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For the 15th consecutive day, the Senate Snapshot shows a Democratic majority of 52 seats as the most likely outcome, and Republican chances of taking over the chamber hovering around 1%.

Senate competitive campaigns chart


Senate seat outcome chart


Stability has been the hallmark of the Senate Snapshot in 2010. Democrats first dropped to 52 seats way back on February 19th. Since that time, there have been only very brief periods when the snapshot with all polls included wavered from a projection of 52 seats for Democrats.

In fact, only three states--Delaware, Nevada and Wisconsin--have seen a change of more than 15 points in the “current Dem win %” column since late February. Tea party candidates caused the first two.

Bottom line is that there has been remarkably little change in the Senate picture for over seven months now. Not sure what lesson that should teach us, but it is worth noting.

Notes
--Polling is not a conspiracy designed to manipulate your emotions.

--Polling averages don’t suck. They are quite accurate.

Actual Notes
--This is a snapshot, not a forecast. All of the odds presented here are based on if the election were held today. It is not a prediction of future trends.

--Only campaigns within 14% are listed. If a campaign isn't listed here, then it is not currently as close as any of the campaigns listed here.

--Lisa Murkowski’s odds of victory are included in the overall GOP total. Charlie Crist’s odds are split evenly between Democrats and Republicans.

--With few exceptions, all polls used in the averages are taken from Pollster.com.

--A complete description of the methodology behind this snapshot, along with all the research and a FAQ, can be found here.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Mon Sep 27, 2010 at 06:46 PM PDT.

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