While PPP's DE-Sen poll brought a little flutter to many a Democratic heart last night, the NH-Sen results offer less thrill.

Public Policy Polling (PDF) 9/11-12. (7/23-25 results (PDF)) MoE 2.9%

Kelly Ayotte 37% (47)
Ovide Lamontagne 30% (8)
Bill Binnie 13% (14)
Jim Bender 12% (6)

As PPP notes, while Ayotte has lost a lot of ground, Lamontagne may not have time to catch her before Tuesday. One explanation of her continuing lead while other establishment candidates have suffered:

If Ayotte survives where many GOP establishment candidates have failed in Senate primaries this year it will be because she managed to be the Tea Party candidate herself. With the third of Republican primary voters who describe themselves as members of that movement she leads Lamontagne 38-37, a contrast to the wallopings folks like Trey Grayson, Sue Lowden, Lisa Murkowski, and likely Mike Castle have received with that group.

But in any case:

“Our general election polling finds little difference between how Ayotte and Lamontagne do against Paul Hodes so it may not matter from an electability standpoint.”

Conventional wisdom has had it that Ayotte would be the most formidable opponent for Hodes; I've always thought that her potential negatives were being underestimated, but there's no question that she has the financial resources to mount a more extensive campaign than Lamontagne.

A Lamontagne win can't be ruled out -- after all, the guy has gone from 8% to 30% in less than two months -- but as of tonight, he's no Christine O'Donnell.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 08:16 AM PDT.

Your Email has been sent.