OK

Look out Republicans & Tea Party nut jobs, the rumors of your electoral victories may have been grossly exaggerated!

As the days pass to November 2nd, anincreasing majority of Democrats who were believed to be disengaged this cycle are showing up to vote early.

I for one don't believe the hype from the panicked Republican spin machine that they are tuning in higher early voting totals.  That is inconsistent with every historical model on the party that I know of.  More importantly, a casual GOOGLE search shows a spike in blog & aggregators stories that claim Republican voting and outpacing of Democrats that fly in the face of the pollsters and the generalized news media.  I don't buy it for one second.  It wreaks of wishful thinking and branding.  Some claims of early voter success sound too targeted, like they are designed to encourage that voting pool to show up because heretofore they are missing in the early totals. 

I think the Republicans, who by the way, have aLOWER approval rating in general than the Democratic Congress are reaping the fruit of the half-assed embrace of the Tea Party.  The only candidates who are getting national press are the ones that are the most EXTREME.  Some are possibly the most extremely ignorant.  Culture wars, "folksy" personalities, and hot-topic hate might appeal to the base, but it turns the moderate Republican and the Republican leaning Independent voter off.  I think they are both suppressing their own vote and motivating the Democrats to show up in force.

When Democrats start to hear mainstream Republicans talking about really out there wacky shit, appearing to be trying to tie in message with the Tea Party candidates, they start to scare the Dems to the core.  Talk of gays choosing to be that way, the elimination of all abortions (even in the case of incest, rape, and molestation),  the basic lack of knowledge of our Constitution, the encouragement of citizens to show up at rallies with assault weapons, the encouragement of citizens to take up arms and exercise their 2nd amendment rights... Against the government(!), the sexual hypocrisy of the NY Governors race, the arrest of journalists at a political event, and the list just keeps growing.  Oh... Let's not forget "you look Asian to me"  and the original moron of the party,rhetorical bimbo -- Sarah Palin.  The collective impression of these people dominating the microphone is that they are speaking for the Republicans, and that in doing so they are showing America something very frightening.  Inasmuch as the Democrats couldn't seem to motivate their base on their own, as it turns out they didn't need to; the Republicans/Tea Party candidates are doing it for them.  And they are doing it better than the Democrat leadership could have ever dreamed of on their own!

Across the nation races are "tightening" that we long ago thought lost.  Toomey in PA is in real trouble as Sestak rallies.  This is about voter motivation.  Toomey is super scary and Pennsylvania knows it, so they are HIGHLY motivated to come out and vote so he doesn't win.  Onorato is now polling in the margin of error as well.  Just a month ago Corbett held a 10 point lead, and today that is gone!  The moderate blue state is standing up to her own values and the Democrats are now pushing the polls to "toss up" from what was just thought to be solid Republican victory in 2010.

I think this trend is gaining steam and the Republicans are terrified that what was rumored to be a take over in 2010 could backfire completely and leave the Democratic Majority in Congress in place.

I was one of the skeptics early on.  I didn't believe that Democrats would vote.

It appears I was wrong.  And I am happy to admit it!

Originally posted to FISG on Thu Oct 21, 2010 at 03:37 PM PDT.

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