OK

The last group of senate races in our serie is the group of long time democratic incumbents. My last diary was about Nevada senate race because seems H Reid can have any problem. For that today get out. Today we will try see if can have sense make more diaries about any others long time democratic incumbent or all they are totally safe.

Today races are:

HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 with 76%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 with 71%.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 with 71%.
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 with 68%.
CT-Sen: Incumbent C Dodd (D- 1944) win in 2004 with 66%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 with 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 with 63%.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 with 62%.
CA-Sen: Incumbent B Boxer (D-1940) win in 2004 with 58%.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 with 56%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 with 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 with 55%.

I will make a diary about the race what make feel more doubts in this group, and with the results we will see if can be interesting continue with more states, or all these incumbents are safe.

In these states, republicans dont have much options of run with competitive candidates. The strongest republicans can be:

- ND governor J Hoeven

- IN governor M Daniels

- CT governor J Rell

- VT governor J Douglas

- HI governor L Lingle

- CA governor A Schwarzenegger

- AR former governor M Huckabee

In this group of republicans the bests polls are for A Schwarzenegger, and are good for democrats (40%-49% losing against B Boxer). L Lingle is the next with (42%-53% losing against D Inouye). J Hoeven (35%-57% losing against B Dorgan) and J Douglas (36%-58% losing against P Leahy) have very bad polls, and we dont know polls for M Daniels, J Rell and M Huckabee. M Daniels come from G W Bush cabinets.

Maybe no-one of this republicans run for senate. Until now no-one of first level republicans tell will run. I think all they can lose against democratic incumbents.

Former governor T Thompson sound for Wisconsin, but come too from G W Bush cabinet and Wisconsin is a blue state.

Any other mid level candidates sound too, but not is sure they run. In Washington Rep. D Reichert and WA Attorney General R McKenna sound for the race with poor polls (D Reichert 40%-53% and R McKenna 39%-55% losing against P Murray). In Wisconsin Rep. P Ryan, and former representative M Green, who lost 2006 gubernatorial elections, can run too. And in Connecticut sound former representative R Simmons, who lost reelection in 2006. Few more in these states.  

For me all these races will be safe, or very near safe for democrats, but maybe the people not think the same about any of these races. All people can let their vote in the poll.

I will remember all the results in our serie until now:

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 with 76%.
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 with 71%.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 with 71%.
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 with 68%.
CT-Sen: Incumbent C Dodd (D- 1944) win in 2004 with 66%.
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 with 65%.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 with 63%.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 with 62%.
CA-Sen: Incumbent B Boxer (D-1940) win in 2004 with 58%.
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 with 56%.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 with 55%.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 with 55%.

IL-Sen: Incumbent R Burris (D-1937). B Obama (D-1961) win in 2004 with 70%.

NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 63 votes = 07,963 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 33 votes = 07,828 => Likely Democratic
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 11 votes = 07,273 => Likely Democr
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 42 votes = 07,143 => Likely Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan ? after 10 votes = 06,833 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 30 votes = 06,333 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 22 votes = 06,288 => Leans Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 36 votes = 05,602 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,101 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 40 votes = 04,875 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican

*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate

And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:

AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

All the polls are open.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.

Originally posted to abgin on Mon Mar 02, 2009 at 09:45 AM PST.

Poll

Who of these democratic incumbents can have more problems for reelection in his home state?

0%0 votes
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7%3 votes
36%15 votes
0%0 votes
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4%2 votes
4%2 votes
4%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
41%17 votes

| 41 votes | Vote | Results

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