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This is the latest installment in my look at the individual House races through the composite of the raters' services.  This is an update to my October 15 Diary documenting the collective House race ratings by the professional forecasters and using them to create composite vulnerability rankings.  I also used a comparison of the final ratings and the actual results from 2006 to 2008 to figure odds on a given race with a given score actually flipping.  The methodology is explained in the last post.  As I alluded to in the last post, the migration of these ratings continued to drift in the GOP direction, with an acceleration at the end.  The predictive model therefore forecasts a net loss of 47.311 seats.  This is a tick below what the pundits themselves are forecasting, but 8 more than the GOP needs to flip the chamber.

All is not lost, however.  There are a large number of seats that the raters see as more likely than not to flip that, if the likely voter screens being widely employed--and which form one of the bases of these raings--turn out to be wrong, a slew of these races could be holds, bringing the net loss number back down into the 30s, or even high 20s.  The House will be won or lost on our performance in the 40 Democratic and 1 Republican seats that range from tossup/lean hold to tossup/lean turnover.  If all of the 26 Democratic and 3 Republican seats in even worse shape for the incumbent party flip, the Democrats need to hold further losses under 15.  If you figure the GOP gets 5 seats from lower-down upsets, the Dems would need to win 30 of the 41 tightest races to hold the House.  Tough, but doable.  I tend to agree with Bowers and Politico, who put the odds at between 20-25%.

In sum, there are now 7 D seats ranked as "likely takeover" (all open seats).  The model predicts a net loss of 7.00 from these seats.

Next, there are 19 D and 3 R seats ranked as "lean takeover."  The model predicts a net loss of 15.20 from those seats.

Next, as discussed above, there are 40 D and 1 R seats ranked as "tossup/lean takeover", "tossup", or "tossup/lean hold."  The model predicts a net loss of 19.735 from those seats.

Next, there are 21 D and 5 R seats ranked "lean hold."  The model predicts a net loss of 4.826 from those seats.

Finally, there are 36 D and 9 R seats that are longshot possible upsets.  The model predicts a net loss of 0.54 from those seats.

This totals out to 47.311.  

Here are the seats.  I updated the campaign finance figures with Q3 filings, and added the poll closing times for each race.  All times are Central.

Democratic Seats

Likely R Pickup
1. TN-06 (Overall Rank: 1).  PVI: R+11.  Total Vulnerability Score: 395.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: B.Carter (Raised: $206K; CoH: $35K).  R: D.Black (Raised: $1766K; CoH: $81K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
2. LA-03 (Overall Rank: 2).  PVI: R+10.  Total Vulnerability Score: 395.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: R.Sangisetty (Raised: $771K; CoH: $26K).  R: J.Landry (Raised: $1025K; CoH: $176K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
3. NY-29 (Overall Rank: 3).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 395.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: M.Zeller (Raised: $373K; CoH: $57K).  R: T.Reed (Raised: $1054K; CoH: $302K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
4. IN-08 (Overall Rank: 4).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 380.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: T.Van Haaften (Raised: $706K; CoH: $143K).  R: L.Bucshon (Raised: $918K; CoH: $236K).  Polls close: 5:00:00 PM.
5. AR-02 (Overall Rank: 5).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 380.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: J.Elliott (Raised: $904K; CoH: $46K).  R: T.Griffin (Raised: $1678K; CoH: $616K).  Polls close: 7:30:00 PM.
6. KS-03 (Overall Rank: 6).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 380.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: S.Moore (Raised: $851K; CoH: $11K).  R: K.Yoder (Raised: $1677K; CoH: $211K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
7. TN-08 (Overall Rank: 7).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 380.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Takeover.  D: R.Herron (Raised: $2470K; CoH: $427K).  R: S.Fincher (Raised: $2520K; CoH: $327K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.

Lean R Pickup
8. TX-17 (Overall Rank: 10).  PVI: R+18.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: C.Edwards* (Raised: $3443K; CoH: $1123K).  R: B.Flores (Raised: $2699K; CoH: $107K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
9. CO-04 (Overall Rank: 11).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: B.Markey* (Raised: $3274K; CoH: $164K).  R: C.Gardner (Raised: $2052K; CoH: $166K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
10. FL-24 (Overall Rank: 12).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: S.Kosmas* (Raised: $2372K; CoH: $184K).  R: S.Adams (Raised: $973K; CoH: $290K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
11. PA-03 (Overall Rank: 13).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: K.Dahlkemper* (Raised: $1954K; CoH: $597K).  R: M.Kelly (Raised: $1137K; CoH: $216K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
12. IL-11 (Overall Rank: 14).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: D.Halvorson* (Raised: $2505K; CoH: $371K).  R: A.Kinzinger (Raised: $1589K; CoH: $291K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
13. OH-15 (Overall Rank: 15).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: M.Kilroy* (Raised: $2380K; CoH: $205K).  R: S.Stivers (Raised: $2407K; CoH: $967K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
14. OH-01 (Overall Rank: 16).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: S.Driehaus* (Raised: $1770K; CoH: $230K).  R: S.Chabot (Raised: $1760K; CoH: $337K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
15. FL-02 (Overall Rank: 17).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 315.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: A.Boyd* (Raised: $2496K; CoH: $457K).  R: W.Southerland (Raised: $1064K; CoH: $236K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
16. FL-08 (Overall Rank: 18).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 315.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: A.Grayson* (Raised: $5121K; CoH: $815K).  R: D.Webster (Raised: $1317K; CoH: $340K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
17. NH-01 (Overall Rank: 19).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 315.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: C.Shea-Porter* (Raised: $1442K; CoH: $349K).  R: F.Guinta (Raised: $1306K; CoH: $233K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
18. AZ-01 (Overall Rank: 20).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 300.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: A.Kirkpatrick* (Raised: $1777K; CoH: $208K).  R: P.Gosar (Raised: $865K; CoH: $158K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.
19. WI-08 (Overall Rank: 21).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 300.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: S.Kagen* (Raised: $1636K; CoH: $190K).  R: R.Ribble (Raised: $988K; CoH: $339K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
20. MI-01 (Overall Rank: 23).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 293.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: G.McDowell (Raised: $643K; CoH: $75K).  R: D.Benishek (Raised: $964K; CoH: $208K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
21. WA-03 (Overall Rank: 24).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 293.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: D.Heck (Raised: $1689K; CoH: $42K).  R: J.Herrera (Raised: $1197K; CoH: $405K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
22. MD-01 (Overall Rank: 25).  PVI: R+12.  Total Vulnerability Score: 285.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: F.Kratovil* (Raised: $2357K; CoH: $242K).  R: A.Harris (Raised: $2013K; CoH: $331K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
23. VA-02 (Overall Rank: 26).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 285.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: G.Nye* (Raised: $2147K; CoH: $597K).  R: S.Rigell (Raised: $3710K; CoH: $952K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
24. PA-07 (Overall Rank: 27).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 278.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: B.Lentz (Raised: $1457K; CoH: $368K).  R: P.Meehan (Raised: $2559K; CoH: $683K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
25. VA-05 (Overall Rank: 28).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 278.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: T.Perriello* (Raised: $3383K; CoH: $729K).  R: R.Hurt (Raised: $1899K; CoH: $285K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
26. PA-11 (Overall Rank: 29).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 278.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Takeover.  D: P.Kanjorski* (Raised: $1782K; CoH: $388K).  R: L.Barletta (Raised: $1036K; CoH: $220K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
27. AR-01 (Overall Rank: 30).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 263.  Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover.  D: C.Causey (Raised: $1437K; CoH: $250K).  R: R.Crawford (Raised: $1018K; CoH: $464K).  Polls close: 7:30:00 PM.
28. MS-01 (Overall Rank: 31).  PVI: R+13.  Total Vulnerability Score: 263.  Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover.  D: T.Childers* (Raised: $1678K; CoH: $265K).  R: A.Nunnelee (Raised: $1406K; CoH: $257K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.

Tossup/Lean R Pickup
29. NV-03 (Overall Rank: 32).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 258.  Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean R Takeover.  D: D.Titus* (Raised: $2280K; CoH: $128K).  R: J.Heck (Raised: $1260K; CoH: $324K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.

Tossup
30. GA-08 (Overall Rank: 33).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Marshall* (Raised: $1182K; CoH: $602K).  R: A.Scott (Raised: $828K; CoH: $227K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
31. SC-05 (Overall Rank: 34).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Spratt* (Raised: $1822K; CoH: $786K).  R: M.Mulvaney (Raised: $1326K; CoH: $439K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
32. NM-02 (Overall Rank: 35).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: H.Teague* (Raised: $1948K; CoH: $360K).  R: S.Pearce (Raised: $2174K; CoH: $367K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
33. OH-16 (Overall Rank: 36).  PVI: R+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 250.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Boccieri* (Raised: $1874K; CoH: $522K).  R: J.Renacci (Raised: $2268K; CoH: $116K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
34. WI-07 (Overall Rank: 37).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Lassa (Raised: $968K; CoH: $139K).  R: S.Duffy (Raised: $1620K; CoH: $579K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
35. TN-04 (Overall Rank: 38).  PVI: R+12.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: L.Davis* (Raised: $1306K; CoH: $385K).  R: S.DesJarlais (Raised: $661K; CoH: $4K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
36. ND-AL (Overall Rank: 39).  PVI: R+10.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: E.Pomeroy* (Raised: $2810K; CoH: $569K).  R: R.Berg (Raised: $1814K; CoH: $578K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
37. SD-AL (Overall Rank: 40).  PVI: R+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: S.Herseth Sandlin* (Raised: $1729K; CoH: $225K).  R: K.Noem (Raised: $1962K; CoH: $502K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
38. OH-18 (Overall Rank: 41).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: Z.Space* (Raised: $2466K; CoH: $649K).  R: B.Gibbs (Raised: $947K; CoH: $80K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
39. CO-03 (Overall Rank: 42).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Salazar* (Raised: $1792K; CoH: $446K).  R: S.Tipton (Raised: $974K; CoH: $241K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
40. AZ-05 (Overall Rank: 43).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: H.Mitchell* (Raised: $1994K; CoH: $64K).  R: D.Schweikert (Raised: $1277K; CoH: $184K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.
41. IL-14 (Overall Rank: 44).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Foster* (Raised: $3520K; CoH: $390K).  R: R.Hultgren (Raised: $1294K; CoH: $112K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
42. NY-19 (Overall Rank: 45).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Hall* (Raised: $1848K; CoH: $268K).  R: N.Hayworth (Raised: $1762K; CoH: $266K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
43. NY-20 (Overall Rank: 46).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: S.Murphy* (Raised: $5107K; CoH: $605K).  R: C.Gibson (Raised: $1319K; CoH: $199K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
44. IL-17 (Overall Rank: 47).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: P.Hare* (Raised: $1199K; CoH: $305K).  R: B.Schilling (Raised: $792K; CoH: $116K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
45. PA-08 (Overall Rank: 48).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 243.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: P.Murphy* (Raised: $3757K; CoH: $592K).  R: M.Fitzpatrick (Raised: $1591K; CoH: $493K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
46. WV-01 (Overall Rank: 49).  PVI: R+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: M.Oliverio (Raised: $1241K; CoH: $28K).  R: D.McKinley (Raised: $1451K; CoH: $204K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
47. NH-02 (Overall Rank: 50).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: A.Kuster (Raised: $2041K; CoH: $254K).  R: C.Bass (Raised: $961K; CoH: $200K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
48. PA-10 (Overall Rank: 51).  PVI: R+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Carney* (Raised: $1467K; CoH: $269K).  R: T.Marino (Raised: $550K; CoH: $32K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
49. IN-09 (Overall Rank: 52).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Hill* (Raised: $1931K; CoH: $379K).  R: T.Young (Raised: $1698K; CoH: $148K).  Polls close: 5:00:00 PM.
50. TX-23 (Overall Rank: 53).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Rodriguez* (Raised: $1487K; CoH: $91K).  R: F.Canseco (Raised: $1587K; CoH: $148K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
51. MI-07 (Overall Rank: 54).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: M.Schauer* (Raised: $2947K; CoH: $849K).  R: T.Walberg (Raised: $1375K; CoH: $399K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
52. NY-23 (Overall Rank: 55).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Owens* (Raised: $2609K; CoH: $344K).  R: M.Doheny (Raised: $2670K; CoH: $166K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
53. CA-11 (Overall Rank: 56).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 235.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.McNerney* (Raised: $2562K; CoH: $943K).  R: D.Harmer (Raised: $2524K; CoH: $434K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
54. NJ-03 (Overall Rank: 57).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 228.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: J.Adler* (Raised: $3094K; CoH: $1207K).  R: J.Runyan (Raised: $1268K; CoH: $322K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
55. NC-08 (Overall Rank: 58).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: L.Kissell* (Raised: $979K; CoH: $38K).  R: H.Johnson (Raised: $997K; CoH: $227K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
56. GA-02 (Overall Rank: 59).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: S.Bishop* (Raised: $1264K; CoH: $353K).  R: M.Keown (Raised: $955K; CoH: $177K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
57. FL-22 (Overall Rank: 60).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 220.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: R.Klein* (Raised: $3415K; CoH: $178K).  R: A.West (Raised: $5588K; CoH: $1223K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
58. AL-02 (Overall Rank: 62).  PVI: R+16.  Total Vulnerability Score: 213.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Bright* (Raised: $1336K; CoH: $930K).  R: M.Roby (Raised: $1019K; CoH: $226K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
59. MA-10 (Overall Rank: 63).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 205.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: B.Keating (Raised: $1170K; CoH: $224K).  R: J.Perry (Raised: $949K; CoH: $234K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
60. MS-04 (Overall Rank: 64).  PVI: R+19.  Total Vulnerability Score: 205.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: G.Taylor* (Raised: $675K; CoH: $292K).  R: S.Palazzo (Raised: $658K; CoH: $154K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
61. OH-06 (Overall Rank: 65).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 205.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Wilson* (Raised: $878K; CoH: $324K).  R: B.Johnson (Raised: $500K; CoH: $147K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
62. AZ-08 (Overall Rank: 66).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 205.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: G.Giffords* (Raised: $3152K; CoH: $1021K).  R: J.Kelly (Raised: $1288K; CoH: $94K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.
63. NY-24 (Overall Rank: 67).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 205.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: M.Arcuri* (Raised: $1644K; CoH: $335K).  R: R.Hanna (Raised: $1027K; CoH: $193K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
64. OR-05 (Overall Rank: 68).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 205.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: K.Schrader* (Raised: $1667K; CoH: $124K).  R: S.Bruun (Raised: $965K; CoH: $210K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
65. ID-01 (Overall Rank: 69).  PVI: R+18.  Total Vulnerability Score: 192.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: W.Minnick* (Raised: $2406K; CoH: $373K).  R: R.Labrador (Raised: $603K; CoH: $83K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.

Tossup/Lean D Hold
66. MO-04 (Overall Rank: 70).  PVI: R+14.  Total Vulnerability Score: 185.  Consensus Rating: Tossup/Lean D Hold.  D: I.Skelton* (Raised: $2552K; CoH: $487K).  R: V.Hartzler (Raised: $1134K; CoH: $401K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.

Lean D Hold
67. KY-06 (Overall Rank: 71).  PVI: R+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 175.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: B.Chandler* (Raised: $1470K; CoH: $635K).  R: A.Barr (Raised: $1366K; CoH: $250K).  Polls close: 5:00:00 PM.
68. IN-02 (Overall Rank: 72).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 175.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: J.Donnelly* (Raised: $1580K; CoH: $286K).  R: J.Walorski (Raised: $1149K; CoH: $376K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
69. AZ-07 (Overall Rank: 73).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 175.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: R.Grijalva* (Raised: $870K; CoH: $220K).  R: R.McClung (Raised: $337K; CoH: $184K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.
70. NM-01 (Overall Rank: 74).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 170.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: M.Heinrich* (Raised: $2512K; CoH: $604K).  R: J.Barela (Raised: $1311K; CoH: $430K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
71. NY-01 (Overall Rank: 75).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 162.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: T.Bishop* (Raised: $2282K; CoH: $628K).  R: R.Altschuler (Raised: $3948K; CoH: $113K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
72. PA-12 (Overall Rank: 77).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 155.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: M.Critz* (Raised: $2041K; CoH: $53K).  R: T.Burns (Raised: $2243K; CoH: $283K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
73. VA-11 (Overall Rank: 78).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 155.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: G.Connolly* (Raised: $2215K; CoH: $875K).  R: K.Fimian (Raised: $2361K; CoH: $1076K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
74. WA-02 (Overall Rank: 79).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 155.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: R.Larsen* (Raised: $1757K; CoH: $661K).  R: J.Koster (Raised: $907K; CoH: $72K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
75. CA-20 (Overall Rank: 80).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 155.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: J.Costa* (Raised: $1518K; CoH: $162K).  R: J.Vidak (Raised: $633K; CoH: $482K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
76. VA-09 (Overall Rank: 81).  PVI: R+10.  Total Vulnerability Score: 147.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: R.Boucher* (Raised: $2339K; CoH: $1250K).  R: M.Griffith (Raised: $812K; CoH: $243K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
77. IA-03 (Overall Rank: 82).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 145.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: L.Boswell* (Raised: $1415K; CoH: $155K).  R: B.Zaun (Raised: $570K; CoH: $60K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.
78. NC-07 (Overall Rank: 84).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 132.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: M.McIntyre* (Raised: $1060K; CoH: $308K).  R: I.Pantano (Raised: $945K; CoH: $92K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
79. MN-01 (Overall Rank: 86).  PVI: R+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: T.Walz* (Raised: $1911K; CoH: $566K).  R: R.Demmer (Raised: $677K; CoH: $78K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
80. MI-09 (Overall Rank: 87).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: G.Peters* (Raised: $2986K; CoH: $458K).  R: A.Raczkowski (Raised: $1710K; CoH: $376K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
81. CT-04 (Overall Rank: 88).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: J.Himes* (Raised: $3351K; CoH: $577K).  R: D.Debicella (Raised: $1667K; CoH: $259K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
82. CA-47 (Overall Rank: 89).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: Lo.Sanchez* (Raised: $1768K; CoH: $911K).  R: V.Tran (Raised: $1072K; CoH: $137K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
83. NC-02 (Overall Rank: 90).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 117.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Hold.  D: B.Etheridge* (Raised: $1231K; CoH: $392K).  R: R.Ellmers (Raised: $553K; CoH: $129K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.

Lean/Likely D Hold
84. NY-13 (Overall Rank: 93).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold.  D: M.McMahon* (Raised: $2493K; CoH: $603K).  R: M.Grimm (Raised: $925K; CoH: $25K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
85. CT-05 (Overall Rank: 94).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold.  D: C.Murphy* (Raised: $2704K; CoH: $385K).  R: S.Caliguri (Raised: $1077K; CoH: $150K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
86. WI-03 (Overall Rank: 95).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold.  D: R.Kind* (Raised: $1561K; CoH: $355K).  R: D.Kapanke (Raised: $896K; CoH: $18K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
87. IA-02 (Overall Rank: 96).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely D Hold.  D: D.Loebsack* (Raised: $975K; CoH: $279K).  R: M.Miller-Meeks (Raised: $979K; CoH: $374K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.

Likely D Hold
88. RI-01 (Overall Rank: 97).  PVI: D+14.  Total Vulnerability Score: 105.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: D.Ciccilline (Raised: $1675K; CoH: $206K).  R: J.Loughlin (Raised: $618K; CoH: $114K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
89. NC-11 (Overall Rank: 98).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 95.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: H.Shuler* (Raised: $1166K; CoH: $1250K).  R: J.Miller (Raised: $678K; CoH: $42K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
90. PA-04 (Overall Rank: 99).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 95.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: J.Altmire* (Raised: $2304K; CoH: $598K).  R: K.Rothfus (Raised: $994K; CoH: $131K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
91. NY-25 (Overall Rank: 100).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 95.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: D.Maffei* (Raised: $2742K; CoH: $451K).  R: A.Buerkle (Raised: $552K; CoH: $160K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
92. CO-07 (Overall Rank: 101).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 95.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: E.Perlmutter* (Raised: $2179K; CoH: $188K).  R: R.Frazier (Raised: $1495K; CoH: $73K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
93. IA-01 (Overall Rank: 102).  PVI: D+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 95.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: B.Braley* (Raised: $1661K; CoH: $471K).  R: B.Lange (Raised: $404K; CoH: $170K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.
94. PA-17 (Overall Rank: 103).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: T.Holden* (Raised: $1229K; CoH: $163K).  R: D.Argall (Raised: $320K; CoH: $55K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
95. TX-27 (Overall Rank: 104).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: S.Ortiz* (Raised: $894K; CoH: $145K).  R: B.Farenthold (Raised: $382K; CoH: $41K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
96. KY-03 (Overall Rank: 105).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: J.Yarmuth* (Raised: $1409K; CoH: $535K).  R: T.Lally (Raised: $737K; CoH: $196K).  Polls close: 5:00:00 PM.
97. NY-22 (Overall Rank: 106).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: M.Hinchey* (Raised: $758K; CoH: $79K).  R: G.Phillips (Raised: $384K; CoH: $101K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
98. OH-13 (Overall Rank: 107).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: B.Sutton* (Raised: $1610K; CoH: $307K).  R: T.Ganley (Raised: $8115K; CoH: $268K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
99. MA-04 (Overall Rank: 108).  PVI: D+14.  Total Vulnerability Score: 80.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: B.Frank* (Raised: $3002K; CoH: $650K).  R: S.Bielat (Raised: $1297K; CoH: $463K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
100. MO-03 (Overall Rank: 109).  PVI: D+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 75.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: R.Carnahan* (Raised: $1833K; CoH: $104K).  R: E.Martin (Raised: $1283K; CoH: $207K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
101. WV-03 (Overall Rank: 111).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: N.Rahall* (Raised: $1079K; CoH: $426K).  R: E.Maynard (Raised: $853K; CoH: $219K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
102. MN-08 (Overall Rank: 114).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 60.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: J.Oberstar* (Raised: $1554K; CoH: $514K).  R: C.Cravaack (Raised: $284K; CoH: $116K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
103. IL-08 (Overall Rank: 115).  PVI: R+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: M.Bean* (Raised: $1996K; CoH: $441K).  R: J.Walsh (Raised: $480K; CoH: $4K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
104. CA-18 (Overall Rank: 116).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: D.Cardoza* (Raised: $1079K; CoH: $358K).  R: M.Berryhill (Raised: $871K; CoH: $7K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
105. ME-01 (Overall Rank: 120).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 45.  Consensus Rating: Likely D Hold.  D: C.Pingree* (Raised: $1028K; CoH: $321K).  R: D.Scontras (Raised: $366K; CoH: $59K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.

Other Longshots
106. AR-04 (Overall Rank: 121).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 35.  Consensus Rating: .  D: M.Ross* (Raised: $2115K; CoH: $468K).  R: B.Rankin (Raised: $493K; CoH: $145K).  Polls close: 7:30:00 PM.
107. GA-12 (Overall Rank: 122).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 35.  Consensus Rating: .  D: J.Barrow* (Raised: $1809K; CoH: $338K).  R: R.McKinney (Raised: $208K; CoH: $66K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
108. NJ-12 (Overall Rank: 124).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: R.Holt* (Raised: $2229K; CoH: $876K).  R: S.Sipprelle (Raised: $1542K; CoH: $214K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
109. OR-01 (Overall Rank: 125).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: D.Wu* (Raised: $1332K; CoH: $273K).  R: R.Cornilles (Raised: $932K; CoH: $177K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
110. NY-04 (Overall Rank: 126).  PVI: D+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: C.McCarthy* (Raised: $1553K; CoH: $541K).  R: F.Becker (Raised: $171K; CoH: $21K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
111. MA-05 (Overall Rank: 127).  PVI: D+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: N.Tsongas* (Raised: $1703K; CoH: $521K).  R: J.Golnik (Raised: $301K; CoH: $69K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
112. MI-15 (Overall Rank: 128).  PVI: D+13.  Total Vulnerability Score: 20.  Consensus Rating: .  D: J.Dingell* (Raised: $1676K; CoH: $799K).  R: R.Steele (Raised: $663K; CoH: $318K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
113. UT-02 (Overall Rank: 130).  PVI: R+15.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: J.Matheson* (Raised: $1687K; CoH: $334K).  R: M.Philpot (Raised: $260K; CoH: $47K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
114. OR-04 (Overall Rank: 131).  PVI: D+1.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: P.DeFazio* (Raised: $1117K; CoH: $589K).  R: A.Robinson (Raised: $1071K; CoH: $119K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
115. ME-02 (Overall Rank: 132).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: M.Michaud* (Raised: $958K; CoH: $562K).  R: J.Levesque (Raised: $442K; CoH: $54K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
116. TX-25 (Overall Rank: 133).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: L.Doggett* (Raised: $1062K; CoH: $2823K).  R: D.Campbell (Raised: $580K; CoH: $166K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
117. TN-05 (Overall Rank: 134).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: J.Cooper* (Raised: $915K; CoH: $440K).  R: D.Hall (Raised: $340K; CoH: $26K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
118. WA-09 (Overall Rank: 136).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: A.Smith* (Raised: $858K; CoH: $283K).  R: D.Muri (Raised: $189K; CoH: $35K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
119. MA-06 (Overall Rank: 137).  PVI: D+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: J.Tierney* (Raised: $766K; CoH: $1437K).  R: W.Hudak (Raised: $724K; CoH: $95K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
120. NC-04 (Overall Rank: 138).  PVI: D+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: D.Price* (Raised: $844K; CoH: $399K).  R: B.Lawson (Raised: $373K; CoH: $87K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
121. OH-10 (Overall Rank: 139).  PVI: D+8.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: D.Kucinich* (Raised: $719K; CoH: $114K).  R: P.Corrigan (Raised: $273K; CoH: $28K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
122. NJ-06 (Overall Rank: 140).  PVI: D+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: F.Pallone* (Raised: $2109K; CoH: $4066K).  R: A.Little (Raised: $366K; CoH: $110K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
123. NM-03 (Overall Rank: 141).  PVI: D+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: B.Lujan* (Raised: $1093K; CoH: $198K).  R: T.Mullins (Raised: $326K; CoH: $70K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.

GOP Seats

Lean D Pickup
1. DE-AL (Overall Rank: 8).  PVI: D+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover.  D: J.Carney (Raised: $1903K; CoH: $666K).  R: G.Urquhart (Raised: $953K; CoH: $180K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
2. LA-02 (Overall Rank: 9).  PVI: D+25.  Total Vulnerability Score: 330.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover.  D: C.Richmond (Raised: $894K; CoH: $120K).  R: J.Cao* (Raised: $1863K; CoH: $322K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
3. IL-10 (Overall Rank: 22).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 293.  Consensus Rating: Lean D Takeover.  D: D.Seals (Raised: $2459K; CoH: $270K).  R: R.Dold (Raised: $2459K; CoH: $808K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.

Tossup
4. HI-01 (Overall Rank: 61).  PVI: D+9.  Total Vulnerability Score: 213.  Consensus Rating: Tossup.  D: C.Hanabusa (Raised: $2155K; CoH: $446K).  R: C.Djou* (Raised: $2307K; CoH: $383K).  Polls close: 11:00:00 PM.

Lean R Hold
5. FL-25 (Overall Rank: 76).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 160.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: J.Garcia (Raised: $1424K; CoH: $560K).  R: D.Rivera (Raised: $1742K; CoH: $273K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.
6. CA-03 (Overall Rank: 83).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 140.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: A.Bera (Raised: $2518K; CoH: $260K).  R: D.Lungren* (Raised: $1828K; CoH: $832K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.
7. PA-15 (Overall Rank: 85).  PVI: D+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 125.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: J.Callahan (Raised: $1866K; CoH: $366K).  R: C.Dent* (Raised: $2202K; CoH: $286K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
8. FL-12 (Overall Rank: 91).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 112.  Consensus Rating: Lean R Hold.  D: L.Edwards (Raised: $550K; CoH: $191K).  R: D.Ross (Raised: $1063K; CoH: $210K).  Polls close: 6:00:00 PM.

Lean/Likely R Hold
9. WA-08 (Overall Rank: 92).  PVI: D+3.  Total Vulnerability Score: 110.  Consensus Rating: Lean/Likely R Hold.  D: S.Del Bene (Raised: $3761K; CoH: $195K).  R: D.Reichert* (Raised: $2383K; CoH: $607K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.

Likely R Hold
10. AZ-03 (Overall Rank: 110).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: J.Hulburd (Raised: $1318K; CoH: $346K).  R: B.Quayle (Raised: $2119K; CoH: $248K).  Polls close: 9:00:00 PM.
11. PA-06 (Overall Rank: 112).  PVI: D+4.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: M.Trivedi (Raised: $1312K; CoH: $289K).  R: J.Gerlach* (Raised: $1954K; CoH: $368K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
12. NE-02 (Overall Rank: 113).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 65.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: T.White (Raised: $945K; CoH: $100K).  R: L.Terry* (Raised: $1811K; CoH: $268K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
13. MN-06 (Overall Rank: 117).  PVI: R+6.  Total Vulnerability Score: 50.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: T.Clark (Raised: $4208K; CoH: $614K).  R: M.Bachmann* (Raised: $11135K; CoH: $2453K).  Polls close: 8:00:00 PM.
14. OH-12 (Overall Rank: 118).  PVI: E.  Total Vulnerability Score: 45.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: P.Brooks (Raised: $1380K; CoH: $409K).  R: P.Tiberi* (Raised: $2805K; CoH: $1090K).  Polls close: 6:30:00 PM.
15. CA-45 (Overall Rank: 119).  PVI: R+2.  Total Vulnerability Score: 45.  Consensus Rating: Likely R Hold.  D: S.Pougnet (Raised: $1687K; CoH: $197K).  R: M.Bono-Mack* (Raised: $2216K; CoH: $792K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.

Other Longshots
16. AL-05 (Overall Rank: 123).  PVI: R+11.  Total Vulnerability Score: 30.  Consensus Rating: .  D: S.Raby (Raised: $859K; CoH: $344K).  R: M.Brooks (Raised: $832K; CoH: $383K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
17. MI-03 (Overall Rank: 129).  PVI: R+7.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: P.Miles (Raised: $678K; CoH: $116K).  R: J.Amash (Raised: $819K; CoH: $104K).  Polls close: 7:00:00 PM.
18. CA-44 (Overall Rank: 135).  PVI: R+5.  Total Vulnerability Score: 15.  Consensus Rating: .  D: B.Hedrick (Raised: $493K; CoH: $48K).  R: K.Calvert* (Raised: $1597K; CoH: $483K).  Polls close: 10:00:00 PM.

Originally posted to Superribbie on Fri Oct 29, 2010 at 07:38 PM PDT.

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