OK

Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 10/14-15. Likely voters. MoE 4% (9/8-10 likely voters.)

President

McCain (R) 44 (55)
Obama (D) 46 (38)

Senate

Dole (R) 45 (48)
Hagan (D) 49 (42)

Governor (see update)

Perdue (D) 48 (42)
McCrory (R) 43 (47)

The last time we visited North Carolina, Republicans were enjoying their convention bounce. That has obviously faded for two out of the three big races this year, as Obama and Hagan enjoy narrow leads. Hagan, looks best of all, just flirting with breaking 50 percent while Dole falls well short. I'm going to enjoy seeing Liddy go down.

The Democratic-held open seat governor's race, on the other hand, continues to look poor. All other polling in this race looks tighter, so this is hopefully a bit of an outlier, rather than trend. R2K has consistently given Perdue some of her worst numbers, so let's hope that's the case.

On the web:
Kay Hagan for Senate
Bev Perdue for Governor

Update: The crosstabs in the governor's race are screwed up. So either Perdue and McCrory's names were reversed (and she leads), or the data is mismatched. I'm checking in with R2K to try and figure out what the actual results are. I suspect it's the former.

We may have all good news in this poll after all.

Update II: Good news! Perdue is up five. R2K accidentally flipped the names in the crosstabs.

NORTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS – OCTOBER 2008
                                                                 
The Research 2000 North Carolina Poll was conducted from October 14 through October 15, 2008. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.



                   SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  283 (48%)
Women                317 (52%)

Democrats            264 (44%)
Republicans          210 (35%)
Independents/Other   126 (21%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                204 (34%)
45-59                192 (32%)
60+                   96 (16%)

White                414 (69%)
Black                144 (24%)
Other                 42 (7%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Kay Hagan? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

AL                  19%         36%         24%         11%         10%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 55%         35%         10%

MEN                 52%         39%          9%
WOMEN               58%         31%         11%

DEMOCRATS           76%         20%          4%
REPUBLICANS         27%         54%         19%
INDEPENDENTS        58%         34%          8%

18-29               58%         32%         10%
30-44               52%         39%          9%
45-59               55%         35%         10%
60+                 55%         34%         11%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Elizabeth Dole? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

AL                  16%         34%         26%         17%          7%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 50%         43%          7%

MEN                 54%         41%          5%
WOMEN               46%         45%          9%

DEMOCRATS           31%         65%          4%
REPUBLICANS         76%         19%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        48%         38%         14%

18-29               46%         46%          8%
30-44               54%         40%          6%
45-59               52%         43%          5%
60+                 48%         44%          8%


QUESTION: If the election for U.S. Senate were held today would you vote for Kay Hagan the Democrat or Elizabeth Dole the Republican?

                   HAGAN       DOLE        OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 49%         45%          3%          3%

MEN                 46%         49%          4%          1%
WOMEN               52%         41%          2%          5%

DEMOCRATS           82%         12%          2%          4%
REPUBLICANS         10%         85%          3%          2%
INDEPENDENTS        46%         45%          4%          5%

WHITE               32%         63%          4%          1%
BLACK               88%          6%         -            6%
OTHER               79%          7%         -           14%

18-29               53%         41%          3%          3%
30-44               46%         48%          4%          2%
45-59               48%         46%          3%          3%
60+                 50%         45%          2%          3%

RALEIGH/DUR         53%         40%          5%          2%
CHARLOTTE           45%         49%          2%          4%
GREENSBORO/WS       43%         51%          2%          4%


QUESTION: If the election for Governor were held today would you vote for Beverly Perdue the Democrat or Pat McCrory the Republican?

                   PERDUE     MCCRORY      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 48%         43%          3%          6%

MEN                 45%         47%          4%          4%
WOMEN               51%         39%          2%          8%

DEMOCRATS           80%         10%          3%          7%
REPUBLICANS         10%         84%          2%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        44%         43%          4%          9%

WHITE               31%         60%          4%          5%
BLACK               87%          5%         -            8%
OTHER               77%          7%         -           16%

18-29               52%         39%          3%          6%
30-44               45%         46%          4%          5%
45-59               47%         44%          3%          6%
60+                 49%         43%          2%          6%

RALEIGH/DUR         52%         39%          5%          4%
CHARLOTTE           44%         47%          2%          7%
GREENSBORO/WS       42%         49%          2%          7%


QUESTION: If the election for President were held today would you vote for the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden the Republican ticket of John McCain and Sarah Palin or another candidate?

                   OBAMA       MCCAIN      OTHER       UNDECIDED  

ALL                 46%         44%          3%          7%

MEN                 42%         49%          3%          6%
WOMEN               50%         39%          3%          8%

DEMOCRATS           76%         14%          2%          8%
REPUBLICANS          8%         84%          3%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        47%         40%          5%          8%

WHITE               27%         62%          4%          7%
BLACK               91%          3%         -            6%
OTHER               80%          7%         -           13%

18-29               55%         36%          2%          7%
30-44               42%         49%          4%          5%
45-59               44%         47%          4%          5%
60+                 43%         44%          1%         12%

RALEIGH/DUR         51%         38%          4%          7%
CHARLOTTE           42%         49%          2%          7%
GREENSBORO/WS       41%         51%          2%          6%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Oct 18, 2008 at 10:40 AM PDT.

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