According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the economy created far more new jobs in June than in any of the previous months of 2016, vastly exceeding the expectations of a consensus of experts surveyed earlier this week by Bloomberg and reversing a three-month downward trend.
The bureau reported Friday that the economy expanded by 287,000 new jobs in June, the best showing since October last year. Of the total, 265,000 were in the private sector, 22,000 in government. June marks the 69th consecutive month of overall job growth, and the 75th month of private-sector job growth. Meanwhile, the bureau revised May’s growth in new jobs from 38,000 to 11,000, and April’s growth from 123,000 to 144,000.
The official unemployment rate, the headline rate, which the bureau calculates from a different survey and labels U3, rose to 4.9 percent. The jobless rate isn’t the same for everyone: Adult men: 4.5 percent; Adult women: 4.5 percent ; Whites: 4.4 percent; Blacks: 8.6 percent; Asians: 3.5 percent; Hispanics: 5.8 percent; American Indians: (not counted monthly); Teenagers: 16 percent; (Among teenagers of color, the unemployment rate is typically much higher.)
Besides U3, the bureau also estimates both unemployment and underemployment in a category it calls U6 In this category are people with no job, part-time workers who want a full-time job but can't find one, and some of the nation’s "discouraged" workers. In June, U6 fell to 9.6 percent.
The civilian workforce in June climbed by 414,000 after having fallen by 458,000 in May and risen by 362,000 in April. The employment-population ratio fell to 59.6 percent, and the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7 percent.
With June’s total, average wages have risen by 2.6 percent in 2016.
The BLS sets a "confidence level" in its estimate, which runs at plus or minus 105,000 jobs. This means the "real" number of new jobs created in June was not 287,000 but ranged between 182,000 jobs and 392,000.
The bureau also calculates the job situation for Americans aged 25-54. More than people in any other age category, those in this one are the most likely to have a job or be looking for one. The employment-population ratio for the 25-54 age group reached its all-time high of 81.9 percent in April 2000. When the Great Recession begin in December 2007, the ratio had fallen to 79.7 percent. It sank to a bottom of 74.8 percent in November 2010. Since then, it had been rising gradually. In June it remained unchanged at 77.8 percent.
The Economic Policy Institute reports:
In today’s labor market, the unemployment rate drastically understates the weakness of job opportunities. This is due to the existence of a large pool of“missing workers”–potential workers who, because of weak job opportunities, are neither employed nor actively seeking a job. In other words, these are people who would be either working or looking for work if job opportunities were significantly stronger. Because jobless workers are only counted as unemployed if they are actively seeking work, these “missing workers” are not reflected in the unemployment rate.
The updated EPI figures: 2,630,000 missing workers. If these workers were looking for jobs, the unemployment rate would be 6.4 percent.
ADDITIONAL ASPECTS OF THE APRIL JOB REPORT:
Hours & Wages
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees 4 cents an hour to $21.51 in June.
• Average work week for all employees on non-farm payrolls remained unchanged for the fifth month in a row in June—at 34.4 hours.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose 2 cents an hour in June to $25.61.
• The manufacturing workweek in June fell slightly to 40.7 hours.
• The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private non-farm payrolls in June was unchanged at 33.6 hours.
Job gains and losses in June for selected categories:
- Professional services: + 38,000
- Temporary help services: + 15,200
- Transportation & warehousing: - 9,400
- Financial activities: + 16,000
- Leisure & hospitality: + 59,000
- Information: + 44,000
- Education and health services: + 59,000
- Health care & social assistance: + 58,400
- Retail trade: + 29,900
- Construction: 0
- Manufacturing: + 14,000
- Mining and Logging: - 5,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in June for the previous 10 years compared with this June’s gain of 11,000.
June 2006: + 82,000
June 2007: + 78,000
June 2008: - 165,000
June 2009: - 470,000
June 2010: - 133,000
June 2011: + 235,000
June 2012: + 87,000
June 2013: + 146,000
June 2014: + 306,000
June 2015: + 228,000