12%

WHITE               65%         26%          9%
BLACK                9%         73%         18%

18-29               41%         47%         12%
30-44               47%         41%         12%
45-59               47%         40%         13%
60+                 49%         39%         12%

DELTA/JACKSON       42%         48%         10%
NORTHEAST           50%         38%         12%
SOUTHEAST           48%         39%         13%


QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

                  APPROVE     DISAPPROVE    NOT SURE  

ALL                 42%         57%          1%

MEN                 46%         53%          1%
WOMEN               38%         61%          1%
DEMOCRATS            6%         93%          1%
REPUBLICANS         75%         24%          1%
INDEPENDENTS        40%         59%          1%

18-29               34%         65%          1%
30-44               43%         56%          1%
45-59               45%         54%          1%
60+                 46%         53%          1%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

                  MCCAIN       OBAMA      UNDECIDED

ALL                 54%         39%          7%    

MEN                 58%         37%          5%        
WOMEN               50%         41%          9%
DEMOCRATS           12%         81%          7%
REPUBLICANS         91%          4%          5%
OTHER               58%         31%         11%

WHITE               80%         18%          2%
BLACK                5%         79%         16%

18-29               48%         45%          7%
30-44               57%         38%          5%
45-59               53%         38%          9%
60+                 58%         35%          7%

DELTA/JACKSON       47%         47%          6%
NORTHEAST           59%         34%          7%
SOUTHEAST           58%         35%          7%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between Hillary Clinton, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

                  MCCAIN      CLINTON     UNDECIDED

ALL                 55%         36%          9%

MEN                 60%         33%          7%        
WOMEN               50%         39%         11%
DEMOCRATS           14%         75%         11%
REPUBLICANS         91%          5%          4%
OTHER               59%         25%         16%

WHITE               80%         18%          2%
BLACK                5%         79%         16%

18-29               48%         45%          7%
30-44               57%         38%          5%
45-59               53%         38%          9%
60+                 58%         35%          7%

DELTA/JACKSON       48%         42%         10%
NORTHEAST           60%         33%          7%
SOUTHEAST           59%         33%          8%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu May 22, 2008 at 05:00 PM PDT.

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