Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 2/8/2010-2/11/2010. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
|PRESIDENT OBAMA||56 (56)||41 (42)||+1|
|PELOSI:||39 (40)||52 (51)||-2|
|REID:||25 (26)||65 (64)||-2|
|McCONNELL:||19 (20)||63 (62)||-2|
|BOEHNER:||19 (20)||61 (62)||0|
|CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:||39 (38)||58 (58)||+1|
|CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:||20 (20)||65 (64)||-1|
|DEMOCRATIC PARTY:||40 (39)||55 (56)||+2|
|REPUBLICAN PARTY:||31 (32)||60 (59)||-2|
Defining the movement in this week's Daily Kos State of the Nation tracking poll is a tricky task. The GOP continues to give back its recent gains, with all the players on the red team either holding steady or losing ground. What was once a seven-point gap in net favorabilities between the Democratic Party and the GOP has doubled in recent weeks, and now stands at a fourteen-point split.
President Obama continues his post-SOTU recovery on the favorability issue, with his current +15 split (56/41) among his best showings in recent months. It has not, it is worth noting, translated to higher job approval scores in other polls. Remember that favorability numbers, which we use in the tracking poll, usually trend a few points higher than job approval. Indeed, the current Pollster averages mark an almost eleven-point difference between favorabilities (where the Pollster average stands at +11) and job approval (where the Pollster average stands at +0.6)
Despite declining numbers for the GOP and incrementally improving numbers for the President, there are also some indicators that should give Democrats pause, as well. Both Congressional leaders take a two-point dive this week, with Harry Reid continuing a sharp and unabated dive that began with his unfortunate "negro dialect" comment several weeks ago. It is also worth noting that there has been no tangible improvement on the voter intensity front. Just 52% of Democrats are either certain or likely to vote, which is what it has basically been since the start of the year. Also, Democrats continue to have just a one-point lead on our variation of the general election ballot, as well (39-38).