OK

Tomorrow we will talk about Virginia, but today we return again to Oregon. When a strong democrat sound for run, habitually i include a poll with this name. For governor of Oregon sound the name of John Kitzhaber. The former governor is the strongest democrat in Oregon without office now.

Yesterday we talk about the options of former republican senator Gordon Smith for this race, and here we think he have low chance of win, but in this moment i think is early for let G Smith out of this race. Until G Smith not tell he will not run, i think democratic party from Oregon must be cautious and must be ready for run again against G Smith.

I remember some links where we can try see what feel the people about the options of G Smith (appear in first and in third):

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.

And of course, yesterday diary.

And i remember too, the list of possible candidates:

  1. John Albert Kitzhaber: WA OR 1947 Governor of Oregon 95-03.
  1. Peter Anthony DeFazio: MA OR 1947 USHRep 87- . Lost for Senate 96.
  1. David Wu: TAI OR 1955 USHRep 99- .
  1. Earl Blumenauer: OR 1948 USHRep 96- . Lost for Mayor of Portland 92.
  1. Kurt Schrader: CT OR 1951 USHRep 09- . Lost for OR House 94.
  1. Les AuCoin: OR 1942 USHRep 75-93. Lost for Senate 92.
  1. Michael Joseph Kopetski: OR 1949. USHRep 91-95. Lost for House 82 and 88.
  1. Kate Brown: SPA OR 1960 OR Secretary of State 09- .
  1. Phil Keisling: OR 1955 OR Secretary of State 91-99.
  1. William Bradbury: IL OR 1949 OR Secretary of State 99-09. Lost for Senate 02.
  1. John Richard Kroger: OH OR 1966 OR Attorney General 09- .
  1. Ben Westlund: CA OR 1949 OR State Treasurer 09- . Lost for Governor 06.
  1. Randall Edwards: OR 1961 OR State Treasurer 01-09.
  1. Peter Courtney: PA OR 1943 OR Senate President 03- .
  1. Steven Novick: NJ OR 1963 Lost for Senate 08.

From this list Bradbury is running and sound Kitzhaber, DeFazio, Courtney and Novick, but Hardhat Democrat, from Oregon, and very kindly, tell we DeFazio not is near run.

Well, yesterday we let the poll open to generic democrat candidate, today we look again to Oregon, to J Kitzhaber and their chance of win. I hope this two polls for Oregon let we see what feel the people about the chance of democrats win if republicans run with their best. Im optimist.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All gubernatorial races.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

The states with democratic incumbents what seems more easy for win again are:

NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.

We can see results for these states in next link:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?

More interesting races:

AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 13 votes = 09,231 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 16 votes = 08,750 => Safe Democratic
IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 21 votes = 08,571 => Safe Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 18 votes = 08,333 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 06 votes = 08,056 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 15 votes = 07,889 => Likely Democr
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 32 votes = 07,865 => Likely Democratic
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 11 votes = 07,727 => Likely Democr
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 16 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 17 votes = 07,353 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 22 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 12 votes = 07,083 => Leans Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 33 votes = 06,768 => Leans Democr
NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 21 votes = 06,746 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 06,528 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 30 votes = 05,889 => Leans Democratic
VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,907 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 39 votes = 04,573 => Toss-Up
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up
FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican

And for see about other difficult races for democrats like:

TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
WY-Gov: Open seat. D Freudenthal (D-1950) win in 2006 with 70%.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.

visit next diaries:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.

All the polls are open if you like to vote.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes go up and when end the procedure.

Originally posted to abgin on Wed Jan 21, 2009 at 01:25 AM PST.

Poll

OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ?

38%5 votes
53%7 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
7%1 votes

| 13 votes | Vote | Results

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