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Goal Thermometer Nate Silver currently gives Democrats a 21% chance of keeping control of the House. Pollster.com also gives Democrats a 21% chance. Seems like a consensus to me.

With that in mind, here are three seemingly common things that are less likely than Democrats winning the House in 2010:

  1. First, it’s less likely that your birthday is in either August or September (18%) than it is for Democrats to keep control of the House. However, we all know lots of people born in either August or September.
  2. Second, your odds of rolling doubles in Monopoly, thus winning a second roll or getting you out of jail, are lower (17%) than the odds of Democrats winning the House. But everyone who has ever played Monopoly has rolled doubles many times.
  3. Third, it’s less likely for an NFL team with the ball, and trailing by seven points at the start of the 4th quarter, to win the game (about 12%) than it is for Democrats to keep the House. Still, every football fan, player and announcer knows comebacks like that happen all the time. Two Sundays ago, it even happened twice in one day (here and here). A third, even larger comeback happened on that same day.

Yes, Democrats are behind. However, a 21% chance of victory is far from being defeated.

We are still in this, and there is still time to make a difference. Contribute $5 to keeping the Democratic majorities on Orange to Blue now.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Tue Oct 26, 2010 at 02:50 PM PDT.

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