We’ve seen a fair amount of new state-level polling, so we’re starting to get a better picture of the state of the race. And that picture says “holy shit Donald Trump is getting his ass kicked” while Donnie sits around looking befuddled. Note that I’ve moved from RCP averages to Pollster.com ones, so the trends aren’t exactly apples-to-apples, but they should be close enough for our purposes.
2016 BATTLEGROUND PRESIDENTIAL MATCHUPS
|
6/30 |
6/10 |
5/12 |
US |
C+7 |
C+4.6 |
C+3.6 |
AZ (11) |
C+1 |
C+1 |
C+3.5 |
CO (9) |
n/a |
N/A |
N/A |
FL (29) |
C+6 |
C+1.6 |
C+4.3 |
GA (16) |
T+3 |
T+4.2 |
T+5 |
IA (6) |
C+4 |
C+4 |
C+4 |
MI (16) |
C+8 |
C+8.3 |
C+10.5 |
MO (10) |
T+3 |
T+5 |
T+7 |
NM (5) |
n/a |
N/A |
N/A |
NC (15) |
TIED |
T+1 |
C+3.3 |
NV (6) |
n/a |
N/A |
N/A |
NH (4) |
C+6 |
C+6.5 |
C+9.8 |
OH (18) |
C+3 |
C+1.4 |
C+3 |
PA (20) |
C+4.4 |
C+4 |
C+7 |
VA (13) |
C+3.2 |
C+4.3 |
C+13 |
WI (10) |
C+9.5 |
C+11.6 |
C+11.5 |
Update: Sorry it wasn’t clear: “C” means Clinton, “T” means Trump.
If you’re the Donnster, you can get pretty excited that you’re clinging to small leads in Georgia and Missouri. That’s an accomplishment for someone as noxious as that asshole. But what that chart doesn’t show is how low Trump’s support is everywhere, exceeding 40 percent in just Florida (41%), Georgia (43%), Missouri (41%), and North Carolina (43%). His path to 50+1 percent is so distant, it’s unfathomable to conceive of him getting there.
That right there is a 343-195 electoral college vote. And being down six in Florida, more than anything else, makes his path to victory even more daunting. Without Florida, Trump would have to win Arizona, Iowa (or Nevada), Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia to tie 269-269. To win outright he’d have to add Nevada or New Hampshire to that total.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is advertising in Nebraska. That tells you as much about the state of the race as all the numbers in that chart above.