OK

The elections are 11 months away, so I am going to start this series again, updating my earlier ones.

FL has 25 representatives: 15 R and 10 D
GA has 13 representatives, 8 R and 5 D , seems vulnerable
HI has 2 representatives, both D, both safe
ID has 2 representatives, 1 D and 1 R

Filing deadlines:
FL: 4/30
GA: 4/30
HI: 7/20
ID: 3/19

Possibly Vulnerable
FL-08 (now D)
FL-10 (now R)
FL-22 (now D - probably safe)
GA-08 (now D)
GA-12 (now D)
ID-01 (now D)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from AOL
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
=========================================================================
District: FL-01
Location The westernmost part of the panhandle, bordering AL, the Gulf of Mexico and including Pensacola map
Representative Jeff Miller (R)
VoteView ranking 429
First elected  2001
2008 margin 70-30 over Jim Bryan
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin 77-22
Obama margin 32-67
Bush margin 2004 72-29
Current opponents Jim Bryan is running again, he looks like a good guy, but this is a tough district for Democrats. There's also a primary challenger.
Demographics Most veterans of any district (21.7%), and the 13th  most Republican district per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot, but Miller has so far raised only $144K and spent $95K, and hasn't formally announced.  No info on Bryan.

District: FL-02
Location The middle of the panhandle, bordering AL, GA and the Gulf of Mexico, and including Tallahassee map
Representative Allen Boyd (D)
VoteView ranking 205
First elected  1996
2008 margin 62-38 over Mike Mulligan
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin 62-38
Obama margin 45-54
Bush margin 2004 54-44
Current opponents There is  a primary challenge from Al Lawson daily kos diary.  On the Republican side, there's a primary between Eddie Hendry, Eddie Ortiz, Carl Meece, Charlie Ranson, and Steve Southerland.
Demographics 90th poorest district (median income = $35K), 60th most veterans (15.3%)
Assessment This part of FL is more like Alabama or Georgia than it is like Miami; Tallahasse (which is in the eastern part of this district) is 484 miles from Miami and 228 from Atlanta.  Boyd has shown he can win; most Democrats could not.  Boyd has raised $850K and spent $290K.  None of the Repubs nor his challenger have raised much.

District: FL-03
Location The 'joint' where the panhandle meets the main part of the state, including (through some gerrymandering) both parts of Jacksonville and Gainesville.  This district has been the subject of lots of contoversy - it borders the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th and 24th.  Here:

District          %Black       %Obama
03                  49.3          73
04                  13.5          38  
05                   4.5          43
06                  11.9          43
07                   8.8          46  
24                   6.3          49

and the borders of the 3rd are pretty tortured. map
Representative Corrine Brown (D)
VoteView ranking 173.5
First elected  1992
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 73-26
Bush margin 2004 35-65
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Jacob Hoeschst, Mike Yost, James Gilman, and John Annarumma are in a primary to face Brown.
Demographics 21st poorest district (median income = $30K), 41st most Blacks (49.3%)
Assessment Safe.  No funding info on Brown, for some reason.  

District: FL-04
Location The eastern part of the panhandle, from Tallahassee suburbs to the Atlantic, bordering GA map
Representative Ander Crenshaw (R)
First elected  2000
2008 margin 65-35 over Jim McGovern
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 38-61
Bush margin 2004 69-31
Current opponents No confirmed Democrats.  There is a primary challenge.
Demographics 30th most veterans (17.1%); 33rd most Republican district
Assessment Long shot, even if someone runs. Crenshaw has raised $239K and spent $169K.

District: FL-05
Location On the Gulf coast, just south of the panhandle map
Representative Ginny Brown-Waite (R)
VoteView ranking 334
First elected  2002
2008 margin 61-39 over John Russell
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 66-34
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 58-41
Current opponents At least 3 Democrats: Thomas Doolan; Jim Picillo (site much improved from a few months ago), and David Werder, a perennial candidate, but definitely odd.  There is also a primary challenge.
Demographics 12th most veterans (21.3%)
Assessment Long shot. Brown-Waite has raised $215K and spent $72K.  None of the Dems have raised much.

District: FL-06
Location A boomerang shaped district in the middle of north Florida map
Representative Cliff Stearns (R)
VoteView ranking 392
First elected 1988
2008 margin 61-39 over Tim Cunha
2006 margin 60-40
2004 margin 64-36
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents There's a primary, and then Cunha is running again (no website yet)
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.3%)
Assessment Long shot. Stearns has raised $280K and spent $87K.  No info on Cunha.

District: FL-07
Location Atlantic coast of northern FL, from north of St. Augustine to Daytona Beach  map
Representative John Mica (R)
VoteView ranking 367
First elected  1992
2008 margin 62-38 over Faye Armitage
2006 margin 63-37
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 46-53
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Heather Beaven, possibly Faye Armitage.
Demographics 15th most veterans (17.6%)
Assessment Long shot.  Mica has raised $273K and spent $125K.  Beaven has raised little

District:FL-08
Location More or less the middle of FL, including Orlando map
Representative Alan Grayson (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 52-48 over Ric Keller
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 53-47
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Todd Long, Albert Kerr, William Collins, Daniel Fanelli, Patricia Sullivan, Armando Gutierrez, Jr., Kevin Butler, Bruce O'Donoghue, and maybe others all are battliing to go against Grayson.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This is a swing district, going for Bush twice before going for Obama; it's far from safe, but Grayson did just oust Keller.  Crisitunity at Swing State rates this the 20th most vulnerable seat held by the Democrats.  Grayson is, to put it mildly, a polarizing figure; a man who tells the truth about things.  So, Republicans hate him.  He's raised $647K and spent $175K.  No info on any of the Republicans.

District: FL-09
Location A weirdly shaped district (Oh Gerry! Gerry!) it runs along the Gulf Coast, circles around the 10th CD, and continues, plus it runs east into Central FL, then south - it's shaped sort of like the number 5, or more like a backwards Z rotated 90 degrees. map
Representative Gus Bilirakis (R)
VoteView ranking 294
First elected  2006
2008 margin 63-36 over Bill Mitchell
2006 margin 56-44
2004 margin NA (but it was his father who held the seat)
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents No confirmed Democrats, but there is a primary challenge.
Demographics 18th most veterans (17.2%)
Assessment Long shot.  Bilirakis has raised $413K and spent $170K

District: FL-10
Location The Gulf Coast, near Tampa Bay (across the Bay from Tampa, north of St. Pete), but excluding a narrow strip that is FL-09. map
Representative Bill Young (R) Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 289
First elected  1970
2008 margin 61-39 over Bob Hackworth
2006 margin 66-34
2004 margin 69-31
Obama margin 51-47
Bush margin 2004 51-49
Current opponents If Young runs there is a primary challenge and then Charlie Justice.
Demographics 13th most veterans (18.2%)
Assessment Young is gradually getting vulnerable.  If we get some breaks, it's possible we could win here; still, Hackworth lost to Young in 2008.  If Young retires, it's a new ballgame, he's been in congress a long time and he's nearing 80 ... Young has raised an unimpressive $61K and spent almost double that.  Justice has raised $163K and spent $62.

District: FL-11
Location Tampa and St. Petersburg map
Representative Kathy Castor Not confirmed
VoteView ranking 98.5
First elected  2006
2008 margin 70-30 over Eddie Adams
2006 margin 70-30
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 66-33
Bush margin 2004 41-58
Current opponents Scott Keller, Eddie Adams,  Steven Sandford, Tony Buntyn, Tom Castellano, .
Demographics 55th most Blacks (27.4%)
Assessment Probably safe, unless Castor retires to run for Senate (increasingly unlikely).  Castor has raised $285K and spent $150K. None of the Republicans have raised much.

District: FL-12
Location Interior Florida, east of Tampa Bay map
Representative Adam Putnam (R) Quitting to run for statewide office
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 58-42
Current opponents Several Republicans are running, more are thinking about it (see the wiki; confirmed Democrats: Lori Edwards (website is clearly a work in progress, needs issues pages and so on), Doug Tudor, and Randy Edwards.
Demographics 23rd most veterans (17%)
Assessment This is fairly vulnerable.  Crisitunity at Swing State rates in the 9th most vulnerable seat that was held by Republicans.  Of the Republicans, only Dennis Ross has raised much: $381K and spent $126K; Lori Edwards has raised $141K and spent $64K.  No other Democrat has raised much.

District: FL-13
Location Gulf coast, from Bradenton to Englewood, interior to Arcadia map
Representative Vern Buchanan (R)
VoteView ranking 292
First elected  2006
2008 margin 56-38 over Christine Jennings
2006 margin 369 votes out of 237,000
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 56-43
Current opponents : The only confirmed candidate is James Golden.
Demographics 9th most veterans (19.2%)
Assessment Buchanan is vulnerable, if a good candidate runs; so far, though, Buchanan has raised over a million and spent about $400K; Golden has raised little.

District: FL-14
Location Gulf coast, including Naples and Ft. Myers map
Representative Connie Mack (R)
VoteView ranking 398
First elected 2004
2008 margin 59-25 over Robert Neeld
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 68-32
Obama margin 42-57
Bush margin 2004 62-38
Current opponents Robert Neeld is running again (site is just a placeholder), as is James Roach
Demographics 6th most veterans (19.8%)
Assessment Neeld has failed three times, long shot.  Mack has raised $331K and spent nearly all.  Roach has raised little, no info on Neeld.

District: FL-15
Location Atlantic coast, from Cocoa to Vero Beach map
Representative Bill Posey (R)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 53-42 over Stephen Blythe
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 48-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents Jon Bull (no web site) and Shannon Roberts (no site)
Demographics 8th most veterans (19.4%)
Assessment This might be vulnerable, with the right candidate, but neither of the people running seem to have it together.  Posey has raised $390K and spent about half.  No info on either Democrat.

District: FL-16
Location An oddly shaped district, it goes from the Gulf to the Atlantic; it's narrow at the Gulf (just about Port Charlotte and nothing else), widens in the middle of the state, swings around Lake Okeechobee, then narrows, then widens again at the Atlantic running from Ft. Pierce to Jupiter, then jogging inland to Wellington map
Representative Tom Rooney (R)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin  60-40 over Tim Mahoney
2006 margin 50-48
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents Chris Craft
Demographics 11th most veterans (18.9%)
Assessment Vulnerable, but we need a good candidate.  Rooney has raised $445K and spent $175K; Craft has raised $60K and spent little.

District: FL-17
Location Just off the Atlantic (by a mile or so) including North Miami Beach, North Miami, and Hollywood map
Representative Kendrick Meek (D) Retiring to run for Senate
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 87-12
Bush margin 2004 17-83
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents About a dozen Democrats seem to be running or considering running (see the WIKI.
Demographics 20th most Blacks (55.2%) and very few veterans (7.2%). 29th poorest district (median income = $30K).  The most Democratic district in the South
Assessment Whichever Democrat wins the primary will win the general.  This is one of the most Democratic districts in the country, and Obama got more here than in all but 12 CDs.

District: FL-18
Location Miami and a narrow strip along the Atlantic north and south of there map
Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)
VoteView ranking 258
First elected  1989
2008 margin 58-42 over Annette Tadeo
2006 margin 62-38
2004 margin 65-35
Obama margin 51-49
Bush margin 2004 54-46
Current opponents None confirmed.
Demographics 16th most Latinos (62.7%)
Assessment Several southern FL seats have gone from solidly Republican to vulnerable in the last decade; partly this is the danger of gerrymandering, partly it's because the Cuban population is changing.  I thought this one would be closer in 2008, but it's still possible; still, no one is running.  Ros-Lehtinen has raised $493K and spent $220K.

District: FL-19
Location Slightly off the Atlantic from near West Palm Beach to near Pompano Beach map
Representative None.  Robert Wexler (D) resigned to work on peace in the middle east. There will be a primary on Feb 2 and a special election on Apr. 13.
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 34-66
Current opponents Democrats: Ben Graber, Jose Ruiz, Josue Larose (no site, unclear if D or R), Ted Deutch (no site). Republicans: Ed Lynch, Curt Price, Joe Budd,
Demographics 28th most veterans (16.6%)
Assessment  This should be safe for the Democrats, but special elections are funny things

District: FL-20
Location Another weirdly shaped district.  What is it shaped like? Well, part of it is like a number 7, with the top running from the Atlantic west to Weston, and the bottom on the Atlantic. Then, atop the 7, it goes back east to the Atlantic again then north a little... ohh... go look at the map
Representative Debbie Wasserman Schulz (D)
VoteView ranking 83
First elected  2004 (D)
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unoppsed
2004 margin 70-30
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 36-64
Current opponents Either Brian Reilly or Dennis Lamb or Robert Lowry
Demographics Not unusual on what I track, but one of the highest concentrations of Jews of any district.
Assessment Safe. Wasserman Schulz has raised almost half a million and spent all of it; Lowry has raised little.  No info on other Repubs

District: FL-21
Location This one is shaped like a ?.  Folks, to appreciate southern FL districting, you really have to look at a map.  Gerry would be proud of these guys, but the Republicans may have overdone it, as they now have several vulnerable seats. map
Representative Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)
VoteView ranking 281.5
First elected  1992
2008 margin 58-42 over Raul Martinez
2006 margin 59-41
2004 margin 73-27 (against a Libertarian)
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Current opponents William Sanchez.  I didn't find a website, but here is a Facebook page
Demographics 8th most Latinos (69.7%)
Assessment Vulnerable with the right opponent, I thought this would be closer in 2008.  Diaz-Balart has raised $224K and spent half that; no info on Sanchez.

District: FL-22
Location One of the strangest shaped districts in the country. Go look. It's south Florida along the Atlantic....more or less. map
Representative Ron Klein (D)
VoteView ranking 203.5
First elected  2006
2008 margin 55-45 over Alan West
2006 margin 51-47
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 52-48
Bush margin 2004 48-52
Current opponents There's a primary and then Allen West is running again, as is David Brady.
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment  Not totally safe, but Klein beat West pretty easily in 2008.  Klein has raised just over a million, and spent about half that; West has raised about half a million (a lot for a challenger) and spent $324K.  Bears watching.

District: FL-23
Location The eastern and southern coasts of Lake Okeechobee map
Representative Alcee Hastings (D)
VoteView ranking 57.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin 82-18 over Marion Thorpe
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 83-17
Bush margin 2004 24-76
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents  Bernard Sansariq
Demographics 43rd fewest Whites (29.4%), 23rd most Blacks (51.2%), 41st poorest (median income = $31K)
Assessment Safe.  Hastings has raised $247K and spent most.  No info on Sansariq.

District: FL-24
Location Atlantic coast, towards the north. map
Representative Suzanne Kosmas (D)
VoteView ranking NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents There's a primary, then Sandy Addams, Ken Miller, Jim Heinzelman, Karen Deibel or Tom Garcia.
Demographics 21st most veterans (17.1%)
Assessment  As a freshman in a swing district, Kosmas is somewhat vulnerable.  Kosmas has raised $911K and spent $208K.  Of the Republicans, only Deibel has raised much.

District: FL-25
Location Southern end of Florida map
Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R)
VoteView ranking 281.5
First elected  2002
2008 margin 53-47 over Joe Garcia
2006 margin 58-42
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 49-50
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Luis Rivera (looks a little loony from his website). Diaz-Balart has raised $275K and spent $102K. No info on Rivera.
Demographics 17th most Latinos (62.4%), 16th fewest veterans (6%)
Assessment Vulnerable to the right opponent.

District: GA-01
Location Southeastern GA, bordering FL and the Atlantic, including Valdosta and Hinesville map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative Jack Kingston (R)
VoteView rank 433
First elected  1992
2008 margin 67-33 over Bill Gillespie
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 36-63
Bush margin 2004 66-34
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics 63rd most Blacks (24.9%) and 54th most veterans (15.3%)
Assessment Long shot. Kingston has raised $232K and spent $185K

District: GA-02
Location Southwestern GA, bordering FL and AL and including Columbus map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative Sanford Bishop (D)
VoteView rank 180
First elected  1992
2008 margin 69-31 over Lee Farrell
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 54-45
Bush margin 2004 50-50
Current opponents Lee Ferrell and Mike Keown.
Demographics 23rd poorest district (median income = $30K), 37th most Blacks (47.5%)
Assessment Safe.  Bishop has raised $281K and spent somewhat more; Keown has raised $105K and spent little. No info on Farrell.

District: GA-03
Location Western GA, about in the middle of the state map
Cook PVI R + 19
Representative Lynn Westmoreland (R)
VoteView rank  437
First elected  2004
2008 margin 66-34 over Stephen Camp
2006 margin 68-32
2004 margin 76-24
Obama margin 35-65
Bush margin 2004 70-29
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 18th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Long shot.  Westmoreland has raised $230K and spent $171K.

District: GA-04
Location Eastern and northern suburbs of Atlanta map
Cook PVI D + 24
Representative Hank Johnson (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 45
First elected  2006
2008 margin Unopposed
2006 margin 75-25
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 28-71
Current opponents Lawrence Gause and Liz Carter.
Demographics 31st most Blacks (52.6%)
Assessment Safe.  Johnson, who hasn't formally declared, has raised $149K and spent #124K.  The Republicans have raised little.  

District: GA-05
Location Atlanta and some suburbs map
Cook PVI D + 26
Representative John Lewis (D)
VoteView rank  14
First elected  1986
2008 margin unopposed
2006 margin unopposed
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 80-20
Bush margin 2004 26-74
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 18th most Blacks (55.7%)
Assessment Safe.  Lewis has raised $300K and spent slightly more.  

District: GA-06
Location Northern central GA map
Cook PVI R + 19
Representative Tom Price (R)
VoteView rank  417.5
First elected  2004
2008 margin 69-31 over Bill Jones
2006 margin 72-28
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 34-65
Bush margin 2004 70-29
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 9th wealthiest (median income = $72K), and highest in the South
Assessment Long shot.  Price has raised over $800K and spent $288K

District: GA-07
Location Northern central GA map
Cook PVI R + 16
Representative John Linder (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 424.5
First elected  1992
2008 margin 62-38 over Doug Heckman
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin Unopposed
Obama margin 39-60
Bush margin 2004 70-30
Notes on opponents no money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 37th wealthiest (med income = $60K)
Assessment  Long shot.  Linder may not be running - he has not declared, and has raised only $41K while spending more.  But this is strongly Republican territory

District: GA-08
Location Central GA including Macon and Moultrie map
Cook PVI R + 10
Representative Jim Marshall (D)
VoteView rank 237
First elected  2002
2008 margin 57-43 over Rick Goddard
2006 margin 51-49
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 43-56
Bush margin 2004 61-39
Current opponents Rick Goddard, Ken DeLoach, Angela Hicks, Paul Rish, Valerie Myers, Diane Vann
Demographics 78th most rural (43.4%), 41st most Blacks (32.4%).
Assessment Marshall is a DINO, and I don't use that term lightly.  Is it worth it? I don't really know. Would a more liberal Democrat have a chance in this district?  It partly depends on turnout; but, even with nearly 1 in 3 people being Black, Obama lost here.    Marshall is vulnerable, in any  case.  Marshall has raised only $164K and spent $78K.  None of the Republicans have raised much.

District:  GA-09
Location Northwestern GA, bordering TN, AL, and NC map
Cook PVI R + 28
Representative Nathan Deal (R) Retiring
VoteView rank NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 23-75
Bush margin 2004 77-23
Current opponents Only one confirmed Democrat Mike Freeman and a whole slew of Republicans (see wiki)
Demographics 38th most rural (52.7%), 4th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Whichever Republican wins will surely win in November. No funding info.

District: GA-10
Location The northern part of eastern GA, mostly bordering SC (but also NC) map
Cook PVI R + 15
Representative Paul Broun (R) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 447
First elected  2007
2008 margin 61-39 over Bobby Saxon
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 37-62
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents There's a primary, and then Sandy Untermyer
Demographics 50th most rural (49.6%)
Assessment Long shot.  Although Broun hasn't formally declared, he has raised $850K and spent $745K. No info on Untermyer

District: GA-11
Location Northern part of western GA, bordering AL, including Rome and Marietta map
Cook PVI R + 20
Representative Phil Gingrey (R)
VoteView rank 421
First elected  2002
2008 margin 68-32 over Bud Gammon
2006 margin 71-29
2004 margin 57-43 (there was a redistricting)
Obama margin 33-66
Bush margin 2004 65-35
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 18th most Republican (per Cook PVI)
Assessment Long shot. Gingrey has raised $609K and spent about half.

District: GA-12
Location Eastern GA, bordering SC, including Savannah and Augusta map
Cook PVI D + 1
Representative John Barrow (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 238
First elected  2004
2008 margin 66-34 over John Stone
2006 margin less than 1,000 votes, of 142,000
2004 margin 52-48
Obama margin 55-40
Bush margin 2004 50-49
Current opponents There's a primary.  Then Carl Smith and Jeanne Sawyer, maybe others.
Demographics 30th most Blacks (44.5%) and 33rd most people in poverty (21.9%)
Assessment Vulnerable, but Barrow has raised over $700K and spent $219K.  No info on Republicans, although Wayne Mosley raised a bunch before dropping out. Barrow is among the most conservative Democrats in the House.  His primary opponent looks better facebook page

District: GA-13
Location An oddly shaped district, mostly west of Atlanta map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative David Scott (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank 183
First elected  2002
2008 margin 69-31 over Deborah Honeycutt
2006 margin 69-31
2004 margin unopposed
Obama margin 72-28
Bush margin 2004 40-60
Current opponents Sonja Sleeper
Demographics 30th most Blacks (41%)
Assessment Safe.  Scott has raised $225K and spent most of it.  Sleeper has raised little

District: HI-01
Location Honolulu and immediate environs map
Cook PVI D + 11
Representative Neil Abercrombie (D) Retiring
VoteView rank NA
First elected  NA
2008 margin NA
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 70-28
Bush margin 2004 47-53
Current opponents For the Democrats, Ed Case is definitely running, others are considering (see the wiki). For the Repubs, Charles Djou is confirmed.  
Demographics The most nonWhite, nonLatinos, nonBlacks of any district, HI-01 is 53.6% Asian
Assessment It's open, so not maybe not completely safe, but looks good.  Case and Djou have each raised about $160K and spent relatively little.

District: HI-02
Location All of HI except Honolulu map
Cook PVI D + 14
Representative Mazie Hirono (D)
VoteView rank 45
First elected  2006
2008 margin 76-20 over Roger Evans
2006 margin 61-39
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 73-25
Bush margin 2004 44-56
Current opponents None confirmed
Demographics the second most nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlacks, HI-02 is 28% Asian
Assessment Safe.  Hirono has raised $327K and spent $162K.

District: ID-01
Location Western ID, bordering OR, WA and MT including Boise map
Cook PVI R + 18
Representative Walt Minnick (D) Not confirmed
VoteView rank NA
First elected  2008
2008 margin 51-49 over Bill Sali
2006 margin NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 36-62
Bush margin 2004 30-69
Current opponents Bill Sali, who lost in 2008, is running; so are Vaughn Ward,  Raul Labrador, and Allen Salzberg.  Others may as well.
Demographics Tied for fewest Blacks (0.3%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Our best hope is if Sali wins the primary; this is strongly Republican territory, but Sali is too way out there, even for Idaho.  Probably our most vulnerable seat.  But Minnick has raised an impressive $885K and spent only $249K.  Among the Repubs, only Ward has raised much:  $243K and spent $64K

District: ID-02
Location Eastern ID, bordering MT and WY map
Cook PVI  R + 17
Representative Mike Simpson Not confirmed
VoteView rank 277
First elected  1998
2008 margin 71-20 over Debbie Holmes
2006 margin 62-34
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 36-61
Bush margin 2004 69-30
Notes on opponents In 2006, Jim Hansen raised $160K, to Sampson's $570K
Current opponents None declared, but there's a primary.  Simpson has raised $180K and spent more.
Demographics 11th fewest Blacks (0.5%), 14th most Republican
Assessment Long shot

Originally posted to plf515 on Mon Jan 18, 2010 at 03:15 AM PST.

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