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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 7/14-16. Likely voters. MoE 4% (5/12-14 results)

If 2008 election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican?

Young (R) 40 (40)
Berkowitz (D) 51 (50)

If 2008 election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

Stevens (R) 45 (43)
Begich (D) 47 (48)


If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

McCain (R) 51 (49)
Obama (D) 41 (42)

Full cross-tabs are below the fold.

It's been two months since the last polls, but the numbers are fairly static, bobbing around well within the margin of error. Obama has lost three points, Begich has lost three points, and Berkowitz has gained one. Of course, even if it's just float within the MoE, it looks nicer when the numbers are trending in our direction. There's no doubt that this Senate race will be particularly tight.

This is a dirt-cheap state to advertise in. The cheapest, or second-cheapest, depending who you ask and how they count it, and the most efficient place to spend your money according to one of Poblano's analysis.

Note, Don Young is facing two challengers in the GOP primary (August 26), so root for the corrupt old bastard over challengers Sean Parnell and Gabrielle LeDoux, and pray that federal investigators don't swoop in with premature indictments before the primary. Be particularly glad that the anti-Young vote is being split in two. Young will need just a plurality to survive.

Democrat Ethan Berkowitz is also facing a primary against Diane Benson, the 2006 nominee. Berkowitz has so dominated the money race (with an 8-1 disparity on CoH) that I've failed to see a reason to include Benson in this polling. That may be a bad call on my part -- the most money doesn't always win. But one other data point has kept me skeptical of her chances: The Benson campaign released a poll last year taken between 10/27-11/2 that showed her trailing 29-21. There's been no subsequent polling released in the race, which doesn't necessarily mean the Benson campaign is hiding bad news (they could be trying to lull Berkowitz to sleep), but still means the only public poll on the race showed her at 21 percent with little money available to help drive those numbers up.

Still, these matchups aren't necessarily the matchups we might see post-primary day, but are the most probable. I hate late primaries.

New Mississippi numbers coming within the next two weeks.

On the web:
Orange to Blue ActBlue Page (Begich is an O2B candidate)
Mark Begich for Senate
Ethan Berkowitz for Congress
Diane Benson for Congress

Alaska Poll Results July 2008

poll conducted 14-Jul 16-Jul 2008, 600 likely voters interviewed state wide by telephone. Margin for error 4%.


Sample Figures

Men       293       49%
Women     307       51%

Dem       121       20%
Rep       186       31%
Ind       293       49%

18-29     108       18%
30-44     210       35%
45-59     192       32%
60+        90       15%

Anchorage 289       48%
Cen/oth    95       16%
Fair/Jun  216       36%


Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Ethan Berkowitz?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure

All       20%       32%       16%       13%       19%

Men       18%       29%       20%       15%       18%
Women     22%       35%       12%       11%       20%

Dem       37%       47%        7%        5%        4%
Rep        6%       16%       24%       21%       33%
Ind       22%       37%       14%       11%       16%

18-29     24%       37%       10%        7%       22%
30-44     17%       31%       19%       15%       18%
45-59     22%       33%       14%       12%       19%
60+       16%       27%       21%       18%       18%


Do you have a favorable or un favorable opinion of Don Young?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure

All       11%       26%       36%       25%        2%

Men       13%       30%       33%       23%        1%
Women      9%       22%       39%       27%        3%

Dem        4%        7%       54%       34%        1%
Rep       19%       43%       20%       15%        3%
Ind        9%       24%       38%       27%        2%

18-29      5%       22%       42%       28%        3%
30-44     13%       29%       34%       23%        1%
45-59     10%       24%       37%       27%        2%
60+       15%       29%       32%       22%        2%


If the election for Congress were held today, for whom would you vote for if the choices
were between Ethan Berkowitz, the Democrat, and Don Young, the Republican ?

       Berkowitz   Young     Undecided

All       51%       40%        9%

Men       47%       45%        8%
Women     55%       35%       10%

Dem       86%        6%        8%
Rep       18%       71%       11%
Ind       58%       34%        8%

18-29     55%       34%       11%
30-44     48%       44%        8%
45-59     53%       38%        9%
60+       47%       44%        9%

Anchorage 50%       39%       11%
Cen/oth   45%       48%        7%
Fair/Jun  56%       37%        7%


Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mark Begich?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure
All       20%       32%       15%       12%       21%

Men       18%       29%       19%       14%       20%
Women     22%       35%       11%       10%       22%

Dem       33%       43%        7%        6%       11%
Rep        8%       20%       26%       20%       26%
Ind       22%       35%       11%       10%       22%

18-29     25%       36%       11%        8%       20%
30-44     18%       30%       18%       14%       20%
45-59     22%       33%       14%        9%       22%
60+       15%       27%       18%       18%       22%


Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Ted Stevens?

         Very      Very      Not
         Fav       Fav       UnFav     UnFav     Sure

All        9%       27%       35%       26%        3%

Men       11%       31%       32%       24%        2%
Women      7%       23%       38%       28%        4%

Dem        3%       13%       51%       32%        1%
Rep       18%       41%       20%       18%        3%
Ind        6%       24%       38%       28%        4%

18-29      5%       21%       41%       32%        1%
30-44     11%       30%       33%       23%        3%
45-59      7%       24%       36%       29%        4%
60+       12%       32%       31%       21%        4%


If the election for U.S. Senate were held today,  for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Mark Begich, the Democrat, and Ted Stevens, the Republican?

         Begich    Stevens   Undecided

All       47%       45%        8%

Men       43%       50%        7%
Women     51%       40%        9%

Dem       83%        7%       10%
Rep       13%       81%        6%
Ind       53%       38%        9%

18-29     53%       39%        8%
30-44     43%       47%       10%
45-59     49%       45%        6%
60+       43%       49%        8%

Anch      49%       43%        8%
Cen/oth   40%       55%        5%
Fair/Jun  48%       43%        9%


Do you approve  or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as President?

         Approve   Disapprove

All       37%       63%

Men       40%       60%
Women     34%       66%

Dem        5%       95%
Rep       72%       28%
Ind       28%       72%

18-29     32%       68%
30-44     40%       60%
45-59     35%       65%
60+       41%       59%


If the election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choices were between Barack Obama, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

         McCain    Obama     Undecided

All       51%       41%        8%

Men       54%       39%        7%
Women     48%       43%        9%

Dem       10%       86%        4%
Rep       82%        8%       10%
Ind       48%       43%        9%

18-29     42%       50%        8%
30-44     56%       34%       10%
45-59     48%       47%        5%
60+       58%       33%        9%

Anch      51%       40%        9%
Cen/Oth   56%       38%        6%
Fair/Jun  49%       43%        8%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Jul 18, 2008 at 09:31 AM PDT.

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