OK

Infochimps.org is doing a great job of showing where the Newspaper Endorsements currently stand.

Current Endorsement Numbers
For Obama: 233 Total Endorsements with 21.7 Million in Circulation
For McCain: 105 Total Endorsements with 7.2 Million in Circulation
Abstaining: 20 Newspapers with 1.7 Million in Circulation
Have Not Come Out Yet: 307 Newspapers with 9.3 Million in Circulation

So Obama has locked up the Circulation Numbers.

More On The Flip

Out of the 233 newspapers that have endorsed Obama, 187 of them endorsed Kerry in 2004. Overall 46 newspapers switched from Bush in 2004 to Obama. On the other hand, McCain only received 4 newspapers that endorsed Kerry in 2004 that now endorse him.

It is these "switch" endorsements that can have a big impact in an election according to a study by Brown University. When the New York Times endorsed Obama, that is not going to sway too many people, because the New York Times is "Liberal". The same thing goes for the McCain endorsement in the Dallas Morning News which is seen a "Conservative". This is why the Obama endorsement in the Chicago Tribune was such a big thing, because they are a "Conservative" paper.

However, how big of an impact is the Chicago Tribune going to be in Illinois, a safe Blue State, going to truly be. I say - not that much. I agree that it is an important endorsement, but will probably not have much impact in the overall election. It will give Obama a couple votes across the country, but we to have a gig impact it would have been better if we had a newspaper like the Tribune (Conservative) in a Red State or Toss Up State to have a big impact.

Do those exist? Yes, they do and here are some of them.

Texas
It is going to be interesting to see how much the impact of newspaper endorsements of these Texas newspapers will have in Red State Texas. I don't think it will turn Texas blue. However, if Texas is close on election night, it could be due to these "Conservative" newspaper endorsements.

Houston Chronicle - 494K Circulation
Fort Worth Star Telegram - 207K Circulation
Austin American Statesman - 170K Circulation
Total Circulation - 871,000+

Ohio
Could a couple of key "Conservative" newspaper endorsements in Ohio lock up the state for Obama? Obama's "liberal" newspapers endorsements have a circulation of 728,000, while McCain's "conservative" endorsements have a circulation of 536,000. Could these papers tip the vote to Obama.

Repository (Canton) - 120K Circulation
Vindicator (Youngstown) - 88K Circulation
News Journal (Mansfield) - 28K Circulation
Times Reporter (New Philadelphia) - 22K Circulation
Hamilton Journal News - 19K Circulation
Total Circulation - 277,000+

Florida
Like Ohio, could a couple key Florida newspaper endorsements tip Florida to Obama? Obama's "liberal" endorsements have a reach of 1,398,000 readers versus McCain's "conservative" endorsements with a reach of 234,000. So there is already some domination, but the key would be these newspapers that "switched".

Naples Daily News - 66K Circulation
Lakeland Ledger - 66K Circulation
Total Circulation - 132,000+

Remember that the 2000 election was settled in Florida by 537 votes!

So there is where we currently stand on newspaper endorsements and where I think a couple key newspaper endorsements may be very important.

Originally posted to Six Degrees of Aaron on Fri Oct 31, 2008 at 08:37 AM PDT.

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