OK

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 9/30-10/01. Likely voters. MoE  5%

Boccieri (D) 48
Schuring (R) 38

Wow. Boccieri leads among men and women, among all age brackets, and has a 13-point lead among independents to go with his comfortable edge among Democrats.

Boccieri far outstrips Obama's performance in OH-16 at the moment; Obama merits a three-point edge over McCain, 49% to 46%. Not that that's bad, not by a long shot; Bush won by nine points in 2000 and eight points in 2004.

Boccieri - a veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, State Senator, and former semiprofessional baseball player - has proven to be a terrific candidate, and this lead appears to be for real; SurveyUSA has pegged the race as 49% for Boccieri, 41% for Schuring.

Driehaus' race is a pure tossup, but this one leans Boccieri's way.

On the web:
John Boccieri for Congress

OH-16 CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT POLL – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
This survey was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland. A total of 400 likely voters in the Sixteenth Congressional District were interviewed by telephone between September 29 and October 1, 2008.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the district. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by district.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 5% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  188 (47%)
Women                212 (53%)

Democrats            176 (44%)
Republicans          148 (37%)
Independents/Other    76 (19%)

18-29                 73 (18%)
30-44                119 (30%)
45-59                125 (31%)
60+                   83 (21%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kirk Schuring? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 11%         30%         21%         10%         28%

MEN                 13%         32%         20%          9%         26%
WOMEN                9%         28%         22%         11%         30%

DEMOCRATS            6%         18%         30%         15%         31%
REPUBLICANS         17%         43%         11%          7%         22%
INDEPENDENTS        10%         29%         21%          9%         31%

18-29                8%         28%         23%         12%         29%
30-44               15%         34%         18%          7%         26%
45-59               10%         29%         22%         10%         29%
60+                 10%         29%         22%         11%         28%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Boccieri? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         31%         18%          7%         31%

MEN                 11%         29%         21%          8%         31%
WOMEN               15%         33%         15%          6%         31%

DEMOCRATS           18%         42%          8%          4%         28%
REPUBLICANS          7%         18%         31%         11%         33%
INDEPENDENTS        14%         33%         15%          6%         32%

18-29               15%         33%         16%          5%         31%
30-44               10%         27%         22%         10%         31%
45-59               13%         32%         17%          7%         31%
60+                 13%         32%         17%          6%         32%


QUESTION: If the election for Congress were held today would you vote for John Boccieri the Democrat or Kirk Schuring the Republican?

                   BOCCIERI    SCHURING    OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         38%          4%         10%

MEN                 46%         41%          5%          8%
WOMEN               50%         35%          3%         12%

DEMOCRATS           82%          6%          3%          9%
REPUBLICANS          7%         76%          5%         12%
OTHER               50%         37%          6%          7%

18-29               49%         36%          3%         12%
30-44               45%         42%          5%          8%
45-59               50%         37%          5%          8%
60+                 49%         37%          3%         11%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         46%          3%          2%

MEN                 45%         51%          3%          1%
WOMEN               53%         41%          3%          3%

DEMOCRATS           82%         12%          3%          3%
REPUBLICANS         10%         87%          2%          1%
OTHER               51%         43%          3%          3%

18-29               51%         44%          2%          3%
30-44               46%         51%          2%          1%
45-59               50%         45%          4%          1%
60+                 49%         44%          4%          3%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 10:15 AM PDT.

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