OK

Summary:
 NY has 29 congresspeople: 27 D and 2 R;

Possibly vul:
 NY-01 (D)
 NY-13 (D)
 NY-19 (D)
 NY-20 (D)
 NY-23 (D)
 NY-24 (D)
 NY-25 (D)
 NY-29 (D)

Sources:
House vote in 2008 from Wikipedia
VoteView (1 = most liberal, 447 = most conservative)
Race Tracker
Obama vote by CD from Swing State (other stuff there too).
and my previous diaries.
FEC
and Steve Singiser's diaries here on daily Kos (which I checked for about a month).

One note on geography - in NYC, a lot of districts are bizarrely shaped, but this doesn't relate to Dem. vs. Repub., as all of the districts are Democratic, and all but one solidly so.  You have to look at the maps to appreciate them.  They are mostly ethnically based.  NY-12 is Hispanic/Latino, NY-08 is Jewish, etc.

District: NY-01
Location Eastern Long Island map
Cook PVI 0
Representative Timothy Bishop (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2001
2008 margin 58-42 over Lee Zeldin
2006 margin  62-38
2004 margin 56-44
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 49-49
Current opponents Randy Altschuler
Demographics 32nd highest income (median = $62K)
Assessment Interesting race.  Bishop has won easily, but this time he is up against the self-financed Randy Altschuler, who has loaned himself millions and has $113K COH.  Bishop has $600K. Bishop's moderate stance seems better suited to this swing district. A poll has Bishop up 51-39
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: NY-02
Location Central Long Island map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Steve Israel (D)
VoteView 117.5
First elected 2000
2008 margin  66-34 over Frank Stalzer
2006 margin  70-30
2004 margin 67-33
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Current opponents John Gomez (R) and Anthony Tolda (Indep)
Demographics  11th highest income (median = $71K)
Assessment Safe. Israel has $1 million COH, Gomez about $150K.

District: NY-03
Location Most of eastern Nassau County and most southwestern Long Island beach communities map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Peter King (R)
VoteView 271
First elected 1992
2008 margin  64-36 over Graham Long
2006 margin  56-44
2004 margin  63-37
Obama margin 47-52
Bush margin 2004 52-47
Current opponents Howard Kudler
Demographics 12th highest income (median = $71K), 84th fewest Blacks (2.1%)
Assessment Safe.  King has $1.7 million COH, Kudler has little.

District: NY-04
Location Western part of southern Long Island map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Carolyn McCarthy (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 1996
2008 margin  64-36 over Jack Martins
2006 margin  65-35
2004 margin 63-37
Obama margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 55-44
Current opponents Francis Becker
Demographics 20th highest income (median = $67K)
Assessment Safe.  McCarthy has $700K COH, Becker has little.  A Republican poll had McCarthy up 46-45.

District: NY-05
Location Northern part of western Long Island, and part of Queens  map
Cook PVI D + 12
Representative Gary Ackerman (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1983
2008 margin 70-28 over Elizabeth Berney
2006 margin  Unopposed
2004 margin 71-28
Obama margin 63-36
Bush margin 2004 37-63
Current opponents James Milano
Demographics 22nd fewest veterans (6.7%), 7th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (mostly Asians, who are 24.5% of the population)
Assessment Safe. Ackerman has over $800K COH, Berney has little.

District: NY-06
Location Southeastern Queens, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 36
Representative Gregory Meeks (D)
VoteView 69.5
First elected 1998
2008 margin  Unopposed
2006 margin  Unopposed
2004 margin  Unopposed
Obama margin 89-11
Bush margin 2004 15-84
Current opponents Asher Taub
Demographics 17th fewest veterans (6.2%), 5th fewest Whites (12.8%), 12th most Blacks (52.1%), 26th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (including 6.1% multiracial), 6th most Democratic
Assessment Safe. Neither candidate has any COH to speak of.

District: NY-07
Location Queens and Bronx, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 26
Representative Joseph Crowley (D)
VoteView 54
First elected 1998
2008 margin  85-15 over William Britt
2006 margin  84-16
2004 margin 81-19
Obama margin 79-20
Bush margin 2004 74-25
Current opponents Kenneth Reynolds
Demographics 19th fewest veterans (6.4%), 38th fewest Whites (27.6%), 35th most Latinos (39.5%),  28th most  most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (12.8% Asian)
Assessment Safe. Crowley has over $1 million COH, no info on Reynolds.

District: NY-08
Location West side of Manhattan, southern Brooklyn, and a skinny line connecting them map
Cook PVI D + 22
Representative Jerrold Nadler (D)
VoteView 50
First elected 1992
2008 margin  80-20 over Grace Lin
2006 margin  85-14
2004 margin  81-19
Obama margin 74-25
Bush margin 2004 72-27
Current opponents Susan Kone
Demographics 9th fewest veterans (5.1%), 38th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (11% Asian); I don't have the figure, but it also has one of the highest concentrations of Jews.
Assessment Safe. Nadler has over $1 million COH, Kone has little.

District: NY-09
Location Odd bits of Queens and Brooklyn, NYC  map
Cook PVI D + 5
Representative Anthony Weiner (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1998
2008 margin  92-8 over conservative party candidate
2006 margin  Unopposed
2004 margin 71-29
Obama margin 55-44
Bush margin 2004 56-44
Current opponents Robert Turner
Demographics 28th fewest veterans (7.1%), 25th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatinos (14% Asian)
Assessment Safe.  Weiner has about $750K COH, Turner has little.

District: NY-10
Location  A V shaped portion of Brooklyn, NYC  map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative Edolphus Towns (D)
VoteView 28.5
First elected 1982
2008 margin  94-6 over Salvatore Grupico
2006 margin  92-6
2004 margin 91-7
Obama margin 91-9
Bush margin 2004 13-86
Current opponents Diana Muniz
Demographics  27th lowest income (median = $30K), 11th fewest veterans (5.3%), 8th fewest Whites (16.2%), 9th most Blacks (60.2%), 3rd most Democratic
Assessment Safe.  Neither candidate has much COH.

District: NY-11
Location   Central Brooklyn, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 38
Representative Yvette Clarke (D)
VoteView 22
First elected 2006
2008 margin  93-7 over Hugh Carr
2006 margin  90-8
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 90-9
Bush margin 2004 13-86
Current opponents Hugh Carr
Demographics 26th most in poverty (23.2%), 4th fewest veterans (4.1%), 25th fewest Whites (21.4%), 12th most Blacks (58.5%), 5th most Democratic
Assessment Safe.  Neither candidate has much COH.

District: NY-12
Location  Bits of Queens, Manhattan and Brooklyn  map.  NY-12 is, by one measure, the most gerrymandered district in the House.
Cook PVI D + 33
Representative Nydia Velazquez (D)
VoteView 20.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin  89-11 over Alan Romaguera
2006 margin  90-10
2004 margin 86-14
Obama margin 86-13
Bush margin 2004 19-80
Current opponents None
Demographics 19th lowest income (median = $29K), 3rd fewest veterans (4.0%), 25th fewest Whites (23.3%), 24th most Latinos (48.5%), 18th most nonWhite, nonBlack, nonLatino (15.9% Asian).
Assessment No opponent

District: NY-13
Location Staten Island and a bit of Brooklyn, NYC  map
Cook PVI R + 4
Representative Michael McMahon (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin  61-33 over Robert Staniere
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 49-51
Bush margin 2004 55-45
Current opponents Michael Grimm
Demographics   Not unusual on what I track
Assessment This used to be a Republican district, until Fosella got caught driving drunk and committing bigamy.  McMahon has $1.1 million COH,  Grimm about $170K
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Likely D

District: NY-14
Location  East side of Manhattan, and western Queens  map
Cook PVI D + 26
Representative Carolyn Maloney (D)
VoteView 122.5
First elected 1992
2008 margin  79-19 over Robert Heim
2006 margin  84-16
2004 margin  81-19
Obama margin 78-21
Bush margin 2004 74-25
Current opponents Ryan Brumberg
Demographics  15th fewest veterans (6.0%)
Assessment Safe. Maloney has $900 K COH. Brumberg has little.

District: NY-15
Location  Mostly Harlem, NYC, but also bits of Queens map
Cook PVI D + 41
Representative Charlie Rangel (D)
VoteView 109
First elected 1970
2008 margin  87-9 over Ed Daniels
2006 margin  94-6
2004 margin  91-7
Obama margin 93-6
Bush margin 2004 90-9
Current opponents Michel Faulkner.
Demographics 12th lowest income (median = $28K), 3rd most in poverty (30.5%), 6th fewest veterans (4.6%), 9th fewest Whites (16.4%), 37th most Blacks (30.5%), 25th most Latinos (47.9%), 2nd most Democratic
Assessment Safe.  Rangel has $270K COH, Faulkner has little.

District: NY-16
Location South Bronx, NYC map
Cook PVI D + 41
Representative Jose Serrano (D)
VoteView 8.5
First elected 1990
2008 margin  97-3 over Ali Mohamed
2006 margin  95-5
2004 margin  95-5
Obama margin 95-5
Bush margin 2004 89-10
Current opponents Frank Della Valle
Demographics The most Democratic district in the USA; 3% may be the lowest percentage gotten by a major party candidate
Assessment  Safe.  Serrano has little COH, no info on Della Valle

District: NY-17
Location  Northern  Bronx, a bit of Westchester, but mostly Rockland county, the part of NY on the west side of the Hudson  map
Cook PVI D + 18
Representative Elliot Engel (D)
VoteView 83
First elected 1998
2008 margin  79-21 over Robert Goodman
2006 margin  76-24
2004 margin 76-22
Obama margin 72-28
Bush margin 2004 33-67
Current opponents Anthony Mele (R)
Demographics  44th most Blacks (30.4%)
Assessment Safe.  Engel has $290K COH, Kleinhandler has little

District: NY-18
Location Southern Westchester (just north of NYC)  map
Cook PVI D + 9
Representative Nita Lowey (D)
VoteView 28.5
First elected 1988
2008 margin  68-32 over Jim Russell
2006 margin  71-29
2004 margin  70-30
Obama margin 62-38
Bush margin 2004 42-58
Current opponents Jim Russell
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Lowey has $1.3 million COH, Russell has little.

District: NY-19
Location  Northern suburbs and exurbs of NYC, bordering on NJ, a little of PA, and CT  map
Cook PVI R + 3
Representative John Hall (D)
VoteView 142
First elected 2006
2008 margin  58-42 over Kieran Lalor
2006 margin  51-49
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Nan Hayworth (R)
Demographics 24th highest income (median = $64K)
Assessment With two wins under his belt, Hall looks better, but this is a Republican leaning district.  Hall has $400K COH, Hayworth has about the same, but is self-financed.  A recent poll has it even, a slightly older one has Hayworth up by 3, and one before that, even.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: NY-20
Location  Eastern part of northern NY, mostly around Albany  map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Scott Murphy (D)
VoteView NA
First elected 2009
2008 margin  NA
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 51-48
Bush margin 2004 54-45
Current opponents Chris Gibson
Demographics 38th most Whites (93.4%)
Assessment After an extremely close race, this has to be counted as vulnerable.  Murphy has $1. million COH, Gibson about $200K.  A Republican poll has Gibson up 48-45; an older pair of partisan polls has Murphy up by 13 or 4, depending on which party did the polling.
SSP rating: Lean D
My rating: Lean D

District: NY-21
Location Albany, Troy, Schenectady and points west of there  map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Paul Tonko (D)
VoteView 77
First elected 2008
2008 margin  62-35 over James Buhrmaster
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin  NA
Obama margin 58-40
Bush margin 2004 43-55
Current opponents Ted Danz
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe. Tonko has $300K COH, Danz has little.

District: NY-22
Location  If you picture where NY bends to the west, you'll have the 22nd. Borders PA, includes Poughkeepsie (NYC exurb) in the east and Binghamton and Ithaca in the west map
Cook PVI D + 6
Representative Maurice Hinchey (D)
VoteView 17
First elected 1992
2008 margin  66-34 over George Phillips
2006 margin  63-37
2004 margin  71-29
Obama margin 59-39
Bush margin 2004 45-54
Current opponents George Phillips again
Demographics  Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe.  Hinchey has $300K COH, Phillips about $100K. A recent Republican poll has this even.
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Likely D

District: NY-23
Location Northernmost NY, bordering Canada and VT  map
Cook PVI R + 1
Representative Bill Owens (D)
VoteView NA
First elected NA
2008 margin  NA
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin  NA
Obama margin 52-47
Bush margin 2004 51-47
Current opponents Matthew Doheny (R) and Doug Hoffman (C) (although Hoffman appears to have backed out of the race)
Demographics 8th most rural (65.3%),
Assessment Vulnerable.  Bill Owens beat Hoffman in a special election to replace McHugh, but that race also had Dede Scozzafava,  a conservative.  Owens has about $500K COH, but some debt; Hoffman about $200 K, but also has debt. Doheny about the same, but lots of debt.  A poll has Owens up 44-39, with Doug Hoffman getting 5%.  An older, Republican poll had Doheny up by 12, but didn't list Hoffman.
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Lean D

District: NY-24
Location  Rome, Utica, and Geneva, near Lake Ontario  map
Cook PVI R + 2
Representative Michael Arcuri (D)
VoteView 160.5
First elected 2006
2008 margin  51-49 over Richard Hanna
2006 margin  54-45
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 50-48
Bush margin 2004 53-47
Current opponents Richard Hanna again
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Vulnerable.  Arcuri beat Hanna narrowly two years ago, now he's the incumbent, but this is likely to be a worse year for Democrats.  Each has about $400K COH, but Hanna has substantial debt.  A Republican poll had Hanna up 46-43
SSP rating: Tossup
My rating: Tossup

District: NY-25
Location From Lake Ontario east to Syracuse map
Cook PVI D + 3
Representative Dan Maffei (D)
VoteView 263
First elected 2008
2008 margin  55-42 over Dale Sweetland
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin  NA
Obama margin 56-43
Bush margin 2004 48-50
Current opponents Ann Buerkle
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Maffei won his 2008 race pretty easily (after losing a very close one in 2006), and Obama also won pretty easily; not completely safe, but not bad. Maffei has almost $800K COH, Buerkle about $200K.  A recent poll has Maffei up by 12.  An older Republican one had Buerkle up by 1
SSP rating: Likely D
My rating: Safe

District: NY-26
Location  Just south of Lake Ontario, east of Lake Erie map
Cook PVI R + 6
Representative Chris Lee (R)
VoteView 309
First elected 2008
2008 margin  55-40 over Alice Kryzan
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin NA
Obama margin 46-52
Bush margin 2004 55-43
Current opponents Phil Fedele
Demographics  55th most Whites (92.3%)
Assessment Long shot.  Lee won easily two years ago.  Lee has $900K COH, no info on Fedele

District: NY-27
Location South and east of Lake Erie, including Buffalo  map
Cook PVI D + 4
Representative Brian Higgins (D)
VoteView 115.5
First elected 2004
2008 margin  74-23 over Daniel Humiston
2006 margin  79-21
2004 margin  51-49
Obama margin 54-44
Bush margin 2004 45-53
Current opponents Leonard Roberto
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Looks pretty safe.  Higgins has over $750K COH, Roberto has little.

District: NY-28
Location The shores of Lake Ontario, a long, narrow strip, includes Rochester, Niagara Falls, and part of Buffalo  map
Cook PVI D + 15
Representative Louise Slaughter (D)
VoteView 50.5
First elected 1986
2008 margin  78-22 over David Crimmen
2006 margin  73-27
2004 margin  73-25
Obama margin 69-30
Bush margin 2004 36-63
Current opponents Jill Rowland
Demographics  48th lowest income (median = $32K)
Assessment Safe.  Slaughter has $340K COH, Rowland has little

District: NY-29
Location Most of the part of NY that borders PA map
Cook PVI R + 5
Representative Open (Massa resigned)
VoteView NA
First elected 2008
2008 margin 51-49 over Randy Kuhl  
2006 margin  NA
2004 margin  NA
Obama margin 48-50
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Current opponents Tom Reed (R).   Matthew Zeller (D)
Demographics 30th most Whites (92.5%), 51st fewest Latinos (1.4%)
Assessment Reed has $300K COH, Zeller has $90K
SSP rating: Likely R
My rating: Tossup

Originally posted to plf515 on Fri Oct 22, 2010 at 10:36 AM PDT.

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