The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● AL-Sen: On Tuesday night, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Roy Moore edged Sen. Luther Strange 39-33 in the GOP primary for the special election for the final three years of now-Attorney General Jeff Sessions' term, meaning the two will advance to a Sept. 26 runoff. Rep. Mo Brooks finished a distant third with just 20 percent of the vote. The eventual Republican nominee will face off in December against former U.S. Attorney Doug Jones, who crushed businessman Robert Kennedy 66-18 in the Democratic primary and avoided a runoff by taking an outright majority.
Strange, who had served as Alabama's attorney general, was elevated to the Senate in February to fill the vacancy created when Sessions joined Trump's cabinet. The sketchy circumstances of Strange's appointment by then-Gov. Robert Bentley only served to reinforce widely (and rightly) held beliefs about the deep corruption in Alabama politics: Strange's own office had been investigating allegations that Bentley had used state resources to cover up an affair, but Strange blithely sought and accepted the coveted Senate job despite the deep impropriety. Indeed, Strange even tried to pretend as though he wasn't investigating Bentley—a ruse that he dropped once he got to Washington, and not long before Bentley resigned in disgrace under threat of impeachment.
Strange's scuzzy selection brought widespread condemnation from Alabama Republicans and may have helped inspire Moore, Brooks, and a handful of minor figures to run against him. But it didn't deter one very important person: Mitch McConnell, who went all-out to make sure this junior-most member of his caucus would avoid getting shown the door after just a few months in office.
Early polling suggested that Moore, long popular with social conservatives for his strident anti-gay views that ultimately got him removed from the bench a second time last year, would take the first slot in the runoff, making Brooks the real obstacle for Strange. Consequently, McConnell's allied super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, spent millions on ads that portrayed Brooks, who'd supported Ted Cruz in last year's presidential primary, as an enemy of Trump. (Some juicy quotes of Brooks attacking Trump as untrustworthy were repurposed to make the congressman look like a foot soldier for Nancy Pelosi.) Brooks protested bitterly but to no avail.
But Strange still faces tough sledding in the second round. Moore is an undisciplined campaigner who's raised little money, but his reputation and name recognition alone make him a formidable opponent. However, McConnell's PAC had already started targeting Moore even before the primary and will almost certainly keep spending heavily on Strange's behalf, so Strange won't lack for resources. It'll also be worth keeping an eye on what Brooks does, since he certainly doesn't have any warm feelings about Strange right now—something he even expressed in his concession speech.
A Moore victory would be a deep humiliation for McConnell, but whoever prevails is still likely to beat Jones, just given how dark red Alabama is. But special elections in the age of Trump have been particularly volatile, so if Moore were to emerge from a particularly bloody runoff, things could get more interesting than they otherwise ought to be.
Senate
● MO-Sen: On Tuesday, RealClearPolitics reported that Missouri state Treasurer Eric Schmitt won't run for Senate next year against Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill, helping to clear the way for state Attorney General Josh Hawley in the Republican primary. Like Hawley, Schmitt was just elected to statewide office last year, but both were quickly talked up as potential candidates for higher office. National and state GOP leaders have focused intently on getting Hawley to run, and he formed an exploratory committee last month.
● WI-Sen: Businessman Kevin Nicholson is so far the only noteworthy Republican to have joined next year's race against Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, and the first-time candidate earned an endorsement from the Club for Growth on Tuesday. As a former president of the College Democrats of America, Nicholson's conversion to become a conservative Republican has still left some potential rivals with skepticism. However, the support of the hardline anti-tax Club should help assuage some of the fears over whether Nicholson is ideologically pure. Even if this endorsement doesn't win over his intra-party critics, the Club has a record of putting its money where its mouth is in the form of spending big on campaign ads.
Gubernatorial
● FL-Gov: Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson, who represents a heavily black district in Miami, endorsed Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum on Tuesday in the Democratic primary for governor. Gillum's campaign has struggled in recent months amid a criminal investigation into his office's allegedly improper email usage, and his top campaign staffers suddenly quit in July. However, a grand jury cleared the mayor of any wrongdoing last week, and new endorsements could help signal to donors that his campaign is turning things around.
● IA-Gov: On Monday, former Iowa City Mayor Ross Wilburn became the latest Democrat to launch a campaign to challenge Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds next year. Wilburn served on the council in Iowa City from 2000 to 2011, and he was chosen as mayor from 2006 to 2007, making him the first African American to hold that position. He's currently the associate program director and diversity officer at Iowa State University Extension and Outreach.
With so many candidates in this primary, we almost could just start reporting on which Democrats aren’t running. In all seriousness, one of those Democrats is state Rep. Todd Prichard, who announced on Tuesday that he is suspending his campaign and will seek re-election to the state House.
An Iraq War veteran, Prichard had won re-election by 54-46 in a rural northeastern Iowa district that zoomed rightward from 56-43 Obama to 57-38 Trump last year, and he may have been a strong contender to win back those same sorts of voters who turned Iowa red in 2016. However, with such a crowded gubernatorial primary field, Prichard likely just found it too hard to cut through the clutter, and state House Democrats will likely be pleased to not have to defend his legislative seat next year without an incumbent.
We really weren't kidding when we said a boatload of Democrats are in the running; the current field also includes former state party chair Andy McGuire, well-connected businessman and donor Fred Hubbell, ex-Gov. Tom Vilsack's former chief of staff John Norris, former Des Moines School Board President Jonathan Neiderbach, and state Sen. Nate Boulton, while union leader Cathy Glasson has formed an exploratory committee. With so many candidates, there's a good chance that nobody exceeds the 35 percent of the vote in the primary needed to win the nomination outright. If that happens, there will be a party convention to determine the nominee, which could further scramble the race.
● KS-Gov: Democratic state House Minority Leader Jim Ward had previously said he was considering running for Kansas governor next year, and he recently stated that he'll make an announcement on Aug. 19 about his future plans. Ward has represented Wichita in the state House since the 2002 election, and he could cut into former Wichita Mayor Carl Brewer's base in the primary if he does decide to join the race. Brewer and former state Agriculture Secretary Josh Svaty are currently the only noteworthy Democratic candidates who are running.
House
● FL-07: On Monday, Florida's Republican Sen. Marco Rubio gave his endorsement to state Rep. Mike Miller in the GOP primary for the nomination to take on first-term Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy in this suburban Orlando-area seat, which favored Clinton 51-44 but backed Obama by just a handful of votes. Miller currently faces businessman Scott Sturgill in the primary, while state Sen. David Simmons has repeatedly indicated that he is also likely to run for Republicans.
● KS-02: Former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis, who was the 2014 Democratic gubernatorial nominee, launched his campaign for Kansas' 2nd Congressional District on Tuesday, giving the party a solid recruit for the race to replace retiring Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins. Davis lost by just 50-46 statewide when he challenged Republican Gov. Sam Brownback in the 2014 GOP wave, but he actually won by 51-45 in the 2nd District, which includes Topeka and rural eastern Kansas outside of the Kansas City area.
The 2nd voted for Trump by a brutal 56-37 margin, meaning it won't be easy for a Democrat to win. However, Brownback's horrifically unpopular policy experiment in radical conservatism has badly damaged the Republican brand in Kansas, at least at the state level. Following Democrats' shocking performance in last April's 4th District special election, where they held the GOP to just a 52-46 victory in a seat that had backed Trump by an even redder 60-33, Team Blue may have a better chance of victory in a bluer seat like the 2nd.
Voters tend to be more open to splitting their tickets in state races than in federal ones, so Davis will have to convince many Trump-voting Republicans to cross over and vote for a Democrat for federal office. That may be easier said than done, since Republican attacks against Davis that try to tie him to national Democratic Party leaders could have more potency than when he was attempting to oust an unpopular governor. Indeed, Davis himself said he would not vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker if elected, an indication that the San Francisco congresswoman could be a liability in this red seat.
However, this seat did flip to Democrats as recently as the 2006 wave election, and given how 2018 is shaping up to be another Democratic-favoring midterm under an unpopular Republican president, it's possible that lightning could strike twice here.
● NM-02: Republican Monty Newman, a former state party chair and ex-mayor of the town of Hobbs (population: 38,000) in New Mexico's southeastern corner, launched his campaign on Monday to succeed outgoing GOP Rep. Steve Pearce in southern New Mexico's 2nd District. Newman ran for the 2nd back in 2008 when it was last an open seat, but he lost the primary by 31-21 to businessman Edward Tinsley, who went on to lose the general election in that year's Democratic wave. Newman currently runs a real estate company, though it's unclear if he's capable of any self-funding.
This seat voted for Trump by 50-40 and should favor Republicans next year, though Democrats might have a shot if 2018 turns into a truly Democratic-leaning midterm under an unpopular Republican president. Newman joins a GOP primary that already includes state Land Commissioner Aubrey Dunn, state Rep. Yvette Herrell, and former Eddy County Commissioner Jack Volpato.
Grab Bag
● Pres-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation comes to Maine, where the GOP holds a one-seat majority in the state Senate and Democrats have a small edge in the state House. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new data sets; you can also find all of our calculations from 2016 and past cycles here.
The Democrats controlled both the House and Senate from 2003 until the 2010 GOP wave, when Team Red flipped the governorship and the legislature. Democrats took back both chambers in 2012, but in 2014, LePage won a second term and Republicans once again took control of the Senate. Democrats maintained a small edge in the House in 2014, and they managed to keep it in 2016 even as Maine sharply lurched right, going from a decisive 56-41 statewide win for Obama to a tight 48-45 scrape for Clinton.
Republicans currently hold an 18-17 majority in the Senate, while Democrats have a 75-71 edge in the House, where five additional members do not identify with either party. (The Maine House also has three additional non-voting members who each represent a local Native American tribe.) The entire Senate and House are up every two years. Legislators in both chambers are termed-out of office after serving four consecutive terms, but the clock resets once they've been out of office for one full term. LePage is termed out next year as well, so 2018 could bring a sea change in Maine politics in one direction or the other.
Until recently, Maine drew its state legislative seats on an unusual timetable, waiting a full election cycle after the Census to put new lines in place. As a result, the state's current districts were only first put to use in 2014, rather than in 2012 as they would have been elsewhere. However, a 2011 voter-approved law adjusted the calendar to bring the timing in line with most of rest of the country. Accordingly, Maine will draw its new seats for 2022 in 2021 and every ten years after that. In 2013, both chambers overwhelmingly approved the current maps, and LePage signed them into law.
Now, to the numbers. We'll start with a look at the Senate, where Clinton carried 18 of 35 seats. Five Republicans hold Clinton districts, while four Democrats represent Trump turf. Remarkably, Trump's second-best seat in the entire state, SD-02, is held by freshman Democrat Michael Carpenter; last year, Carpenter won this seat, which is dominated by Aroostook County in the northern part of the state, 52-48 even as SD-02 backed Trump 62-32. Democrat William Diamond, who has served off-and-on in the Senate for decades, also holds a very Trumpy seat. He won his second consecutive term 62-38 even as his Cumberland County district went for Trump 51-42.
State Senate Minority Leader Troy Jackson, who regained his seat 52-48 last year after an unsuccessful 2014 congressional bid, holds a rural seat that voted for Trump 51-43. In 2014, Democrat Shenna Bellows badly lost a bid for the U.S. Senate to Republican Sen. Susan Collins, but she ran for the state Senate last year. Bellows won her Kennebec County seat 45-37, with an independent taking 18 percent, even as the district voted for Trump 47-45.
Of the five Republicans in Clinton districts, three of them hold seats where her margin of victory was less than 1 percent. This includes state Senate President Michael Thibodeau, who won 52-48 as his Waldo County seat supported Clinton by a very narrow 46.3-45.7 margin; Thibodeau will be termed-out in 2018. This makes the Maine Senate one of the rare chambers where the Democratic leader holds a Trump seat while the GOP leader holds a Clinton district. Ronald Collins, who won his fourth term 55-45 in a 47-46 Clinton seat, is also termed-out next year.
As for the two Republicans who hold districts that are decidedly bluer, Amy Volk won her second term 59-41 in a seat that went 52-42 Clinton, while Brian Langley won 56-44 in a seat that backed her 53-41. Langley will be termed-out next year, so his Hancock County SD-07 could be a pivotal battleground. However, both sides have plenty of targets for next year and no room for error, though the tendency of many Mainers to split their tickets makes things messy to predict.
We'll now turn to the state House, which is … complicated. Maine's secretary of state provides presidential election results by town and by city but doesn't split the results further into individual wards or precincts. Unfortunately, while some communities like Portland do break their presidential results down by ward, most don't.
This is most pronounced in the city of Bangor, Maine's third-largest. HD-124 includes a large chunk of Bangor and a small bit of nearby Orono, while House Districts 125, 126, and 127 are located entirely in Bangor. The city does not break their presidential results down by ward or precinct, so there was simply no way to tell which parts of the city voted for which presidential candidate. As a result, we had to treat the entire city as though it were one giant split precinct.
As a consequence, for the three districts contained completely within Bangor, we have no choice but to estimate that all of them backed Clinton by the same margin she carried the city as a whole, 53-39. (The vote totals in each district, however, are different.) By contrast, thankfully, the state Senate map splits only a few communities, and Bangor is entirely located in just one district, SD-09.
Bangor is the most extreme example of this problem, but it's far from the only moderately sized community to group all its results into just one precinct. We're confident our results are as precise as they can get, but until Maine changes the bizarre way it provides results for its elections, we have to regard our calculations for the state House as having a greater margin of error than we do for any other chamber in the country.
With all that in mind, let's take a look at the actual numbers. Unlike in the Senate, where Clinton carried a bare majority of the chamber, Trump won 82 of 151 seats. Eighteen Democrats represent Trump seats, while eight Republicans hold Clinton turf. The reddest Democratic-held seat is HD-138, where Democrat Robert Alley won a second term 52-48 in a 59-34 Trump seat. The bluest GOP-held seat is HD-09, where Stedman Seavey won his second term 50.5-49.5 in a 57-37 Clinton seat.
Of the five representatives who don't identify with a party, four come from Clinton seats, but only two of them were elected without a party label in 2016, while the other three have since dropped their former affiliations. Freshman Kent Ackley, running as a "Common Sense Independent," beat a Republican 53-47 as Trump was taking his seat 58-34, while freshman Owen Casas beat his Democratic foe 50.1-49.9 in a 68-27 Clinton seat.
Since Election Day, two Democratic representatives and one Republican have become independents. Clinton's worst performance in any of these three seats was a 58-35 victory. This means that state Rep. Kevin Battle, a former Republican who often sided with Democrats on key issues, sits in a Clinton district. His HD-33 went for Clinton 63-31, which might help explain his party switch.