With two weeks remaining until Election Day 2008, today was a day that has to be considered, at worst, a neutral day for Team Obama. And neutral might be granting McCain a greater verdict than deserved. When you are nearly seven points down on average, you need to do more than tread water. And the jury is out on whether he even accomplished THAT.
In all, we see our SEVEN (yes, we added another one) tracking polls either holding steady or stretching out an Obama lead. Meanwhile, we get a fairly ridiculous number from our one quasi-tracking poll, plus four national numbers that tell very different stories about the electorate.
Finally, we see 40 polls out of individual states and districts, painting a reasonably stable picture of the electorate, by and large. Which is good news when you are favored.
You know a poll must be pretty good for Team Obama when there is not one, but two, of the recommended diaries at D-Kos on the subject. Indeed, as you must already know, PEW goes into the field and finds Obama with a fourteen point lead among likely voters. The internal demographics, quite shockingly, look good. Even, if anything, a bit prejudicial in McCain's favor (the same AA turnout as 2004? Really?).
There were three other national polls out today, including one from everyone's favorite pirate pollster. ARG has McCain picking up one point from last week, down only four points (49-45). However, and this is really striking, they are also the only pollsters showing a dramatic difference between Dems for Obama and GOPers for McCain. They still have Obama claiming just 82% of Democratic voters. That strikes me as awfully low. Meanwhile, two other respected national pollsters come out today with pretty good news for the Blue Team. Ipsos/McClatchy has the race at Obama +8 (50-42), with McCain gaining just a point. Meanwhile, Obama DOUBLES his lead in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, with Obama now scoring 52% to McCain's 42%.
The quasi-tracker gives us the Drudge poll of the day. GWU/Battleground, which has easily been the most erratic poll in the field, now has Obama leading McCain by a single point, 48-47. One week ago, they had Obama leading by 13. Prediction: tomorrow, they will have Obama leading by something around 4-6 points. Their numbers really seem to bounce around a lot, as many as five points in a day.
As for the "regular" daily tracking polls, our "six pack" of trackers needs a new name, since ABC has decided to join the party. The "magnificent seven," perhaps??
At any rate, all seven either held steady or gave an increased lead to Barack Obama. The positive movers were, for the second straight day, Zogby (which went from O+6 to O+8), as well as Gallup (which went from O+9 to O+10) and Hotline/Diageo (from O+5 to 0+6). Rasmussen (O+4) is steady, but I am going to call it now and say that I expect Obama to move up a point or two on this tracker tomorrow. Same for Research 2000, which held steady today at Obama +8. ABC/WaPo came out this afternoon, with absolutely no movement (Obama +9). Lastly, IBD/TIPP is technically unmoved (Obama +6), but it did move up fractionally (it is one of the few pollsters to show decimals).
Pew: Obama 53%, McCain 39%
NBC/Wall Street Journal: Obama 52%, McCain 42%
Ipsos/McClatchy Newspapers: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
ARG: Obama 49%, McCain 45%
GWU/Battleground: Obama 48%, McCain 47%
Gallup: Obama 52%, McCain 42%
ABC/Washington Post: Obama 53%, McCain 44%
Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
Zogby: Obama 50%, McCain 42%
IBD/TIPP: Obama 47%, McCain 41%
Hotline/Diageo: Obama 47%, McCain 41%
Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%
A mixed bag of state polls today, although the balance of them remain positive for Team Obama. Some of the battleground states appear to be tightening up (Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina seem very close today), while Obama partisans will love the result today out of Indiana--a narrow lead for the Democrat. Other positive results include abject blowouts in two states thought to be competitive a scant month ago--Washington and New Jersey.
In all, fifteen states received new data today. Using our momentum tracker (this set of polls vs. the Pollster.com trend composite), we see that Obama beats the spread in eight of those states (and very nearly nine of them). McCain beats the spread in seven of those states.
COLORADO--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 51%, McCain 46% (McCain)
FLORIDA--PPP: Obama 48%, McCain 47% (McCain)
ILLINOIS--Chicago Tribune: Obama 56%, McCain 32%, Others 3% (Obama)
INDIANA--PPP: Obama 48%, McCain 46% (Obama)
KENTUCKY--SurveyUSA: McCain 54%, Obama 41%, Others 3% (Obama)
NEVADA--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (McCain)
NEW JERSEY #1--Quinnipiac: Obama 59%, McCain 36% (Obama)
NEW JERSEY #2--Gannett: Obama 55%, McCain 38%, Others 1%
NORTH CAROLINA #1--InsiderAdvantage: Obama 49%, McCain 48% (McCain)
NORTH CAROLINA #2--Civitas: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, Others 2%
NORTH CAROLINA #3--SurveyUSA: Obama 47%, McCain 47%, Others 3%
OKLAHOMA #1--SurveyUSA: McCain 59%, Obama 35%, Others 3% (Obama)
OKLAHOMA #2--TV Poll: McCain 64%, Obama 32%
PENNSYLVANIA--Muhlenberg: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, Others 2% (McCain)
SOUTH CAROLINA--Rasmussen: McCain 54%, Obama 43% (Obama)
VERMONT--Macro International: Obama 51%, McCain 29% (McCain)
WASHINGTON--Elway: Obama 55%, McCain 36%, Others 1% (Obama)
WEST VIRGINIA--Rasmussen: McCain 52%, Obama 43% (Obama)
WYOMING #1--SurveyUSA: McCain 58%, Obama 37%, Others 3% (McCain)
WYOMING #2--Mason Dixon: McCain 58%, Obama 32%, Others 2%
Quite a bit of downticket polling today, including a pair of races in the Oklahoma Senate race that suggests that this is still on the cusp of turning into a race. We also get differing results on the North Carolina governor's race, and a shocker--could Bill Sali be going down hard in ID-01??
And, of course, the already diaried SUSA poll out of Kentucky. Mitch McConnell dead even with two weeks to go. Absolutely stunning.
FL-18--Lake (D): Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) 48%, Annette Taddeo (D) 41%
ID-01--SurveyUSA: Walt Minnick (D) 51%, Rep. Bill Sali (R) 45%
IN-GOV--PPP: Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) 57%, Jill Long Thompson (D) 36%
KY-SEN--SurveyUSA: Bruce Lunsford (D) 48%, Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) 48%
MN-SEN--Star Tribune: Al Franken (D) 39%, Sen. Norm Coleman (R) 36%, Dean Barkley (I) 18%
NC-GOV #1--PPP: Beverly Perdue (D) 48%, Pat McCrory (R) 44%, Others 4%
NC-GOV #2--SurveyUSA: Pat McCrory (R) 46%, Beverly Perdue (D) 43%, Others 7%
NC-SEN #1--Civitas: Kay Hagan (D) 44%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 41%, Others 4%
NC-SEN #2--SurveyUSA: Kay Hagan (D) 46%, Sen. Liddy Dole (R) 45%, Others 5%
NH-GOV--Research 2000: Gov. John Lynch (D) 60%, Joe Kenney (R) 34%
NH-SEN--Research 2000: Jeanne Shaheen (D) 50%, Sen. John Sununu (R) 43%
NH-01--Research 2000: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) 48%, Jeb Bradley (R) 43%
NH-02--Research 2000: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) 49%, Jennifer Horn (R) 35%
NJ-SEN--Quinnipiac: Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D) 55%, Dick Zimmer (R) 33%
OK-SEN #1--SurveyUSA: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 51%, Andrew Rice (D) 39%, Others 7%
OK-SEN #2--TV Poll: Sen. Jim Inhofe (R) 53%, Andrew Rice (D) 40%, Others 4%
SD-SEN--Mason Dixon: Sen. Tim Johnson (D) 57%, Joel Dykstra (R) 34%
TN-SEN--Rasmussen: Sen. Lamar Alexander (R) 62%, Bob Tuke (D) 34%
WV-GOV--Rasmussen: Gov. Joe Manchin (D) 71%, Joel Weeks (R) 21%
WY-AL--SurveyUSA: Cynthia Lummis (R) 50%, Gary Trauner (D) 44%, Others 4%
As expected, the volume is increasing. If all of the days are as good as this one, I'll be more than happy to keep up with it.
Two weeks to go. As always, rec this if you think it is worth your while, and if you have heard of polls I have missed, feel free to let me know in the comments.