After a flurry of hope that Marco Rubio might just save them from their worst nightmare, members of the Republican establishment woke up Wednesday morning to the reality that it's back to the dilemma they were grappling with three weeks ago: Donald Trump vs. Ted Cruz. With Jeb! Bush promising scorched earth against fellow "moderates" Marco Rubio and John Kasich, they’re preparing themselves to just give in to Trump.
The establishment picture is now more clouded than ever, with Rubio, Jeb Bush, and New Hampshire runner-up John Kasich heading for a brutal fight in South Carolina – a state known for its rough-and-tumble political culture. Chris Christie, who was also competing for establishment support, is reassessing his campaign’s future.
All of this, many in the mainstream wing of the GOP worry, is excellent news for one man: Donald Trump.
“This is the perfect storm for Trump,” said Matt Dowd, who served as chief strategist on George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign. “He got his poll numbers, won by double digits, recovered from a loss, and has multiple opponents. You couldn’t design a better scenario for him.”
By the time the party gets around to unifying around a mainstream contender, Dowd added, it’s possible Trump will have gained enough momentum to be unstoppable.
They're also heading into South Carolina and a bunch of southern states where Ted Cruz, who seems to have successfully positioned himself as the evangelical candidate despite his rather un-Christian behavior, is likely to run strong and to benefit from Kasich-Bush-Rubio vote splitting—if Kasich manages to hang on that long. If he does, says former Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer, that spells nothing but good news for Trump, too. "Kasich coming in second and the bunching up in low double digits of the mainstream candidates is a dream come true for Trump,” says Fleischer. “His opposition divides and he conquers.”
On the other hand, Jeb!'s got plenty of money to burn (or at least his Super PAC does) and seems determined to bring Rubio and Kasich down. None of the three have shown any aptitude for taking on Trump.
Maybe, just maybe, the powers that be in the GOP will begin processing just what they've done to the Republican party by turning it over to the nihilists and the maniacs. Maybe. And they'll have a Trump or Cruz nomination to show for it.