OK

Today is day after elections, and the anniversary of Obama's big victory. Just we know the results, and we have for all. Bad news in governors races and good news in congressional races.

Lose in New Jersey is a hard coup for dems because Corzine was an incumbent (so unpopular) runing for reelection, and democratic party have more for next year. A Bush guy winning in New Jersey, hard to see. The first Lieutenent Governor a republican, and a senator, F Lautemberg, with 85 years old, who need continue until 90 years old.

Virginia tell is not (still) a blue state. They can vote far-right candidates without problem if Dems have not good alternatives. This is the more important lesson about Virginia.

But for the House, republicans, far-right republicans receive a hard coup from NY-23 district, losing the district after destroy D Scozzafava. Last night have "surprises" for all. Sure D Scozzafava get happy with the victory of a democrat after suffer much days.

J Garamendi make good work for win the special election for CA-10 easily. Their district have one vote in the House, like NY-23. Congratulations for J Garamendi.

Surely the fifth major race yesterday was the race for Mayor of New York, and here we can talk about a good work in democratic side. M Bloomberg win but not very easily.

I think W Thompson get in very good position for run next year for statewide office.

My point about yesterdays elections is what dems have not big loses after all. Any loses, not much, less gains, but any important gains. And results in the two gubernatorial races affected by poor democratic candidates. Just when any moderate democrats, and all republicans want talk about congressional democratic agenda (very liberal for they), Democratic Party improve their congressional delegation.

Well, after all that, we can start to think or continue thinking in next year races, it can be good for try improve since now against republicans.

For analize these ranks we need remember next questions:

- We have not polls for all races, they are still few races without polls.

- The polls are not maked at same time. They are any old polls for any races.

- The polls came from different pollsters, any of they strongly pro-republicans.

This rank is a pick for this moment, a pick for today, and with each new poll the ranks change.

Go with the ranks:

RANK FOR SENATE 2010 BY LAST POLLS

November 04, 2009 edition of the rank of senate seats by last polls.

41 Dem senate seats without elections in 2010 (39 Dem + 2 Ind)
42nd OR-Sen R Wyden --------- W Polls ------------- ?
43rd IN-Sen E Bayh ------------ W Polls -------------- ?
44th MD-Sen B Mikulski -------- U Polls -------------- ?
45th NY-Sen C Schumer ------- U Polls -------------- ?
46th VT-Sen P Leahy ----------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** J Douglas
47th WA-Sen P Murray -------- O Polls -(+13 %)-- ** D Reichert
48th HI-Sen D Inouye --------- O Polls -(+12 %)-- ** L Lingle
49th MA-Sen M Coakley ------- +26 % -------------- S Brown
50th CA-Sen B Boxer ----------- +14 % ------------- C Fiorina
51st IL-Sen A Giannoulias ---- +03 % ------------- M Kirk
52nd PA-Sen A Specter -------- +02 % ------------- P Toomey
53rd AR-Sen B Lincoln --------- +02 % ------------- G Baker
54th MO-Sen R Carnahan ---- =00 % -------------- R Blunt
55th DE-Sen B Biden ----------- - 01 % -------------- M Castle
56th OH-Sen L Fisher ---------- - 01 % ------------- R Portman
57th WI-Sen R Feingold ------- - 04 % ------------- T Thompson
58th KY-Sen J Conway -------- - 04 % ------------- T Grayson (- 10 % D Mongiardo Dem)
59th NY-Sen K Gillibrand ------ - 05 % ------------- G Pataki
60th CT-Sen C Dodd ----------- - 05 % ------------- R Simmons

TIE POINT 2009

61st NV-Sen H Reid ------------ - 05 % ------------- S Lowden / D Tarkanian
62nd TX-Sen W White ---------- - 06 % ------------- D Dewhurst / G Abbott
63rd NH-Sen P Hodes ---------- - 07 % ------------- K Ayotte
64th NC-Sen E Marshall ------- - 10 % ------------- R Burr
65th GA-Sen J Marshall -------- - 08 % ------------- J Isakson
66th CO-Sen M Bennet -------- - 09 % ------------- J Norton
67th IA-Sen R Conlin ----------- - 12 % ------------ C Grassley
68th LA-Sen C Melancon ------ - 12 % ------------- D Vitter
69th FL-Sen K Meek ----------- - 15 % -------------- M Rubio (-12% C Christ)
70th ND-Sen B Dorgan -------- - 17 % -------------- J Hoeven
71st AZ-Sen G Giffords -------- - 27 % -------------- J McCain
72nd KS-Sen ** K Sebelius --- O Polls -(+10 %)-- T Tiahrt
73rd AK-Sen ** A Knowles --- O Polls -(- 08 %)-- L Murkowski
74th SD-Sen ** S Herseth-H - O Polls -(- 12 %)-- J Thune
75th OK-Sen ** B Henry ------ O Polls -(- 12 %)-- T Coburn
76th UT-Sen ** J Matheson--- O Polls -(- 23 %)-- R Bennett
77th SC-Sen ? ------------------ W Polls -------------- J DeMint
78th AL-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- R Shelby
79th ID-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- M Crapo
21 Rep senate seats without elections in 2010 (21 Rep)

W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls or will not run after join the cabinet)

And the same rank for gubernatorial races in 2010.

RANK FOR GOVERNORS 2010 BY LAST POLLS

November 04, 2009 edition of the rank for governors by last polls.

07 Dem governors without elections in 2010
08th WY-Gov D Freudenthal - W Polls ------------- ?
09th AR-Gov M Beebe --------- W Polls ------------- ?
10th NM-Gov D Denish -------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** S Pearce / H Wilson
11th MD-Gov M O'Malley ------ O Polls -(+11 %)-- ** R Ehrlich
12th NY-Gov A Cuomo -------- +40 % -------------- R Lazio
13th OR-Gov J Kitzhaber ----- +27 % -------------- A Allen
14th NH-Gov J Lynch ---------- +21 % -------------- J Kimball
15th CA-Gov J Brown ---------- +21 % ------------- M Withman
16th MA-Gov D Patrick -------- +10 % -------------- C Baker
17th HI-Gov M Hannemann -- +10 % -------------- J Aiona (+09% N Abercrombie Dem)
18th AZ-Gov T Goddard ------- +07 % -------------- J Brewer
19th IL-Gov P Quinn ----------- +07 % -------------- W Brady
20th MN-Gov M Dayton -------- O Polls -(- 04 %)-- ** T Pawlenty
21st VT-Gov D Racine --------- W Polls ------------- ?
22nd RI-Sen F Caprio ---------- W Polls ------------- ?
23rd OH-Gov T Strickland ----- +01 % ------------- J Kasich
24th FL-Gov A Sink ------------- +01 % ------------- W McCollum
25th NV-Gov O Goodman ----- =00 % ------------- B Sandoval
26th SC-Gov J Rex -------------- =00 % ------------- H McNaster
27th WI-Gov T Barrett --------- - 01 % ------------- S Walker
28th GA-Gov R Barnes --------- - 02 % ------------- J Oxendine

TIE POINT 2009 (yesterdays changes will come in 2010)

29th ME-Gov E Mitchell -------- - 03 % -------------- P Mills
30th PA-Gov J Wagner -------- - 04 % -------------- T Corbett
31st AL-Gov A Davis ---------- - 04 % -------------- B Byrne
32nd IA-Gov C Culver --------- - 05 % -------------- T Branstad
33rd CO-Gov W Ritter --------- - 05 % -------------- S McInnis
34th CT-Gov S Bysiewicz ----- - 06 % -------------- J Rell (? N Lamont Dem)
35th MI-Gov J Cherry ---------- - 15 % -------------- M Cox
OK
TX
TN
KS
AK
UT
SD
ID
NE

6 Rep governors without elections in 2010

W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls or will not run after join the cabinet)

A priori senate seats come without elections since 2004 and gubernatorial seats since 2006. 2004 was more favourable year for republicans than 2006 and would be likely Democratic Party have better results in senate races than in gubernatorial races, but the results of last polls tell not that.

Like we can see, the last usable polls tell us, Democratic Party have better chance of keep result for governor than for senate. Im not sure about the origin of this difference. I see more interest from pro-republican pollsters in create unfavourable opinion about democratic chance of win some senate races. They work more senate races than gubernatorial races. In last days we see too the interest of any moderate democrats in see bad results for Democratic Party this year, and maybe any pollster aligned with they run this way.

A second reason helping that can be a better recruitment for gubernatorial races than for senate races. I think the democratic recruitment is going better for governor than for senate.

"FAILURES" OF RECRUITMENT IN DEMOCRATIC SIDE FOR 2010 ELECTIONS

We can understand like "failures of recruitment" have not the best candidate electorally for each race winnable, giving more importance to senate races over gubernatorial races. Any times that make the risk of win the race affected increase.

For Senate

MA-Sen J Kennedy
IL-Sen L Madigan
NY-Sen A Cuomo (running? for Governor)
NH-Sen J Lynch (running? for Governor)
OH-Sen T Strickland (running for Governor)

For Governor

VT-Gov H Dean

Have more politics in the list for senate, with any of they running for governor make we have down IL-Sen, NY-Sen or NH-Sen races in the rank for senate races, and we have up NY-Gov and NH-Gov races in the rank for gubernatorial races.

Few for make in this chapter, but the effects of these "failures", are here. They are not much "failures". About the recruitment only wait last confirmations. I think, if all they finally run, the recruitment in democratic side will be so good. For the ranks, i assume all the are in.

WAITING FOR OFFICIAL CONFIRMATIONS OF CANDIDATES RUNNING FOR OFFICE IN 2010

For Senate

IN-Sen E Bayh
WA-Sen P Murray
DE-Sen J Biden

For Governor

WY-Gov D Freudenthal
AR-Gov M Beebe
MD-Gov M O'Malley
NY-Gov A Cuomo
NH-Gov J Lynch
AZ-Gov T Goddard
RI-Gov F Caprio
NV-Gov O Goodman and/or maybe others
WI-Gov T Barrett

The recruitment for NV-Gov race is so bad until now, dems need improve.

I wish call to all they to enter definitively in their race. More failures in the recruitment would became hard troubles for Democratic Party.

We must not forget, what we have in the rank VT-Gov and RI-Gov in Lean Dem position without know usable polls about. And would be good know polls for more republicans in MN-Gov race. Would be very interesting for can improve this overview have new polls for these three races what seems favourables for dems.

In these two ranks i assume too any strong republicans finally will not run because they have dangerous numbers in polls and few chance of win. We have still a group of possibly high level republican candidates what have high risk of be defeated by running Dems.
They are:

HIGH LEVEL REPUBLICANS WITHOUT CONFIRM STILL THEY WILL NOT RUN IN 2010

IL-Sen +?? S Preston
NH-Gov +13 J Sununu (+13% for J Lynch over J Sununu)
NV-Gov +12 J Gibbons
WA-Sen +12 D Reichert
HI-Sen +12 L Lingle
MD-Gov +11 R Ehrlich
NY-Gov +10 R Giuliani
OR-Gov +08 G Walden
AZ-Gov +07 J Brewer
MN-Gov +06 N Coleman

I think in this group only incunbents (J Gibbons and J Brewer) can bid keep their offices in 2010, and J Gibbons without chance of win again trailing in the primaries of GOP. For that only the polls for Brewer are included in the ranks, but is not sure she run.

We have a second group of high level republicans who can have any chance of win if work very hard. But the majority of they (J Sununu for NH-Sen, Tom Ridge for PA-Sen, T Pawlenty for MN-Gov, surely J Doublas for VT-Gov) are lefting the races in 2010.

In this second group we have doubt with T Thompson (a Bush's Cabinets man) for WI-Sen, G Pataki for NY-Sen and J Rell for CT-Gov. These three republicans will be importants until they let clear what will make. Would be important put presure on they for run not. If they finally run not, and i think they are likely out, these races would be so easy for dems after R Giuliani left NY-Sen race (we are really lucky for have not R Giuliani running for senate). But maybe not all end here with they. Maybe T Thompson run for WI-Gov and J Rell for CT-Sen, where they can have better chance and where they would be dangerous. I glad Ned Lamont enter in CT-Gov race today, that put presure on J Rell for left CT-Gov race.

And for end with this second group of high level republicans, until now we have running only M Castle for DE-Sen, R Portman (another Bush's Cabinets man) for OH-Sen, and T Branstad for IA-Gov. They must be first level tarjets for dems.

In the ranks, we can try see what can be the battleground races and states. Is not easy define still the battleground races and states. They are very much what seems so close still.

The first problems what appear for define it are the last confirmations about who is running in democratic side, the last confirmations about who will be out in republican side, and the last polls for the races what can be favourables for Democratic Party. I talk about that in this diary.

Later, we need study each race, their polls, and each race can break by its way.

Originally posted to abgin on Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 11:53 PM PST.

Poll

Vote for the race more difficult for democrats in this group.

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| 28 votes | Vote | Results

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