OK

The elections are 11 months away, so I am going to start this series again, updating my earlier ones.

Colorado has 7 representatives: 5 Democrats and 2 Republicans.  The only seat that might be in danger is Markey's in CO-04 and Perlmutter's CO-07 (both are D)
Filing deadline May 27

Connecticut has 5 representative, all Democrats
Filing deadline May 25
Delaware has 1 representative, a Republican, and its a potential gain for the Democrats.
Filing deadline July 30

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
=========================================================================
District: CO-01
Location This oddly shaped district includes metro Denver, southern suburbs like Glendale, south to Sheridan and Cherry Hills Village, and northeast in a stair step pattern map
Cook PVI D+21
Representative Diana DeGette (D)
VoteView rank 93/447
First elected  1996
2008 margin 72-24 over George Lilly
2006 margin 80-20 (against a Green)
2004 margin 73-25
Obama margin 74-24
Bush margin 2004 31-68
Current opponents Michael Deming
Demographics 30% Latino (49th place)
Assessment Safe.  Degette has raised $213K and spent $230K, no info on Deming

District: CO-02
Location Boulder, and points west, in the Rockies.  Also the exurbs of Denver map
Cook PVI  D +11
Representative Jared Polis (D)
VoteView rank 187.5/447
First elected  2008
2008 margin 62-34 over Scott Starin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin NA
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Stephen Bailey (R) and an independent
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Polis won easily in 2008, should be safe. Polis has raised $169K and spent $116K.  No info on the others

District: CO-03
Location Western Colorado (bordering UT), and east along the southern edge (bordering NM), includes Durango and Pueblo and Aspen map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative John Salazar (D)
VoteView rank 207/447
First elected  2004
2008 margin 61-39 over Wayne Wolf
2006 margin 62-37
2004 margin 51-47
Obama margin 47-50
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Martin Beeson, Bob McConnell, Ray Scott, Scott Tipton, Doug Thompson
Demographics Relatively rural (39%, 95th place) few Blacks (0.7%, 23rd least) or Asians (0.5%, rank NA) but 21.5% Latino (69th most)
Assessment This is a Republican district, but Salazar, a moderate Democrat, seems safe.  It'd be nice to have a more progressive rep, but better a blue dog than a red Repub.  Salazar has raised nearly half a million, and spent $233K.  Beeson and McConnell have each raised less than $10K

District: CO-04
Location Shaped like a backwards F, this is eastern CO (bordering KS and NE) and moves a bit west to Fort Collins (bordering WY) and the northwestern suburbs of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Betsey Markey (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 56-44 over Marilyn Musgrave
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents  Tom Lucero, Cory Gardner, Diggs Brown, Dean Madere are all confirmed, and others may run, too.
Demographics 23rd fewest Blacks (0.7%)
Assessment This is a Republican district; Musgrave was an awful person; this could be hard fought. Markey, though, has raised almost a million, and spent $220K, giving her a lot of cash on hand.  Gardner has raised $395K (fairly impressive for a challenger) and spent $121K.  Lucero has raised less, no info on the others.

District: CO-05
Location Central CO, including Colorado Springs map
Cook PVI R + 14
Representative Doug Lamborn (R)
VoteView rank 439.5/447
First elected  2006
2008 margin 60-37 over Hal Bidlack
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 40-59
Bush margin 2004 66-33
Current opponents None declared.  Possible primary challenge
Demographics More veterans than all but 4 districts, and the 33rd most Republican district.
Assessment A long shot; Lamborn has raised $100K and spent about half that.  

District: CO-06
Location Exurbs of Denver, and a large area south and east of Denver map
Cook PVI R + 8
Representative Mike Coffman (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 60-40 over Hank Eng
2006 margin 59-40
2004 margin 59-39
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 60-39
Current opponents
John Flerlage (nothing at this site)
Assessment This is a Republican district; if Coffman runs, it's a longshot.  Coffman has raised $300K and spent $125K.  Flerlage has raise $35K and spent $18K.

District: CO-07
Location More of suburban Denver, and a long strip eastward map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Ed Perlmutter (D)
VoteView rank 203.5/447
First elected  2006
2008 margin 63-37 over John Lerew
2006 margin 55-42
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004 48-51
Current opponents Brian Campbell, Ryan Frazier, Michale Deming, Mike Sheely and Lang Sias
Demographics Not unusual in what I track
Assessment This could be competitive - there's a reason all those Republicans are running in the primary.  Still, Obama won easily, and Perlmutter has raised $666K and spent $300K; the only Repub. who has raised much is Frazier, who has raised $213K and spent $94

District: CT-01
Location Shaped like a backwards C, including Hartford and suburbs, running north to tha border of MA, and looping south and then west to almost form a circle map
Cook PVI D + 13
Representative John Larson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 119.5/447
First elected  1998
2008 margin 71-26 over Joe Visconti
2006 margin 74-26
2004 margin 73-27
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 39-60
Current opponents None declared
Demographics Not unusual on things I track
Assessment Safe.  Larson has raised nearly a million, and spent $800K

District: CT-02
Location Eastern CT, bordering RI, MA and Long Island Sound, including Storrs and New London map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Joe Courtney (D)
VoteView rank 137/447
First elected  2006
2008 margin 65-32 over Sean Sullivan
2006 margin 83 votes
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 59-40
Bush margin 2004  44-54
Current opponents Matthew Daly and Daria Novak
Demographics 31st fewest people in poverty (5.8%)
Assessment One close race, one easy victory.  I won't say absolutely "safe" but it looks good.  Novak's website is like a joke (see the Wiki for a link), with no  issues and some pix of her at a tea party. Daly has a more professional website, but he's a wingnut, not suited to the district. Courtney has raised $600K and sent $219.  Daly has raised about $50K, Novak has raised less than $10K.

District:CT-03
Location New Haven and areas around it map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Rosa DeLauro
VoteView rank 93/447
First elected  1990
2008 margin 77-20 over Bo Itshaky
2006 margin 76-22
2004 margin 72-25
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 42-56
Current opponents Itshaky is running again, as are Jerry Labriola and Peggy Rogers.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. DeLauro has raised $419K and spent slightly more; no info on opponents.

District: CT-04
Location NYC suburbs - Stamford, Darien, Norwalk, Bridgeport, bordering NY and Long Island Sound map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Jim Himes (D)
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 51-48 over Chris Shays
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 60-40
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents Rob Kane, Will Gregory, Dan Debicella, Rob Russo, Rob Merkle and Enrique Torres.
Demographics 30th richest district (median income = $67K)
Assessment Himes won a close one over the incumbent Shays; how safe this is probably depends on the opponent; the Republicans first choice was John McKinney, but he is not running.  Himes has raised $1.4 million, and spent $301K.  Debicella has raised $100K and spent little; the other Republicans have raised little.

District: CT-05
Location Western CT, bordering NY and MA, but going inland to New Britain and Meriden map
Cook PVI D + 2
Representative Chris Murphy (D)
VoteView rank 142/447
First elected  2006
2008 margin 59-39 over David Capiello
2006 margin 54-44
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 56-42
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Justin Bernier, Daniel Carter, Kie Westby, Bill Evans, Mark Greenberg, Sam Caliguri
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Probably safe.  Murphy has raised almost $1 million and spent $330K; Caliguri has raised $300K and spent $200; Bernier has raised $190K and spent $50K.  The others have raised little.

District: DE-AL
Location Delaware.  
Cook PVI D + 7
Representative Mike Castle (R) Retiring to run for senate
VoteView rank NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 62-37
Bush margin 2004 46-53
Current opponents John Carney and Scott Spencer; neither website has much on the issues.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment With Castle out, this is a prime pickup opportunity  In fact, Crisitunity at SSP ranks it the most vulnerable seat held by the Repubs.  No fund raising info, for some reason.

Originally posted to plf515 on Thu Jan 07, 2010 at 12:56 PM PST.

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