Research 2000. 8/9-8/12. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)

If you voted in the 2008 election last November did you vote for or against Proposition 8 which banned same-sex marriage?

For 51
Against 45
Did not vote 4

As you may know the 2010 ballot may feature an initiative which if passed would allow for same-sex marriage in California. If you were voting today on such an initiative would you vote for or against allowing same-sex marriage in California?

For 47
Against 48
Not sure 5

In the first question, "For" is against gay marriage, in the second, it's for it. In short, support for gay marriage is up 2 points, while opposition is down from 51 percent to 48 percent. That's a five point drop. For a ballot initiative that passed by a scant 4.48 points, that turns this effort into a toss-up.

If it happens.

The biggest California gay rights advocacy group on Wednesday said it needed three years to build a coalition to repeal a ban on same-sex marriage in the state, creating a rift in the movement with those who want to go back to the polls next year while anger is hot.

California, the most populous state and often a standard-bearer for social liberalism, is the biggest prize in U.S. culture wars. Its next fight over gay marriage is sure to draw in national organizations, cost $100 million or more, and may affect the next U.S. presidential campaign if it takes place in 2012.

I'm not sure why they need three years to organize. More than likely, they're looking at the more favorable turnout environment with Obama on the ballot in 2012. That, and the age demos make it clear that support will continue to rise on a yearly basis:

        For   Against

18-29    64     32
30-44    46     49
45-59    44     50
60+      37     57

Still, grassroots activists are less eager to delay, and really, this is a fight we can win next year. Indeed, that's what Nate Silver's gay marriage regression model predicts.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Aug 13, 2009 at 03:00 PM PDT.

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