Despite some worrying poll numbers from West Virginia and Wisconsin today, overall the Senate Snapshot remains virtually identical to yesterday. The lesson is simple: don’t get too bummed, or too excited, about a couple of polls.
Senate Snapshot, September 21st
Senate Outcome Odds Chart
Once again, there is no Rassmussen-free Snapshot tonight, because the overall picture does not change if Rasmussen polls are removed from the picture. Without Rasmussen polls, the most likely outcome is still Democrats with 52 seats. Also, Democrats have a 99%+ chance at control.
Rather than taking your questions about the Senate Snapshot tonight, I’d like to hear your thoughts on what sort of targeting strategy you would employ in response to the current Senate picture. Would you focus on the first five states, Delaware through California, to lock down overall Democratic control? Would you focus on defeating the insurgent tea party candidates in place like Delaware, Nevada, and Kentucky, in an attempt to dampen Republican base enthusiasm after the elections? Would you target the closest states, Washington through New Hampshire? Supporting progressive heroes in California and Wisconsin? Pushing the envelope, and rolling the dice, by targeting the states in the dark red, to try and expand the map?
There are many different ways to approach Senate targeting given the above numbers. I would love to hear your thoughts on which approach is the most appealing.
--Polling is not a conspiracy designed to manipulate your emotions.
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.
--Only campaigns within 11% or less in the snapshot that includes Rasmussen polling are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here. Delaware is listed because of all the hoopla surrounding it.
--Lisa Murkowski’s odds of victory are included in the overall GOP total. Charlie Crist’s odds are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.
--All polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.
--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.