Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 5/17/2010-5/20/2010. Registered Voters. MoE 2.8% (Last week's results in parentheses):
|PRESIDENT OBAMA||54 (55)||42 (40)||-3|
|PELOSI:||38 (39)||52 (51)||-2|
|REID:||30 (31)||58 (57)||-2|
|McCONNELL:||25 (26)||60 (61)||0|
|BOEHNER:||23 (23)||58 (56)||-2|
|CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:||38 (40)||57 (56)||-3|
|CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:||24 (24)||65 (64)||-1|
|DEMOCRATIC PARTY:||40 (42)||53 (52)||-3|
|REPUBLICAN PARTY:||31 (32)||62 (63)||0|
Time will tell if it is a blip on the screen or a prolonged reversal of recent fortune, but the dark cloud that hovered over the heads of the American electorate for the end of 2009 and the first few months of 2010 has made a fleeting reappearance in this week's tracking poll.
It falls more on the heads of the Democrats than the GOP (all of the Democratic entities see net favorability declines of 2-3 points), but seven of the nine entities we poll saw at least some level of decline in their net favorabilities this week.
Furthermore, the right track/wrong track metric, after weeks on the rise, took a hit this week. The hit is incremental (from 43% last week to 41% this week), to be sure. But the mini-wave of optimism over the past several weeks was also accomplished a point-at-a-time.
There was also an incremental change in the generic ballot, where the GOP has pulled back into a tie (48-48) with the Democrats. The Dems had pulled into a very narrow lead over the past few weeks, and this week's numbers represent a two point Republican gain over last week.
Of course, one edition of the tracking poll does not make a trend. There was a clear direction to this week's tracking poll, but it is impossible to know yet if this is the sign of another trend developing, or an aberrant single week where a more conservative and pissed-off electorate happened to answer the phone.
Therefore, the big question that emerges from this week is whether this weeks numbers are a temporary blip, or a leading indicator of the resumption of an electoral climate that should worry Democrats everywhere.
In other words, the best way to figure what happened this week is to wait and see what happens next week.