This is the first year for early voting in Maryland. I found myself wondering if the early voting count (released soon after the polls close) is a good predictor of the end results for local offices.
I started with county commissioner, a "vote for three of six" choice, added court clerk (one of the few contested local elections), and moved on to two state delegate races and the Andy Harris - Frank Kratovil Congressional contest.
No valid statistical methods were harmed in preparing this report.
I decided to compare very local results on up the scale to state offices and congress. I posted this in a diary last night while I was waiting on precincts to report ...
Early voting assigned the following percentages to different candidates:
Six candidates for county commissioner; vote for three.
R-(Al) : 23.83%
State Delegate; vote for two.
R-Andy : 37.87%
Not much to do now except see how things look when more precincts are in.
So .... How did it all line up?
The scheme is Party-Name-: EV% - Final % as in
D-(Ron): X% ... Y% The name label is only there to keep me from becoming confused & disoriented entering the data.
Commissioner; vote for three.
R-Al : 23.83% ... 23.5%
D-Ron: 17.73% ... 18.42%
D-Bil: 17.43% ... 16.72%
R-Wat: 16.10% ... 15.56%
Mumm: 71.29% ... 72.08%
Fitz: 28.65% ... 27.86%
R-Mike: 52.30% ... 55.12%
D-Bill: 47.70% ... 44.82%
R-Jay: 54.20% ... 59.58%
D-Art: 45.80% ... 40.35%
D-Frank: 60.17% ... 55.46%
R-Andy : 37.87% ... 41.33%
And So ...
Uncannily accurate for the local commissioner and clerk races.
Correct finish, but closer than final poll results, for the two Delegate positions. "Mike" and "Bill" are district delegates from an adjoining county and are not local residents, but we vote for all three delegates from our overall district.
"Jay" is a popular local mayor with very strong name recognition in the county.
The third race was decided in the primary since there was no Democratic candidate at all. It has been omitted.
As for the local tally for Congress, even though Kratovil lost in MD-01, he was a local favorite. Here the early spread was wider than the final polling.
Anyone care to offer any analysis?
I think I will check a couple more counties' EV and Election Day tabulations to see if the local/delegate correlations carry over there too.