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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 1/12-14. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

Leahy (D) 58
Douglas (R) 36

Republican Gov. Jim Douglas is decently popular at 52-41, which he'd have to be to continue winning gubernatorial races in the most Democratic state in the union. Yet even he is no match for Sen. Patrick Leahy, who has an extremely high 63-33 favorability rating.

Not that this comes as any surprise, but Leahy is golden for 2010. Douglas will stick to the governor's mansion.

Full crosstabs below the fold.

VERMONT POLL RESULTS – JANUARY 2009
                                                                 
The Research 2000 Vermont Poll was conducted from January 12 through January 14, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party affiliation.


SAMPLE FIGURES:

Men                  282 (47%)
Women                318 (53%)

Democrats            216 (36%)
Republicans          144 (24%)
Independents/Other   240 (40%)

18-29                108 (18%)
30-44                180 (30%)
45-59                198 (33%)
60+                  114 (19%)


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Jim Douglas? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 13%         39%         26%         15%          7%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 52%         41%          7%

MEN                 57%         38%          5%
WOMEN               48%         44%          8%

DEMOCRATS           39%         58%          3%
REPUBLICANS         77%         14%          9%
INDEPENDENTS        49%         41%         10%

18-29               48%         44%          8%
30-44               56%         39%          5%
45-59               52%         40%          8%
60+                 50%         42%          8%


QUESTION: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Patrick Leahy? (If favorable or unfavorable ask if it is very or not):

                 VERY FAV       FAV        UNFAV     VERY UNFAV    NO OPINION

ALL                 21%         42%         21%         12%          4%

                   FAV         UNFAV       NO OPINION

ALL                 63%         33%          4%

MEN                 58%         38%          4%
WOMEN               67%         29%          4%

DEMOCRATS           81%         16%          3%
REPUBLICANS         36%         60%          4%
INDEPENDENTS        63%         32%          5%

18-29               67%         28%          5%
30-44               57%         36%          7%
45-59               65%         33%          2%
60+                 66%         32%          2%


QUESTION: If 2010 election for U.S. Senate were held today for whom would you vote for if the choices were between Patrick Leahy the Democrat and Jim Douglas the Republican?

                   LEAHY      DOUGLAS     UNDECIDED  

ALL                 58%         36%          6%

MEN                 53%         42%          5%
WOMEN               62%         31%          7%

DEMOCRATS           84%         10%          6%
REPUBLICANS         16%         79%          5%
INDEPENDENTS        60%         33%          7%

18-29               62%         31%          7%
30-44               54%         40%          6%
45-59               58%         36%          6%
60+                 59%         35%          6%

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Jan 16, 2009 at 08:30 AM PST.

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