Blanche Lincoln (D) 45 (44)
Bill Halter (D) 49 (47)
Undecided 6 (9)
Favorable/Unfavorable (among Democrats)
Lincoln 56/37 (59/36)
Halter 61/24 (63/21)
There hasn't been much movement in the past week, but what little movement there has been appears to be in Halter's favor. He's now got a four-point lead over Lincoln, virtually identical to his three-point margin in our last poll, but he's approaching the 50% threshold and Blanche Lincoln is running out of undecided voters to persuade.
With the run-off coming up this Tuesday (June 8) and voting preferences pretty much settled, it seems like the biggest question is whether Halter or Lincoln will have a better turnout operation. Much of that depends on the enthusiasm of each candidate's supporters, and if Joe Sestak's campaign in Pennsylvania is any indication, Bill Halter is in pretty good shape -- as long as his supporters demonstrate their enthusiasm at the ballot box.